|
|
United Arab Emirates Commercial Banking Report Q2 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Apr. 24, 2008 - 35 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn March 2008, we updated all data for the 59 countries surveyed with official figures, sourced fromcentral banks and regulators. In most cases, we were able to find data that pertained to the end of 2007: inalmost all other cases, the data pertains to September 30 2007. As a result, the insights that we derive onparticular countries are based on consistently sourced information that is far more current than it had beenpreviously.Although we gather data for countries such as the US, Japan, Australia and the eurozone, the vastmajority of the 59 countries whose banking industries we survey are, or are generally seen as being,emerging markets. For all the widely publicised problems of large banks in developed countries, in thewake of the subprime banking crisis in the US, 2007 was an extremely good year for the banking sectorsof the emerging markets. In local currency terms, the median growth in assets was 21% (in Brazil). Themedian rates of growth in loans to non-bank customers and in deposits were 22% (in India) and 18% (inMorocco). In some countries - and not just those enjoying oil booms - the figures were spectacular. InUkraine, for instance, assets and deposits rose by 76% and 62% respectively. Loans grew by more thanone-third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Peru, Bahrain, Iranand Nigeria. Deposits also rose by more than one-third in most of these countries. In absolute terms, the UAE’s banking sector enjoyed excellent growth through the year to September 302007. In local currency terms, total assets, total loans and total deposits increased by 40%, 28% and 38%respectively. The loan/deposit and loan/asset ratios fell, while the loan/GDP ratio rose. These achievements remain impressive, even when considered relative to the other countries surveyed byBMI. Of the 59 countries surveyed, the UAE ranks seventh in terms of local currency asset growth, 23rdin terms of local currency loan growth and eighth in terms of local currency deposit growth. The UAE’srankings in terms of its loan/deposit, loan/asset and loan/GDP ratios are 46th, 47th and 26th respectively.In a country with per capita GDP of US$43,859, deposits per capita are an impressive US$40,564.In Q108, we envisaged that total assets, total loans and total deposits would all rise by 25% annuallythrough the 2007-2012 forecast period. Now, and using an improved forecasting method, we are lookingfor growth rates of 22%, 17% and 21% respectively. Since Q108, we have calculated, on a consistent basis, a Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating(CBBER) for each of the 59 countries surveyed. The CBBER includes an assessment of the limits ofpotential returns: it does this by taking into account the size, growth potential and bancassurancepotential of the banking sector, as well as aspects of the economy in 2007. The CBBER also depends onan assessment of the risks to the realisation of potential returns: this reflects BMI’s assessments ofoverall country risk, together with the regulatory and competitive environment. The UAE’s CBBER is 64.6. In the context of the Middle East and Africa region, this means that it is arather attractive country. The UAE’s score compares favourably to the regional leader, South Africa’sscore of 67.8. The major problems are low bankassurance potential, an underdeveloped financialinfrastructure, and a complex legal framework. The ratings score for the market structure - the mostimportant component of the assessment of the limits to potential returns - is healthy by regionalstandards, at 60.6. By regional standards, the ratings score for the economy - at 56.6 - is reasonable, butnot exceptional. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
|
|||
|
About MarketResearch.com
|
||||