2Q08 Global Mobile Forecast, 2008 - 2010

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Apr. 25, 2008

Table of Contents

Countries and Operators Covered in this Global Mobile Forecast

Algeria: Djezzy, Mobilis, Nedjma (Wataniya)

Argentina: CTI (AMX), Movistar Argentina (TEF), Nextel, Telecom Argentina (TI)

Australia: Hutchison, Optus, Telstra, Vodafone

Austria: Connect Austria, Drei, Mobilkom (Telekom Austria), T-Mobile

Bangladesh: Bangalink/Sheba (Orascom Tel), BTTB, GrameenPhone (Telenor), PBTL (SingTel), TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia), Warid

Belgium: Base, Mobistar (Orange), Proximus

Brazil: Claro Brazil (AMX), Oi (Tele Norte Leste), Others (Brazil), TIM Brazil (TI), Vivo (PT/Telefonical)

Canada: Bell Mobility, MTS, Other Bell Affiliates, Rogers Wireless (incl. Microcell), Telus Mobility

Chile: Bellsouth (CHL), Claro Chile (AMX), Entel Chile, Movistar Chile (TEF), Others (Chile)

China: China Mobile, China Unicom, Unlisted and other adjustments

Colombia: Comcel (AMX, Movistar Colombia (TEF), Tigo Colombia (MICC)

Czech: Telefonica O2 CZ, T-Mobile, Vodafone

Denmark: 3 (Hutchison), Orange, Sonofon (Telenor), TDC Mobil (Denmark), Telia

Egypt: ECMS (MobiNil), Nile Telecom (Etisalat), Vodafone

Finland: DNA, Elisa, Sonera, Telia

France: Bouygues, Orange, SFR (Vodafone)

Germany: D2 (Vodafone), E-Plus, T-Mobile, O2

Greece: Cosmote, Q-Telecom, TIM Hellas, Vodafone Panafon

Hong Kong: CSL/New World, Hutchison, New World, People, SmarTone, Sunday

Hungary: Pannon (Telenor), T-Mobile, Vodafone

India: Bharti-Airtel, BSNL, Hutchison, Others (India), Rcom

Indonesia: Excelcomindo, Satelindo + IM3, StarOne, Telkom Flexi, Telkomsel

Iraq: AsiaCell (Wataniya), Atheer Tel (MTC), Iraqna (Orascom Tel)

Ireland: Meteor, O2, Vodafone

Israel: Cellcom, MIRS, Partner, Pelephone

Italy: 3 (Hutchison), Blu, OPI Vodafone, TIM, Wind

Japan: KDDI (au), KDDI (Tu-ka), NTT DoCoMo, NTT DoCoMo (PHS), Softbank Mobile, WILLCOM (PHS)

Malaysia: Celcom, DiGi.Com, Maxis

Mexico: Iusacell, Movistar Mexico (TEF), Nextel Intl, Telcel (AMX), Unefon

Morocco: Maroc Telecom, Medi Tel, Wana

Netherlands: Ben (T-Mobile), Dutchtone (Orange), KPN Mobile, Telfort, Vodafone

New Zealand: TCNZ, Vodafone

Nigeria: Globacom, MTC, MTN, Nitel

Norway: Netcom (TeliaSonera), Telenor Mobil

Pakistan: Instaphone, Mobilink, Paktel, Telenor, Ufone, Warid Telecom

Peru: BellSouth, Claro Perú (AMX), Movistar Perú (TEF), Nextel

Philippines: Digitel (rough estimates only), Globe, PLDT

Poland: Polkomtel, PTC (T-Mobile), PTK Centertel (TP SA)

Portugal: Optimus, Telecel Vodafone, TMN

Russia: MegaFon, MTS, Others (Russia), VimpelCom

Singapore: Mobile One, SingTel, StarHub

South Africa: Cell C, MTN (M-Cell), Virgin Mobile, Vodacom

South Korea: KTF, LG Telecom, SK Telecom

Spain: Orange, Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, Xfera

Sweden: 3 (Hutchison), Tele 2, Telenor, Telia

Switzerland: Orange, Sunrise/TDC Switzerland, Swisscom

Taiwan: APBW, Chunghwa Telecom, Far Eastone, FiTel, Taiwan Cellular Corp, VIBO

Thailand: Advanced Info Service, Hutchison, Others (Thailand), TA Orange, Total Access Communication

Turkey: Avea (Turk Telekom), Turkcell, Vodafone

Ukraine: Astelit, Golden, Kyivstar, UMC, URS (VimpelCom)

United Kingdom: 3 (Hutchison), O2, Orange, T-Mobile (One2One), Vodafone

United States: AT&T Wireless, Cingular Wireless, Nextel, Sprint, T-Mobile USA, Verizon Wireless

Venezuela: Digitel Movilnet (CANTV), Movistar Venezuela (TEF), Others (Infonet and Digicel)

Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY04-CY10

Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR

Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR

Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Charts 69:136 Quarterly Results for: Dec 04 - Dec 07

Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR

Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR

Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR

Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Abstract

• THE MOST PENETRATED MARKET IN THE WORLD (ITALY): The most highly penetrated market in our coverage list in 2010 will be Greece with a wireless penetration level of 173.2%.
• THE LARGEST WIRELESS MARKET IN THE WORLD (CHINA): The largest wireless telecom market in the world (by subscribers) in 2010 will continue to be China. Given the continued success of Chinese mobile operators in executing their business models, we are now forecasting that by 2010, China will have 824 million subscribers (up significantly from our previous forecast of 738 million subscribers by 2010).
• THE FASTEST GROWING WIRELESS MARKET IN THE WORLD (INDIA): We continue to believe that fastest growing wireless market in the world from 2008 - 2010 by subscribers will be India. We have revised up our forecast for subscriber growth in the India market to 32% average annual growth. The number of subscribers will increase from our projected 329.1 million in 2008 to 527.4 million in 2010. India will replace the United States as the second largest wireless market in the world after China sometime in 2008.
• THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS PAY THE MOST FOR WIRELESS SERVICES (NORWAY): In 2010, the market where consumers pay the most for their mobile services (as measured by Average Revenue per User, ARPU) will be Norway with US$ 61.85 per user (previously we were forecasting ARPU in Norway at US$ 63.51). Pure duopoly of Telenor Mobil and Netcom (TeliaSonera) will continue to allow for the high levels of ARPU in Norway.
• THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS PAY THE LEAST FOR WIRELESS SERVICES (PAKISTAN): We continue to expect Pakistan to have the lowest ARPU levels in our coverage list. Operator-wide ARPU levels in Pakistan are expected to reach US$ 2.96 in 2008 and fall to US$ 2.90 in 2010.
• THE MARKET WHERE CONSUMERS CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN WIRELESS SERVICE CHARGES (RUSSIA): Within our coverage list, we continue to expect Russia to see the highest level of ARPU increase. Between 2008 and 2010, consumers in Russia can be expected to pay 43% more for their wireless services, mostly due ongoing consolidation in Russia’s wireless sector.

• THE FASTEST GROWING OPERATOR IN THE WORLD (NILE TELECOM IN EGYPT): Our model is now forecasting that Nile Telecom in Egypt will see the highest level of subscriber growth among the 213 operators in our coverage list. Subscriber levels will rise by 127.3% between 2008 and 2010 for Nile Telecom to reach about 9.1 million subscribers in 2010.
• THE OPERATOR THAT WILL ADD THE MOST SUBSCRIBERS (CHINA MOBILE): The world’s largest operator will also add the most number of subscribers. We are forecasting that China Mobile will add 138 million wireless subscribers in the next three years. On average, this means that China Mobile will add 3.8 million subscribers each month. Bharti-Airtel of India will add the second largest number of subscribers, about 48.7 million over the next three years.
• THE OPERATOR WHICH WILL CHARGE ITS CUSTOMERS THE MOST IN THE WORLD (NEXTEL INTERNATIONAL IN MEXICO): In 2010, the operator which will bill its customers at the highest level in our coverage list will be Nextel International in Mexico with an ARPU of US$ 65.38 per month in 2010.
• THE OPERATOR WHICH WILL CHARGE ITS CUSTOMERS THE LEAST IN THE WORLD (WARID IN PAKISTAN): In 2010, the operator which will bill its customers at the lowest rate in our coverage list will be Warid Telecom in Pakistan with an ARPU of only US$ 1.98 per month in 2010.
• THE MOST PROFITABLE OPERATOR IN THE WORLD IN 2010 (TELKOMSEL IN INDONESIA): Within our coverage list, we are expecting Telkomsel in Indonesia to be the most profitable operator in the world. On average, we are expecting EBITDA margins at Telkomsel to be 68% in 2010.

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