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UK Retail Futures 2012: Electricals

Published by: Verdict Research Ltd

Published: Apr. 16, 2008 - 140 Pages


Table of Contents


CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key Findings

Main Conclusions



CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY

Expenditure Summary

Specialists Summary



CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES

Overview

Games Consoles & Software / Audio-visual to Drive Growth

Blu-ray - HD-DVD Format War Resolves

Digital Switchover

Specialists Continue to Underperform

Price Deflation Holds Back Market Severely

Other Sector Trends

Photographic & Optical Equipment

Digital Convergence

Satellite Navigation

Laptops



CHAPTER 4 ELECTRICALS SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK

Retail Sales

Sources of Sales Growth

Share of Total Sales

Store Numbers

Space Growth

Sales Densities



CHAPTER 5 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION

Sales & Spending

Forecast Changes for Major Sectors

Electricals Market Shares



CHAPTER 6 CATEGORY FORECASTS

Expenditure Summary

Expenditure Analysis

Expenditure Growth

Brown Goods

Audio-visual Equipment

Games Consoles and Software

Photographic & Optical Equipment

White Goods

Major Household Appliances

Minor Household Appliances

Grey Goods

Information Processing Equipment

Telephones & Fax Equipment



CHAPTER 7 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS

Key Messages

Gross Domestic Product - GDP

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Earnings Growth

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Real Household Disposable Income

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Employment

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Inflation

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Exchange Rates

How do they affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Interest Rates

How do they affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Savings Ratio

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Consumer Debt

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Equities

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

House Price Inflation

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Housing Equity Withdrawal

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?

Housing Transactions

How does it affect retail?

What's happened?

What will happen?



CHAPTER 8 UK RETAILING FORECASTS

Key Indicators

Retail Expenditure 1997-2012

Sales by Location 2007-2012

Sources of Growth 1997-2012

Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012

Space by Location 1997-2012

Sales Density by Location 1997-2012

Average Store Size 1997-2012

Average Store Sales 1997-2012

Online Retail Spending



CHAPTER 9 GLOSSARY

Terminology

Market Definition

Location Definitions

Town Centre

Out-of-town

Neighbourhood

Non-store retail

Forecasting Methodology

Abbreviations



List of Tables

Table 1: Electricals expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012

Table 2: Electricals specialists summary 2002, 2007 and 2012

Table 3: UK electricals growth by sub sector 2002-07 and 2007-12

Table 4: Timing of the digital switchover 2008-2012

Table 5: Electricals specialists sales 1997-2012

Table 6: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1997-2012

Table 7: Total selling space for electricals specialists 1997-2012

Table 8: Electricals channels of distribution by retailer type 2006, 2007 and 2012

Table 9: Electricals retailers market shares 2003-2008e

Table 10: Electricals expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012

Table 11: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012

Table 12: White goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012

Table 13: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012

Table 14: Total electricals expenditure 1997-2012

Table 15: Brown goods expenditure 1997-2012

Table 16: Audio-visual equipment expenditure 1997-2012

Table 17: Games consoles and software expenditure 1997-2012

Table 18: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure 1997-2012

Table 19: White goods expenditure 1997-2012

Table 20: Major household appliances expenditure 1997-2012

Table 21: Minor household appliances expenditure 1997-2012

Table 22: Grey goods expenditure 1997-2012

Table 23: Information processing equipment expenditure 1997-2012

Table 24: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure 1997-2012

Table 25: Economic drivers for retail 2008

Table 26: Measures of inflation 2008

Table 27: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012

Table 28: Forecast chronology 2008-2012

Table 29: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012

Table 30: Sales by location 1997-2012

Table 31: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012

Table 32: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012

Table 33: Store numbers 1997-2012

Table 34: Space by location 1997-2012

Table 35: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012

Table 36: Average store size by location 1997-2012

Table 37: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012

Table 38: Electricals market definition 2008



List of Figures

Figure 1: Electricals specialists sources of growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 2: Electricals market key issues 2007-2012

Figure 3: Drivers and brakes on HD player growth 2007-2012

Figure 4: Specialists vs non-specialists performance 2007-2012

Figure 5: Forecast annual average inflation/deflation by electricals sub sector 2007-2012

Figure 6: Electricals specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer spending 1997-2012

Figure 7: Total electricals specialists store numbers (000) 1997-2012

Figure 8: Space growth for electricals specialists 1997-2012

Figure 9: Electricals specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2012

Figure 10: Electricals specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 11: Electricals channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012

Figure 12: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2012 on 2007

Figure 13: Key electricals retailers change in market share 2003-2008e

Figure 14: Electricals expenditure as a % of total spending 1997-2012

Figure 15: Electricals growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 16: Brown goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 17: Brown goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 18: Audio-visual equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 19: Audio-visual equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 20: Games consoles and software expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 21: Games consoles and software expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 22: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 23: Photographic & optical equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 24: White goods expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 25: White goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 26: Major household appliances expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 27: Major household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 28: Minor appliances expenditure as a % of electricals 1997-2012

Figure 29: Minor household appliances expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 30: Grey goods expenditure as a % of electricals 1997-2012

Figure 31: Grey goods expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 32: Information processing equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 33: Information processing equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 34: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure as a % of electricals spending 1997-2012

Figure 35: Telephone & fax equipment expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012

Figure 36: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 37: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 38: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 39: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 40: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 41: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 42: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 43: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 44: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008

Figure 45: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 46: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 47: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 48: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 49: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 50: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England & Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 51: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 52: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 53: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 54: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012

Figure 55: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012

Figure 56: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012

Figure 57: % share of store numbers by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012

Figure 58: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012

Figure 59: Online retail spending 1997-2012

Figure 60: Verdict forecasting methodology 2008

Abstract

Introduction

Verdict Research: Rapid growth between 2002 and 2008 leave the electricals sector with tough comparatives over the next five years. In particular maturing specialists will struggle to gain share as non-specialists build their credentials in the sector, targetting the faster growing segments of the market.

Scope

  • Value data, growth rates and forecasts broken down by sub sector
  • Coverage of key market issues and growth drivers
  • Electricals market expenditure, inflation and volume growth (1997-2007), plus full five-year forecasts for each of the key sub sectors categories

Report Highlights

  • The electricals market will see a significant slowdown in growth over the next five years with electricals specialists in particular set to struggle
  • A whole raft of competitors will put further pressure on specialists. These non-specialists will target the fastest growing electricals sub sectors
  • Desite a slowdown, there is still much to be positive about with many product trends pointing towards robust performances

Reasons to Purchase

  • Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth and action points to guide strategies
  • Optimise buying, identify emerging trends and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them
  • Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source



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