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Published by: Visant Strategies, Inc.
Published: Apr. 1, 2008 - 135 Pages
Table of Contents
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1.1 And the Winner Is?
- 1.2 Few Significant Contracts Yet
- 1.3 Critical Inflection Points
- 1.3.1 Sprint and Mobile WiMAX
- 1.3.2 UMB and 802.20
- 1.3.3 LTE Timeline
- 1.3.4 Virgin Carriers
- 1.3.5 China and India
- 1.4 More or Less Fragmentation
- 1.5 WiMAX Honeymoon Over
- 1.6 Elephants Move Slowly
- 1.7 Asia
- 1.8 Third Generation Has Been Here Yet Still Many GSM Subscribers
- 1.9 Femtocells
- 1.10 Clean Break From Circuit Switching
- 1.11 Key Differentiators between the Technologies
- 1.11.1 WiMAX
- 1.11.2 LTE
- 1.11.3 UMB
- 1.11.4 802.20
- 1.12 4G Figures and Forecasts
- 1.12.1 4G Subscribers
- 1.12.2 4G Subscriber Revenues
- 1.12.3 4G Devices Shipments and Revenues
- 1.12.4 4G Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 1.12.5 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 1.12.6 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- SECTION TWO
- Common Trends, Definitions, Technologies
- 2.1 Network Upgrade Drivers (Why LTE, 802.16m or UMB)
- 2.2 Design Goals
- 2.3 Enabling Technologies
- 2.4 Common Challenges
- 2.4.1 Performance Gains over Evolved 3G
- 2.4.2 PAPR, Uplink Budget and Performance
- 2.4.3 Frequency Reuse
- 2.4.4 Frequency Reuse Methods/Technologies
- 2.4.5 Spectrum Scarcity and Cost
- 2.4.6 Site Acquisition
- 2.4.7 Intellectual Property Rights
- 2.5 Standards Activity
- 2.4.1 IMT Advanced
- 2.4.2 NGMN Group
- 2.6 4G New Spectrum Allocation
- 2.7 Open Network Initiatives
- SECTION THREE
- Long Term Evolution (LTE)
- 3.1 Definitions LTE and SAE
- 3.2 Status and Time to Market
- 3.3 Backers
- 3.4 Contract Announcements
- 3.5 Technical Overview
- 3.5.1 Air Interface
- 3.5.1.1 Downlink
- 3.5.1.2 Uplink
- 3.5.2 Channel sizes
- 3.5.3 Modulation
- 3.5.4 Throughout
- 3.5.5 MIMO, Intelligent Antenna Support
- 3.5.6 Spectrum
- 3.5.7 Latency
- 3.5.8 Duplexing
- 3.5.9 Core Network
- 3.5.10 Other Design Goals
- 3.6 Technical Issues Trends
- 3.6.1 Performance compared to Evolved HSPA (HSPA+)
- 3.6.2 Unproven Technology
- 3.7 LTE Market Factors
- 3.7.1 Timing
- 3.7.2 Certification of User Devices
- 3.7.3 Whose Standard?
- 3.7.4 IPR
- 3.7.5 Competition
- 3.7.6 Response to Carriers
- 3.7.7 Cost
- 3.7.8 Installed Base
- 3.7.9 Risk
- 3.7.10 Spectrum
- 3.8 LTE Figures and Forecasts
- 3.8.1 LTE Subscribers and Revenues
- 3.8.2 LTE Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
- 3.8.3 LTE Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 3.8.4 LTE Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 3.8.5 LTE Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- SECTION FOUR
- Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB)
- 4.1 UMB Intro
- 4.2 Standards and Committees
- 4.3 Status
- 4.4 Time to Market
- 4.5 Backers
- 4.6 Contract Announcements
- 4.7 Available Opportunity and 3GPP2 Installed Base
- 4.8 Technical Overview
- 4.8.1 Air Interface
- 4.8.2 Handoffs
- 4.8.3 Legacy Support
- 4.8.4 Latency
- 4.8.5 Channel sizes and Spectrum.
- 4.8.6 Modulation
- 4.8.7 Throughout
- 4.8.8 MIMO, Multiple Antenna Support
- 4.8.9 VoIP Users Supported
- 4.8.10 Duplexing
- 4.9 Technical Issues, Trends and Considerations
- 4.9.1 Unproven
- 4.9.2 OFDM Uplink Budget
- 4.9.3 OFDM and N=1 Performance
- 4.9.4 4x4 MIMO
- 4.10 UMB Market Factors
- 4.10.1 Support
- 4.10.2 Loss of Major Customers
- 4.10.3 Time to Market
- 4.10.4 Qualcomm Factor
- 4.10.5 IEEE 802.20
- 4.10.6 What Happened to FLASH-OFDM
- 4.10.7 Installed Base
- 4.10.8 Intellectual Property Licensing Fees
- 4.10.9 Public Perception
- 4.11 UMB Figures and Forecasts
- 4.11.1 CDMA Subscribers
- 4.11.2 CDMA Device Shipments
- 4.11.2 UMB Subscribers and Revenues
- 4.11.3 UMB Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
- 4.11.4 UMB Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 4.11.5 UMB Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 4.11.6 UMB Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- SECTION FIVE
- IEEE 802.20
- 5.1 802.20 Definitions
- 5.2 802.20 Lives
- 5.3 Time to Market
- 5.4 Contributors and Voters
- 5.5 Contract Announcements
- 5.6 Technical Overview
- 5.6.1 Work in Progress
- 5.6.2 Expected Attributes
- 5.7 802.20 Market Factors
- 5.7.1 Support
- 5.7.2 Too Late?
- 5.7.3 Credibility
- 5.7.4 The Bottom Line
- 5.8 802.20 Figures and Forecasts
- 5.8.1 802.20 Subscribers and Revenues
- 58.2 802.20 Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
- 5.8.3 802.20 Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 5.8.4 802.20 Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 5.8.5 802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- SECTION SIX
- Evolved High Speed Packet Access (HSPA+)
- 6.1 HSPA and HSPA+ Defined
- 6.2 Standards and Committees
- 6.3 Status
- 6.4 Time to Market
- 6.5 Backers
- 6.6 Contract Announcements
- 6.7 HSPA Main Technologies (Releases 5 and 6)
- 6.7.1 HS-DSCH (High-Speed Shared Downlink Channel)
- 6.7.2 E-DCH (Enhanced Dedicated Channel)
- 6.7.3 Reduced Transmission Time Interval (TTI)
- 6.7.4 Scheduling and Link Adaptation
- 6.7.5 Higher Order Modulation
- 6.7.6 Hybrid ARQ and Soft Combining
- 6.8 HSPA+ Technical Attributes (Releases 7 and 8)
- 6.8.1 Modulation
- 6.8.2 Air Interface
- 6.8.3 Throughput
- 6.8.3.1 Downlink
- 6.8.3.2 Uplink
- 6.8.4 Voice Capacity
- 6.8.5 Handoffs
- 6.8.6 Latency
- 6.8.7 Intelligent Antenna Support
- 6.9 HSPA Market Factors
- 6.9.1 Upgrade Complexity
- 6.9.2 Existing Networks
- 6.9.3 Backwards Compatibility
- 6.9.4 Proven Air Interface
- 6.9.5 HSPA+ With MIMO
- 6.9.6 Economies of Scale
- 6.9.7 Low Risk Option
- 6.9.8 Recoup Investment
- 6.9.9 Uplink Budget
- 6.9.10 Evaluation
- 6.10 HSPA+ Figures and Forecasts
- 6.10.1 WCDMA Subscribers
- 6.10.2 WCDMA Device Shipments
- 6.10.3 HSPA+ Subscribers and Revenues
- 6.10.4 HSPA+ Device ASP, Shipments and Revenues
- 6.10.5 HSPA+ Base Station Shipments, Deployments and Revenues
- 6.10.6 HSPA+ Femtocell Subscribers and Revenues
- 6.10.7 HSPA+ Femtocell Device Shipments and Revenues
- SECTION SEVEN
- WiMAX 802.16
- 7.1 802.16 and WiMAX, Background
- 7.2 Standards and Task Groups of Note
- 7.2.1 802.16e (802.16e-2005)
- 7.2.2 802.16d (802.16-2004)
- 7.2.3 802.16h
- 7.2.4 Relay Task Group (802.16j)
- 7.2.5 Task Group M (802.16m)
- 7.3 The WiMAX Forum
- 7.3.1 Members
- 7.3.2 WiMAX Forum Role
- 7.3.3 Certification
- 7.3.4 Current Certified WiMAX Forum Product and Timelines
- 7.4 802.16 2004, 802.16e-2005 and WiMAX feature set
- 7.4.1 Channel Sizes
- 7.4.2 Frequency Allocations
- 7.4.3 Duplexing.
- 7.4.4 Modulation
- 7.4.5 FFT Size
- 7.4.6 Mobile WiMAX Wave 1 and 2 Profiles, Key Attributes
- 7.5 Technical Considerations
- 7.5.1 Data Rates and Spectral Efficiency
- 7.5.2 WiMAX Performance
- 7.5.2.1 Summary of Limitations
- 7.5.2.2 Frequency Reuse, Handoffs, and Mobility
- 7.5.2.3 Interference Management
- 7.5.2.4 Uplink (PAPR and TDD)
- 7.5.2.5 MIMO a Must?
- 7.5.3 Intelligent Antennas use for WiMAX
- 7.5.3.1 MIMO (Matrix A and B)
- 7.5.3.2 AAS
- 7.6 Market Considerations
- 7.6.1 WiMAX Base Station and CPE Pricing
- 7.6.2 Certification Expectations
- 7.6.3 Interoperability
- 7.6.4 Proprietary and Competing Solutions
- 7.6.5 WiMAX Everywhere
- 7.6.6 Laptop WiMAX
- 7.6.7 Skipping to Wave 2 Devices
- 7.6.8 Dual Mode Cellular/WiMAX Devices
- 7.6.9 WiMAX vs. CDMA/WCDMA
- 7.6.10 WiBro
- 7.6.11 WiMAX as a Hot Spot Solution
- 7.7 WiMAX Figures and Forecasts
- 7.7.1 WiMAX Fixed and Mobile Subscribers and Revenues
- 7.7.2 WiMAX Phone, CPE and Modem ASPs, Shipments and Revenues
- 7.7.3 WiMAX Base Station ASP, Deployments, Shipments and Revenues
- 7.7.4 WiMAX Femtocell Subscribers and Service Revenues
- 7.7.5 WiMAX Femtocell Shipments and Revenues
- TABLES
- Table 1-1
- 4G Subscribers
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-2
- 4G Subscribers by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-3
- 4G Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-4
- 4G Subscriber Revenues
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-5
- 4G Device Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-6
- 4G Device Shipments
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-7
- 4G Device Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-8
- 4G Device Revenues
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-9
- 4G Base Stations
- Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-10
- 4G Base Station Deployments
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-11
- 4G Base Station Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-12
- 4G Base Station Revenues
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-13
- 4G Femtocell
- Subscribers
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-14
- 4G Femtocell Subscribers
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-15
- 4G Femtocell
- Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 1-16
- 4G Femtocell
- Subscriber Revenues
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-17
- 4G Femtocell
- Device Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-18
- 4G Femtocell Device Shipments
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 1-19
- 4G Femtocell
- Device Shipment Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 1-20
- 4G Femtocell
- Device Shipment Revenues
- by Technology
- World Market 2014
- Table 3-1
- LTE Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-2
- LTE Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-3
- LTE Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-4
- LTE Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-5
- LTE Base Station Deployments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-6
- LTE Base Station Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-7
- LTE Femtocell Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-8
- LTE Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-9
- LTE Femtocell Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 3-10
- LTE Femtocell Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-1
- CDMA Subscribers (IS-95, CDMA2000, and EV-DO all Revisions)
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 4-2
- CDMA Device Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 4-3
- EV-DO Subscribers (All Revisions)
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 4-4
- EV-DO Device Shipments (All Revisions)
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 4-5
- UMB Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-6
- UMB Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-7
- UMB Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-8
- UMB Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-9
- UMB Base Station Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-10
- UMB Base Station Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-11
- UMB Femtocell Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-12
- UMB Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-13
- UMB Femtocell Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 4-14
- UMB Femtocell Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-1
- 802.20 Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-2
- 802.20 Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-3
- 802.20 Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-4
- 802.20 Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-5
- 802.20 Base Station Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-6
- 802.20 Base Station Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-7
- 802.20 Femtocell Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-8
- 802.20 Femtocell Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-9
- 802.20 Femtocell Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 5-10
- 802.20 Femtocell Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-1
- WCDMA Subscribers
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 6-2
- WCDMA Device Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 6-3
- HSPA+ Subscribers
- World Market 2009-2014
- Table 6-4
- HSPA+ Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-5
- HSPA+ Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-6
- HSPA+ Device Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-7
- HSPA+ Base Station Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-8
- HSPA+ Base Station Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-9
- HSPA+ MIMO Enabled Base Station
- Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-10
- HSPA+ Femtocell
- Subscribers
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-11
- HSPA+ Femtocell
- Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-12
- HSPA+ Femtocell
- Device Shipments
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 6-13
- HSPA+ Femtocell Device
- Revenues
- World Market 2008-2014
- Table 7-1
- WiMAX Subscribers
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-2
- WiMAX
- Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-3
- WiMAX
- Device Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-4
- WiMAX
- Device Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-5
- WiMAX Wave 2 Device
- Shipments and Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-6
- WiMAX
- Base Station
- Shipments and Deployments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-7
- WiMAX
- Base Station
- Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-8
- WiMAX
- Femtocell
- Subscribers
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-9
- WiMAX
- Femtocell
- Subscriber Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-10
- WiMAX
- Femtocell
- Shipments
- World Market 2007-2014
- Table 7-11
- WiMAX
- Femtocell
- Shipment Revenues
- World Market 2007-2014
Abstract“4G Wireless - From 2008 to 2014: LTE, UMB, HSPA+, WiMAX and 802.20” is an assessment of the market opportunity for these evolving wireless platforms through 2014. The study juxtaposes the relative strengths and weaknesses of these technologies to create quantitative and qualitative assessments of the role each technology will play in the future. The study examines drivers for network upgrades and the technologies that will be used to improve network performance including MIMO, error correction, OFDMA, scheduling and modulation, among others.
Status, major attributes and expected deployment dates are provided for each 4G technology. Shipments and revenues for LTE, UMB, 802.20, WiMAX and HSPA+ handset/user devices, femtocells and base stations are given. Also provided are WCDMA, HSPA, CDMA and CDMA EV-DO users and devices. Global base station deployments and wireless world subscribers are given through 2014 as are subscribers and service revenues for each 4G technology.
Questions Addressed
- When will 3.5G and 4G be deployed?
- Will HSPA+ delay LTE deployments?
- Can 802.16e make a mark in the mobile space?
- Why will carriers deploy OFDM platforms?
- Which technologies will improve performance beyond 3G?
- Are 802.16m and 802.20 too late?
- What are the distinguishing attributes of each system?
- Can UMB find a market?
- What are the relative strengths/weaknesses of each platform?
- What factors will determine the success of 4G platforms?
Quantifies Through 2014
- Shipments and revenues for 802.16 infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and 802.16 subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for LTE infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and LTE subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for 802.20 infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and 802.20 subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for UMB infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and UMB subscribers and revenues
- Shipments and revenues for HSPA+ infrastructure deployments, client devices and femtocells and HSPA+ subscribers and revenues
- WCDMA and HSDPA/HSUPA subscribers and device shipments
- CDMA and EV-DO subscribers and device shipments
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