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Pakistan Food and Drink Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: May. 1, 2008 - 60 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Ratings - Q208
Pakistan’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Pakistan’s Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food And Drink
Pakistan Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Pakistan MGR Value Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure of Pakistan's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Outlet Sales By Format (US$mn), 2007
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies In The Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Pakistan Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Pakistan Food Sub-Sector Sales - Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Pakistan Food, Drink & Tobacco Sectoral Trade Forecasts (US$mn)
Drink
Table: Pakistan Beverage Sub-Sector Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Agriculture
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: Pakistan Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (’000 Tonnes)
Table: Pakistan Organic Agricultural Data
Table: Pakistan Dairy Industry Data (mn Litres, Unless
Table: Pakistan Milk Consumption By Format - 2006 E
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players Pakistan Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2007 Annual Sales Estimates
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players: Pakistan Food & Drink Sector, 2006
Regional Company Case Study
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Utility Stores Corporation (USC)
Food
Hilal Confectionery
Nestlé Pakistan
Unilever Pakistan
Drink
Coca-Cola Beverages Pakistan
Tapal Tea
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

Pakistan continues to represent a very high risk investment opportunity for food and beveragemanufacturers within the Asia Pacific region. The market once again places last in BMI’s Asia PacificFood & Drink Business Environment Ratings, which assess a market’s investment potential incomparison to its regional peers; its rating primarily being due to low existing consumption levels and thehigh economic and political risks facing investors looking to drive up these consumption levels.However, as BMI’s newly-published Q208 Pakistan Food & Drink Report discusses in more depth, thecountry does offer a glimmer of opportunity to confident and non-risk-adverse investors. Healthyeconomic growth, which is intrinsically linked to demand for non-essential food and beverage items, isone such opportunity. To 2012, BMI is forecasting average annual GDP growth of 6.7%. Coupled withhealthy population growth - BMI expects a population increase of 10.9% to 173.9mn in 2012 - and rapidurbanisation - the urban population is expected to account for 49.8% of the population in 2030, up from34.8% in 2005 - Pakistan provides a steadily emerging audience for food and drink manufacturers.

Keen to unsure that the benefits of emerging consumerism are felt beyond urban centres, the governmenthas proved keen to attract international investment in key food processing and agricultural sub-sectors,the dairy industry perhaps having been the primary beneficiary of these efforts to date. The first fewmonths of 2008 have seen a flurry of activity in the dairy sector. In February, the Pakistan DairyDevelopment Council, a public-private partnership (PPP), announced plans to accelerate its model dairyfarm development initiative with the aim of boosting both dairy output and quality. Other such measuresbeing explored to ensure that Pakistan’s contribution to global dairy exports matches its contribution toglobal dairy production include greater investment training and the establishment of more PPPs.

Thanks to the involvement of Swiss dairy giant Nestlé, development of Pakistan’s dairy sector has beenswift and efficient by typical local standards. The State Bank of Pakistan expects fresh milk production toincrease by 15.9% to 2010, although consumption growth will outstrip this at 17.4% to 2012, as slightlymore affluent consumers continue to demand dairy products more regularly.

Pakistan’s government now faces the challenge of attracting investment in other key agricultural subsectors.While its dairy forays certainly provide a useful template for how this should be achieved, there isone notable difference between this and other agricultural sub-sectors. Dairy lends itself well to thetransition from commodity producer to added-value manufacturer, more so than other agriculturalcommodities do. Pakistan’s considerable investment risks - among them perceived bureaucracy, poorinfrastructure, vulnerability to external shocks and low per capita GDP - may well prove more off-puttingwhen it comes to less immediately profitable sub-sectors.


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