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Airports and Airport Security - International - March 2008

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Mar. 1, 2008 - 117 Pages


Table of Contents


Introduction

Distinguishing between safety and security

Key findings

Acronyms



Economic Outlook

Current outlook for GDP growth

Figure 1: Real GDP growth rate in %, 2005-09

Risk of falling real estate prices

Short-term interest rates

Figure 2: Trend & outlook for short-term interest rates*, 2006-08

Long-term interest rates

Figure 3: The outlook for long-term interest rates, 2007-08

Surging oil prices

Exchange rates

Figure 4: Average exchange rates against the Euro, 2006-08

Spending on travel and tourism to 2017

Figure 5: Travel & tourism expenditure worldwide, 2007-17

Forecast for international tourism movements and spending

Outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020

Figure 6: Outbound trips (millions) by region of origin, 1990-2020

Inbound arrivals by destination

Figure 7: Arrivals (millions) by region of origin, 1990-2020

Incoming receipts growth

Figure 8: Incoming receipts by region, 2003-20

Top ten countries for outbound trips

Figure 9: Top ten countries for outbound departures in 2005 & 2020

Top ten countries for outbound expenditure

Figure 10: Top ten countries for outbound expenditure in 2005 & 2020

Top ten inbound countries for inbound arrivals

Figure 11: Top ten countries for inbound arrivals in 2005 & 2020

Top ten countries for incoming receipts

Figure 12: Top ten markets for incoming receipts in 2005 & 2020

The fastest-growing outbound markets and destinations

Figure 13: The ten fastest-growing outbound countries for departures and spend, 2005-20

Figure 14: The ten fastest-growing destinations for arrivals and receipts, 2005-20

Forecast trips and spend by the 30 main outbound countries

Figure 15: Trips and spend by country of origin, 2005-20

Forecast arrivals and receipts in the 32 main destination countries

Figure 16: Forecast arrivals and receipts by 32 main destination countries, 2005-20



Issues and Trends

Traffic growth

Figure 17: Trend in worldwide air passenger movements, 2000-06

Network expansion

Regional trends

Figure 18: Forecast air traffic growth for 2007

Passengers

Figure 19: International traffic results by airline region of registration, Nov 2006-Nov 2007

Premium travel languishing

Air freight

Competition from other transport modes

Air freight profitability

Air freight by region

The largest airports in the world

Passengers

Denver boosted by low-cost traffic

Figure 20: The world’s leading airports ranked by passenger movements, 2006

Aircraft movements

Figure 21: The world’s leading airports ranked by aircraft movements*, 2006

Freight

Memphis is number one

Hong Kong

Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport

Figure 22: The world’s leading airports ranked by cargo tonnes transported, 2006

Airport management

Marketing airports

Greensboro subsidises carriers

Budget airlines heavily subsidised

Airport revenue streams

Figure 23: Sources of airport operating revenues, 2007

‘Dual till’ accounting

Slot allocation

Figure 24: share of flights of top three carriers at major airports in Europe and the US, 2005

Alitalia sells Heathrow slots at record prices

A slot auction at JFK?

Non-aeronautical activities

Airport retailing and food & beverage goes upmarket

Airport hotels

Airport charges

Fee structures

Airport fee consultation procedure in Italy

Airport fees average 4% of airline costs, but higher for LCCs

Ryanair critical of ‘monopoly airports’

IATA lobbies for lower airport charges

Regulation airport charges in UK

Stansted will continue to be regulated

Manchester ‘deregulated’ but under pressure from competition

Ryanair attracted by low fees at Birmingham

Owner/operator trends

Asia-Pacific

Australia

China

Europe

Austria

Denmark

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

Figure 25: TAV Airports Holding’s shareholder structure, 2007

UK

Latin America

Argentina

Nicaragua

North America

Chicago Midway Airport

Canada

Mexico

Economic impact of airports

Figure 26: The economic impact of the air transport industry, 2007

Employment

Figure 27: Employment at airports worldwide, 2005

The economic impact of the airport transport industry by region

Figure 28: Breakdown of the economic contribution of the air transport industry by region, 2004

UK

Heathrow creates over 170,000 jobs

Figure 29: Jobs created directly and indirectly by London Heathrow, 2005

Environmental sustainability

Noise

Emissions control and energy conservation

Global aviation environmental standards



Airport Security


Layers of security

Figure 30: The TSA’s 20 layers of airport security

The Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF)

The ‘No-fly List’

The No-Fly List criticised

Validity questioned

Secure Flight

Figure 31: Comparison of CAPPS II and Secure Flight capabilities, 2006

‘Vetting and credentialing’ rationalised

How Secure Flight would work

Passengers to be categorised

Mounting opposition to Secure Flight

Key legislators and government officials also question the programme’s viability

Too costly, not enough time

Secondary Security Screening Selection

Procedure when selected

Randomness and credibility

VIPR teams

The TSA’s canine team

Behaviour detection officers

SPOT’s track record

Ethnic profiling

Federal Flight Deck Officer Program

Passenger screening

Metal detectors

Ten fingerprints from foreign travellers entering the US

The UK’s e-Borders programme

Figure 32: e-Borders implementation schedule, 2008-14

Baggage screening

100% passenger baggage screening

Canada had 100% baggage screening before the deadline

One-bag rule revoked

Human resources issues

Vetting of applicants

The Transportation Security Clearinghouse

New vetting requirements creating a bottleneck

BAA spends £250 million a year on security

Securing the building, parking areas, runways and surroundings

BAA’s number plate recognition

Screening for car bombs

Roving security patrols

Developments in scanning technology

Backscatters do virtual ‘strip searches’

Issues involving the use of backscatters

Biometric security applications in airports

Employee access control is the main use now

Figure 33: Use of biometric identification in the world’s largest airports*, 2007

TSA biometric product testing and standards

TSA qualification testing

miSense at Heathrow

miSense passenger flow sequence

Subsequent journeys

miSense - summary of results

miSense plus

miSense all clear

International regulatory requirements

The IATA’s air travel security standards

The ‘Simplifying Passenger Travel’ initiative

Key opportunities

Figure 34: Electronic ticketing penetration by airlines in IATA BSPs*, 2006-07

ICAO security audits

The audit process

Aviation Security Mechanism

Technical Co-operation Programme

Audit follow-up missions

Travel disruption now a major issue

Ryanair descries airport mismanagement

UK airports losing share due to restrictive rules

Uproar over continued delays at UK airports

Figure 35: UK airport guide for security duration, 2007

Decline in satisfaction with baggage handling at US airports

Figure 36: Customer satisfaction ranking* at large** US airports, 2007

Do monopolies reduce passenger satisfaction?

Monopoly theory contradicted by JD Power study

Dealing with travel disruption

Registered passenger schemes

Privium Club

CANPASS Air

The UK’s Project IRIS

The TSA’s Registered Traveller (RT) programme

Participating sponsoring entities

Clear

Figure 37: Cost* of Clear membership, 2008

Online registration

Check-in by mobile phone

Finnair

Japan Airlines (JAL)

All Nippon Airways (ANA)

Air Canada

Spanair’s link with Vodafone

Creating an industry standard



Airport Development and Expansion Projects

Africa

Angola

A new airport at Luanda

A US$400-million investment programme

Libya

Morocco

South Africa

Johannesburg International Airport (JIA)

New airport at Durban

Tunisia

Asia Pacific

Australia

Brisbane Airport

Sydney Airport

China

97 more regional airports by 2020

Congestion at the big hubs remains the real problem

Bottlenecks due to lack of qualified manpower?

India

Mumbai and New Delhi

Slum clearance project

Figure 38: Summary of India’s major airport infrastructure projects, April 2007

Hyderabad’s new airport

Figure 39: Trend in air passenger traffic at Hyderabad, 2002-07

Greater Noida

Indonesia

Kuala Namu International Airport

An international airport in Kertajati

Japan

Tokyo Haneda Airport

Naha Airport

Malaysia

New Zealand

Pakistan

Philippines

Sri Lanka

Thailand

Vietnam

Europe

Planned capital expenditure at European airports 2006-15

Figure 40: Capital expenditure at European airports 2006-15 by type of expenditure, 2000-15

Figure 41: Future Capital expenditure at European airports by location, 2006-15

France

Figure 42: Aéroports de Paris investment programme by year, 2006-12

Capacity increase at Paris-Charles de Gaulle

Germany

Berlin

BBI’s financing and ownership structure

Frankfurt

Munich

Ireland

Pier D

Terminal 1

Terminal 2

Italy

Poland

Portugal

Lisbon’s new international airport to be located in Alcochete, not in Ota

Economic and financial factors decisive

Russia

A revived aircraft manufacturing sector?

Moscow

Spain

Canary Islands expansion project

Switzerland

UK

Heathrow

Heathrow East

Timeline for the currently planned development of Heathrow

A further £9-billion expansion?

Stansted

LCCs oppose the plan

Luton has abandoned its expansion plan

Birmingham

Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina

Brazil

Colombia

Two new regional airports

Haiti

Honduras

Panama

Uruguay

Middle East

Bahrain

Iraq

Karbala International Airport

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The Dubai World Central International Airport

Abu Dhabi International Airport

Sharjah

Sir Abu Nu’air

North America

Canada

Edmonton

US

Figure 43: Breakdown of projected capital expenditure at US airports by size/type, 2007-11

Inflation-impacting airport construction costs

Terminal capacity is the priority

Figure 44: Projected development costs by project location & size of hub, 2000-11

Figure 45: Projected development expenditure by project type, (US$ mn), 2007-11

Figure 46: Projected development expenditure by project type in %, 2007-11

FACT 1 & 2

Airports with near term capacity or delay constraints

Airports with longer-term potential capacity constraints

Figure 47: Airports likely to experience capacity problems by 2015 even ater planned improvements, 2007

Figure 48: Airports likely to experience capacity problems by 2025 even ater planned improvements, 2007

Chicago O’Hare

Figure 49: O’Hare airport’s master plan, 2005-25

Figure 50: The O'Hare modernization programme (OMP), 2007

Tampa, Florida



What Next?

Outlook for growth in passenger/freight traffic

Growth by region

Figure 51: Growth in passenger and freight traffic, 2007-11

Global air traffic shares in 2011

Figure 52: Global air passenger and air freight shares by route/region in 2011

Figure 53: Projected growth in passenger boardings at US airports (in millions), 2006-13*

Future growth in aircraft capacity

Deregulation and LCCs will drive growth

Passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries worth US$2.6 trillion

Figure 54: Total aircraft deliveries* by region, 2006-25

Figure 55: Top ten countries for passenger plane orders, 2006-25

The outlook for airport security

Abstract

Over the past half-century, airports have progressed from being stark airfields with military-like hangars to modern day centres of commerce. Airports have become key economic development drivers for regions and countries around the world. Retailing and other consumer services have become important revenue generators, alongside the core business of air transport. Securing airports and flights from criminal and terrorist actions has become a major pre-occupation of airport administrators, governments and key supra-national organisations, such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation - EUROCONTROL.

The two main objectives of this report are to provide an overview of the current state of airports around the world, with an emphasis on security issues. Growth trends in passenger movement and cargo transport are summarised and the biggest airports are ranked by several different criteria. Airport management is examined from the point of view of revenue diversification, as well as costs.

Owner/operator trends and the economic impact of airports, as well as environmental issues, are also studied. A summary of airport development projects by region worldwide has also been provided.

Regarding security, the mains themes include passenger and baggage screening, national and international regulatory requirements, human resource issues and dealing with traveller disruption caused by the increase in security procedures. The impact of technological evolution, particularly in the area of biometrics, as well as the development of registered passenger schemes on solving the problems created by enhanced security at airports has also been evaluated.


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