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Indonesia Food and Drink Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 18, 2008 - 68 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Ratings - Q208
Indonesia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Indonesia’s Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Indonesia Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales By Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Sales By Format, 2007
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies In The Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Value/Volume Sales, selected food sub-sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sectoral Trade Indicators - Historical Data
Drink
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Agriculture
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Food
Agriculture
Table: Indonesia Organic Agricultural Data
Table: Indonesia Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (‘000 tonnes, unless stated) - Historical Data
Table: Indonesia Dairy Industry Production, Consumption & Trade Data (‘000 tonnes)
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Players in Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2006
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players in Indonesia's Food & Drink Sector - 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Matahari Putra Prima
Carrefour
Food
Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
Drink
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA)
Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua)
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

Global food price inflation continues to make itself felt in both developed and emerging markets, with
Indonesia’s agricultural and fledgling food processing industries no exception. In BMI’s newly published
Q208 Indonesia Food & Drink Report, we examine the impact spiralling food prices are having on
consumer spending in the country and their knock-on effect on food and beverage industry investment.
Back at the start of the year, leading local food processor Indofood Sukses Makmur revealed that it
expected rising commodity costs to have a considerable knock-on effect on profitability throughout 2008.
In Q208, this view was supported by Indonesia’s vast tempeh production industry, with producers of
these soybean cakes - a staple in Indonesian diets - claiming that rising soybean import costs were
threatening to put them out of business.


The scrapping of soybean import tariffs and a short-term government subsidy scheme helped to remove
the threat to tempeh producer livelihoods, while Indofood’s announcement of interim financials revealed
steady profit growth which suggested that it too was riding out the current storm. Confirmation from
Unilever Indonesia - the local subsidiary of the Dutch consumer goods giant - that it would match its
US$60mn 2007 investment in the country in 2008 after price increases of 4% had only a minor impact on
customer loyalty further alleviated the short-term outlook for producers.


However, while the local food and beverage industry might be finding the capital to weather the current
storm, with the government assisting the agricultural sector to do the same, unabated consumer demand
will continue to stimulate local food price inflation. The current situation highlights the conflicting nature
of the Indonesian food and beverage market. On the one hand, a developed mass grocery retail sector
simplifies distribution for producers, while an immense population ensures an enormous audience for
food and beverage products.


On the other, however, food spending in Indonesia is low - with average per capita levels dragged down
by the country’s poorer rural groups. Food and beverage import dependency - a situation expected to
alleviate as government agricultural initiatives finally come to the fore - causes further vulnerability to
food price inflation, vulnerability that will ensure that this long-term promising, but hugely pricesensitive,
market remains a risky proposition for investors for the time being.


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