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Venezuela Food and Drink Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 4, 2008 - 65 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Venezuela’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Venezuela Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Environmental Retailing in Latin America
Table: Possible Environmental Measures In The Food And Drink Supply Chain
Table: The Environmental Aspects Of Retailing, Possible Areas Of Activity
Table: Latin America, Ecological Footprint By Country
Table: Latin America, Area Under Organic Management By Country
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type - 2006 & 2016
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market by Estimated Numbers of Outlets
Table: Structure of Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales Value by Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Value Sales by Format - 2006
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in Latin America
Table: Latin America - Estimated Confectionery Sales (US$ mn)
Table: Latin American Confectionery Producers Ranked Among the World's 100, 2006
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Venezuela Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade Indicators (US$mn)
Drink
Table: Venezuela Beverage Sectors, Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Agriculture
Drink
Market Overview
Food
Agriculture
Table: Venezuela Dairy Industry Data (‘000 tonnes, unless stated)
Table: Venezuela Organic Agricultural Data, 2005
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Venezuela's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in Venezuela's Food & Drink Sector
Latin America Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Grupo Bimbo in Latin America
Table: Grupo Bimbo - Net Sales 2005 vs. 2006 (US$ mn)
Table: Grupo Bimbo - Divisions
Table: Grupo Bimbo - Plants & Brands in Latin America
Food: Bunge Ltd in Latin America
Table: Bunge Ltd, Net Sales To External Customers By Operating Segment, 2004-2006 (US$mn)
Table: Bunge Ltd, Latin American Operations
Mass Grocery Retail: Falabella in Latin America
Table: SACI Falabella - Company Structure
Table: SACI Falabella - Financial Indicators (US$ mn)
Company Analysis
Food
Alimentos Heinz CA
Cargill de Venezuela
Empresas Polar
Drink
Coca-Cola FEMSA
Pernod Ricard Venezuela
Mass Grocery Retail
Mercal CA
Makro Venezuela
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

The idiosyncratic food policies of Venezuela’s president Hugo Chávez show no signs of abating; indeeddevelopments in 2008 suggest that the government may actually be stepping up its policy of foodnationalisation.

These policies have moved from threatening private firms’ profits to threatening theirvery existence, with Chavéz making worrying statements about the possible appropriation of assets. Withongoing food shortages one of the main threats to Chávez’s popularity, Venezuela’s president is unlikelyto be satisfied until a large percentage of food production is in the hands of the state.

In the oil driven economy, government and consumer spending is rising on the back of bumper oilreceipts. However, a disparity between supply and demand has pushed inflation up to 22.5% in 2007 - thehighest level in Latin America. This is a considerable problem for the low-earning majority, who have asyet not seen their incomes rise in line with the country’s rising GDP. To address this threat to hispopularity Chávez created Mercal, a new nationalised food retailer, imposed a web of price controls andimposed export limits on many foods. Government-set prices have hardly risen since they wereintroduced in 2003, leading many producers, who are unable to operate at a profit, to close down plantsand reduce production levels. This drop in production has led to shortages of many basic food productsincluding milk, eggs, meat, chicken and wheat flour.

Empty shelves are a big threat to the government’s popularity and in 2008 Venezuela’s president hasmade several remarks that suggest he is now considering drastic moves to shore up supplies. In FebruaryChávez threatened to seize the assets of the country's milk producers, singling out Italian-based dairygiant Parmalat and Swiss-based Nestlé. Chávez suggested that these firms may pressurise or blackmailVenezuelan farmers to obtain their milk for export and claimed that state-owned dairy firms were havingdifficulty sourcing milk because the supplies had already been illegitimately secured by internationalcompanies. This was followed up by a warning to the country’s largest food producer Empresas Polar.Chávez claimed that the company was hoarding food and not abiding by price controls and called it a‘clear example’ of a business that could be taken over. The firm responded to this attack by revealing thatgovernment price controls do not apply to most of its products, and those that do have fixed prices aresold wholesale to supermarkets, leaving the markets, not the company, responsible for any overcharging.However, with Chávez anxious to take his country further down the road towards socialism - and stateowned food production part of that ideal - logical arguments may not be enough to counter the threat ofnationalisation.


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