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Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 24, 2008 - 52 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Central Asia Political SWOT
Central Asia Security SWOT
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
Central Asia Political
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Security Overview
Regional Security Profile
Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups
Central Asia Conflict Risk Ratings
Central Asia Terrorism Risk Ratings
Central Physical Safety Risk Ratings
Islamist Extremism and Transnational Threats
Regional Organisations
Defence Industry
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted)
Armed Forces, Kazakhstan
Armed Forces, Uzbekistan
Armed Forces, Tajikistan
Armed Forces, Turkmenistan
Armed Forces, Kyrgyzstan
International Deployments
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast
Kazakhstan
Table: Kazakhstan Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table - Central Asia - Military Expenditure (US$bn)
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan
Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity
Uzbekistan
Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity
Tajikistan
Table: Tajikistan - Economic Activity
Turkmenistan
Table: Turkmenistan - Economic Activity
Kyrgyzstan
Table: Kyrgyzstan - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

The outlook for Central Asia for Q208 is relatively stable, despite civil unrest and the presence of terroristand extremist groups. Terrorism is a security concern for Central Asia due to the wide range of extremistgroups active across the region, such as Jamaat of Central Asian Mujahedins (JCAM), the IslamicMovement of Uzbekistan, the Uighur-led Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan, Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami, theMuslim Brotherhood, the Kongra-Gel Kurdish organisation, right-wing Turkic group the Boz Qurd andAl-Qaeda. However, the risks posed by insurgent groups to regional security have been offset by effortsto strengthen inter-state diplomatic and economic ties. In Q108 Afghanistan and Tajikistan developedstronger diplomatic ties through the new US$37mn bridge over the River Panj. The bridge was funded bythe US in the hopes that Afghanistan and Tajikistan would revive old trade ties and eventually boostregional economic development.

The geo-strategic significance of the Central Asia region has led to an increase in defence expenditure inthe region. Both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan increased their defence budgets, largely to modernise theirforces and support existing military personnel. In 2007, most Central Asian states received increases intheir Foreign Military Financing (FMF) assistance from the US. However, the overall funding for theregion has decreased from US$704mn in 2005 to US$305mn in 2008. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan andTurkmenistan all experienced decreases in funding between 2005 and 2008. Only Tajikistan received anincrease in FMF, from US$496,000 in 2005 to US$675,000 in 2008. The bulk of the funding goestowards Pakistan, which received US$148mn in 2005. That figure increased to US$300mn in 2007 andwill be the same for 2008.

Central Asia’s arms and defence systems do not have a significant presence in international arms trade,with most states relying on Russia for arms and defence systems. However, a well-established illegalarms trade route runs through the Central Asia region, with the supply and demand for small arms andlight weapons (SALW) emanating from ongoing conflicts in Nepal, Kashmir, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.It is estimated that approximately 75mn firearms have found their way to conflicts in South Asia via theCentral Asia region.


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