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China Food and Drink Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 18, 2008 - 74 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Ratings - Q208
China’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Singapore’s Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
China Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
China Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: China - Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: China MGR Retail Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn)
Table: Annual Average Store Sales by Format - 2007
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: China Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: China Food Sub-sectors - Historical & Forecast Sales Data
Table: China Sectoral Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: China Beverage Industry Sub-Sectors - Historical & Forecast Sales Data
Industry Developments
Agriculture
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: China Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (‘000 tonnes, unless stated) - Historical Data
Table: China Organic Agricultural Data
Table: China Dairy Industry Data - 2006
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in China's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2006
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in China Food & Drink Sector - 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region 57
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region 58
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Carrefour
Lianhua Supermarket Holdings
Food
Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding
China Foods Ltd (formerly China National Cereals Oils And Foodstuffs)
Drink
Tsingtao
Wahaha
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

If the press coverage that China’s food safety standards are receiving globally is having an effect on the
confidence of its trading partners, the scares seem to be having a fairly minimal impact on domestic food
consumption growth. In BMI’s newly-published Q208 China Food & Drink Report we examine the
growth rates being experienced by China’s meat industry - an industry that is typically one of the first to
suffer in the face of food safety scares and consumer confidence issues in developed markets. The report
also focuses on the different strategies domestic and international investors are employing to exploit the
meat industry’s potential, as well as the wider ways in which food safety scandals are affecting China’s
reputation.


The last three months have seen two investments of note in China’s meat industry. In January, local
processor Zhongpin revealed that it was to invest US$13.2mn in boosting its prepared meats production
capacity. Although a fairly low level investment in an industry worth an estimated US$33bn annually, the
involvement of local producers in added-value meat production is a fairly new trend and is indicative of
the increased attention that this segment is receiving from consumers. Economic growth, increasingly
busy lifestyles and a general desire to trade up in line with improving disposable incomes have all
contributed to growth in the processed meat sub-sector and local producers are loath to let multinational
investors reap the rewards for themselves.


Conversely in early February, US food giant Tyson Foods, the world’s largest meat producer, revealed
that it was to support its Chinese processed poultry enterprise with the establishment of a fresh poultry
joint venture in the country. Tyson is to sell branded fresh poultry, looking to exploit its renowned brand
name in order to build consumer trust at a time when skepticism about food origin is growing.
Interestingly, Tyson will be looking to leverage many of the same trends as Zhongpin - higher incomes,
the aspirational nature of China’s expanding middle classes, etc. - yet it will be operating in a much
removed product area. Existing consumer familiarity with poultry means that category sales in China are
growing by around only 2% annually, compared to annual growth of around 6% in the broader meat
category.


This investment activity in China, the strategy employed by Tyson in particular, highlights the challenge
of operating in this high-growth, immensely opportune, but still high-risk market. China falls in a midtable
sixth place in BMI’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings, which assess a market’s
investment potential relative to its regional peers. A vast population, abundant natural resources, sound
short-term economic structure and growing urban spending are all trends that investors will look to
exploit, and yet these must be balanced again a challenging food and drink regulatory environment, still
weak distribution infrastructure and still acute rural poverty.


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