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Russia Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 24, 2008 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Russia Political Overview SWOT
Russia Security SWOT
Russia Defence Industry SWOT
Russia Business Environment SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
Europe: Security Ratings
Table: Europe: State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Russia Terrorism Risk
Russia Physical Safety Risk
Russia Conflict Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Russia Insurgent Groups
Chechnya
External Security Situation
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripts) 2005
Current Strength
Modernising The Military
Defence Budget
Historical Strength
International Deployments
Table: Russia Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Restructuring The Russian Defence Industry
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players - Russia Defence Sector (2005)
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Russia Defence Sector - Army Enlargements
Table: Russia Defence Sector - Government Expenditure
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Sukhoi Aviation Corporation
Uralvagonzavod
Irkut
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Russia’s defence exports rose considerably in 2007 due to a number of high-profile orders secured withVenezuela, Iran, India, Algeria and most recently Indonesia. In Q108 the Russian defence industrycontinued to grow rapidly. In the last year Russia’s defence industrial base grew by 23.1%. In recentyears Russia’s defence industry growth has been exceptionally strong but it has received assistance fromthe government, first in the form of a reconsolidation of the defence industry and most recently viaUS$189bn allocated for the 2007-2010 re-armaments plan. The boom has also been driven by anincreased demand from overseas clients, such as Venezuela, Algeria and Indonesia.

Defence Industry Developments

in 2007 included the Russian government confirming plans to establishthree shipyard holding companies. The firms have not been selected yet but some have been mentioned,namely Severnaya Verf and Baltiisky Zavod, which are majority-owned by Mezhprombank throughUnited Industrial Corporation. The Kalingrad-based Yantar shipyard was also named as a possiblecandidate.

In recent months Russia’s regional diplomatic and defence ties have deteriorated significantly. In Q108the Russian government’s decision to boost its missile capability caused concern for the EU and the US.Russia’s motives for boosting its missile cache were questioned in light of the government suspending itsinvolvement in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in Q108. Russia withdrew itsmembership of the CFE treaty as it felt the agreement did not have the same relevance today as it did in1999. Russia did however state that the government may consider reviving CFE negotiations if all NATOmember states ratified the 19 November 1999 treaty, which benefits Russia from a defence anddiplomatic standpoint. It is unlikely that the US will acquiesce to such a demand. As such, the issue isunlikely to be resolved in the immediate term.


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