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Network Saturation?: Video’s impact on operators’ strategy

Published by: IDATE

Published: Feb. 1, 2008 - 44 Pages


Table of Contents


1. Introduction

2. Players involved

2.1. Value chain

2.2. Categories of players and market trends

2.2.1. Data transport players

Access

Metropolitan Area Networks (MAN)

National/regional transport

International transport

Submarine cable operators

2.2.2. Interconnection players

Collocation providers

Global Internet eXchanges (GIX)

Service platform hosts

2.2.3. Content broadcasting optimisation

2.2.4. Primary players by service category

3. Headed for network saturation?

3.1. Change in usage

3.1.1. P2P (Peer-to-Peer)

3.1.2. On-line gaming

3.1.3. On-line video

3.1.4. Other applications

3.2. Effect on networks?

3.2.1. Impact of usages on Internet traffic

3.2.2. Physical saturation more likely at the network nodes

3.2.3. Technical progress to compensate for saturation risks

3.2.4. Impact on players in the value chain

4. Impact on current models

4.1. Migration of transport network value and broadcasting to distributed content

4.2. Telecom operators positioning options

4.2.1. Refocus on being an operator

4.2.2. Vertical integration targeting publishing content and services

4.2.3. Diversification and expansion into the CDN business…

4.2.4. … and capturing control of distribution and revenue sharing

4.3. Conclusion

Summary of Tables and Figures

Table 1: Metropolitan Area Network Integration

Table 2: Change in Completel’s indicators

Table 3: Change in AMS-IX indicators

Table 4: AMS-IX top 10 by aggregated port speed

Table 5: Change in Akamai’s indicators

Table 6: Examples of service providers by service category

Table 7: Examples of interconnection players

Table 8: Market for massively multiplayer video games (millions USD)

Table 9: Impact of the growth in Internet traffic by category of player

Figure 1: Internet data transport value chain

Figure 2: Interoute’s pan-European network

Figure 3: FLAG Telecom’s worldwide network

Figure 4: Exchange at level 2

Figure 5: Exchange at layer 3

Figure 6: Status of OVH’s Paris network - 9/10/07/4:00 pm

Figure 7: Estimate of the need for speed for consumer applications

Figure 8: Comparison of the type of content downloaded during one quarter in France,

the United Kingdom and the United States

Figure 9: Internet traffic by type of protocol, 1993 - 2004 (in %)

Figure 10: Distribution of Internet traffic by type of protocol at the end of 2006

Figure 11: Expansion in the number of IPTV subscribers to telecom operators by region (mid-2005 to mid-2007)

Figure 12: Change in bandwidth needs per household for video

Figure 13: Change in the number of unique video viewers on YouTube

Figure 14: Growth and outlook for changes in Internet traffic

Figure 15: Change in backbone capacity

Figure 16: Change in cumulative traffic in the primary European GIX (in Gbps)

Figure 17: Change in the number of neutral and commercial GIX in Europe

Abstract

The Internet was built over the years by “assembling” networks run by various operators. Interconnection nodes, also called GIX (Global Internet eXchanges), perform traffic exchanges between these various networks. These exchanges are most often done through peering agreements, which are symmetrical and free. Usage has changed greatly and, just like other communication technologies, no one ever imagined the Internet’s success, with P2P exchanges, blogs, video content sites like YouTube, etc. The emergence of new uses, the increase in content, the success of some applications progressively puts into question the role played by a handful of players and agreements governing traffic exchanges, which have become asymmetrical. In particular, operators feel that other types of players are now taking advantage of a network in which they never invested. In addition, the changes required to provide increasingly better performance are costly, and the potential for changes in usage portend even greater investment in infrastructure. In the eyes of operators, the question of sharing the costs has become essential.

The objective of this study is to identify the actual risk of Internet network saturation. What is the outlook for Internet traffic changes and what are the consequences on infrastructure? What players will be the most involved? This report presents the strategic options that could be implemented by operators.

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