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Brazil Food and Drink Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 4, 2008 - 66 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food And Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Ratings - Q208
Brazil’s Food And Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings - Brazil’s Global Peer Group
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Brazil Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Brazil Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
Retail
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Brazil’s Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format, 2005-2012 (US$bn)
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2007 And 2017 (%)
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets, 2002-2007
Table: Structure Of Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2007 (US$mn)
Food And Drink
Regional Overview - Confectionery in Latin America
Table: Latin America - Estimated Confectionery Sales By Sub-Sector (US$mn)
Table: Latin American Confectionery Producers Ranked Among the World's 100, 2006
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Brazil’s Food Consumption Indicators, 2005-2012
Table: Brazil’s Canned Food Sales, 2005-2012
Table: Brazil’s Confectionery Sales, 2005-2012
Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Trade Indicators, 2005-2012 (US$mn)
Drink
Table: Brazil’s Beverage Sectors - Value/Volume Sales, 2006-2012 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: Brazil’s Dairy Industry Data, 2000-2006
Table: Brazil’s Agricultural Sub-Sector Production Data, 2000-2006
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales, 2005-2012
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2006
Table: Key Players in Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Sector (cont.)
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Food And Drink Sector,
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Grupo Bimbo In Latin America
Table: Grupo Bimbo’s Net Sales, 2005 And 2006 (US$mn)
Table: Grupo Bimbo’s Divisions
Table: Grupo Bimbo - Plants And Brands In Latin Americ
Food: Bunge Ltd In Latin America
Table: Bunge Ltd’s Net Sales To External Customers By Operating Segment, 2004-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Bunge Ltd’s Latin American Operations
Company Analysis
Food
Eleva Alimentos
Perdigão
Sadia SA
Drink
Embotelladora Andina
AmBev
Mass Grocery Retail
Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD)
Wal-Mart
Food And Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

Control over Brazil’s mass grocery retail (MGR) sector is currently one of the most highly-prized assetsin the whole of global retailing as discussed in BMI's newly-published Q208 Brazil Food & DrinkReport.

One local firm - Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD) - and two international firms -Wal-Mart and Carrefour - are currently battling ferociously to secure market share and consolidation iscontinuing at a very rapid pace - in total 12 of the top 20 supermarket chains that existed in 1997 havebeen absorbed by other groups. On top of this, the three largest firms have announced massive investmentprogrammes in the coming year as they all look to secure the loyalties of Brazil’s huge population.

According to the Brazilian Supermarket Association, in 2007 the supermarket sector grew at its largestrate for five years - taking into account an official inflation rate of 4.46%, supermarket sales rose 5.9% inreal terms. This figure is in line with BMI’s forecasts for the next five years with total MGR salesexpected to grow by 24.6%. The primary drivers of this growth are increased incomes, the expansion ofcredit, a decline in unemployment and rising food prices. This rate of growth has made Brazil a veryattractive investment location for the world’s top retailers. For example, in December 2007 Wal-Martexplicitly stated that Brazil was among its top four countries for strategic growth and since then it hasannounced plans to invest BRL1.2bn (US$693mn) in 2008 which will go towards opening 36 new stores.This investment exceeds the BRL1bn spent on around 20 new stores in 2007.

Brazil’s largest retailer, CBD, which is part owned by French firm Casino, has announced its ownexpansion plans for 2008 and intends to invest around BRL1bn (US$523mn) opening 105 new outlets.These will include 80 convenience stores, 14 cash and carry stores, seven supermarkets, three discountstores and one hypermarket. Although CBD is investing in all of its formats it appears that in 2008 theconvenience store sector will receive particular attention - a strategy that BMI believes is sensible;convenience stores are becoming increasingly popular as they fit in well with the lives of middle-classurban Brazilians. With the supermarket sector starting to look reasonably saturated in the most prosperousregions, the convenience store format is one of the avenues left open to target high-income shoppers.Sales at convenience stores are forecast by BMI to grow by a healthy 45% over the next five years.

For French-based Carrefour, Brazil has become increasingly important as sales have slowed in many ofits traditional markets. It has announced it will invest BRL1bn (US$523mn) a year over the next threeyears. Carrefour is likely to focus on its Carrefour-branded hypermarkets and its Dia-branded discountstores in the coming year, along with its newly-acquired Atacadão cash and carry chain. All three of themajor Brazilian retailers have announced similarly-sized expansion plans for the coming year. Withfinancial resources fairly even between the ‘big three’, the differentiating factor that will decide whodominates Brazilian retailing in the future is likely to be strategy and choice of store format - which firmhas the edge here is likely to become more apparent in the coming year.


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