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India Defence and Security Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 4, 2008 - 59 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Political SWOT
India Security SWOT
India Defence Industry SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: North and South-West Asia
General Overview
Inter-State Conflicts - Q108
Internal Conflicts - Q107
India Conflict Risk
India Terrorism Risk
India Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Religion
Insurgency
Assam
Nagaland
Maoists
Refugees
External Security Situation
International Terrorism
Border Disputes
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted)
International Deployments
Table: India Deployments
Joint Exercises
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Table: Indian Nuclear-capable Delivery Vehicles
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Imports
Exports
Industry Trends & Developments
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Sce41
Table: Defence Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: India - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)
Ordnance Factories (OF)
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL)
BAE-HAL Software Ltd
Rolls-Royce International
Honeywell International
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

As in the previous two quarters, most security issues in India were overshadowed by the deterioration ofthe political and internal security situation in Pakistan. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December27 2007 and the subsequent unrest, including widespread fighting between Pakistani government forcesand militants on three fronts, has further compounded the regional instability engendered by the poorsecurity situation in Afghanistan. While the possibility of a partial or complete breakdown of law andorder in Pakistan constitutes a significant (if entirely unpredictable in nature) threat to India’s security, atleast one positive implication of the situation has been the diminishment of Indo-Pakistani tensionsrelating to the dispute over Kashmir.

With respect to its myriad internal security challenges, the news from India remains pretty grim. Forexample, 50 Naxalites were among the 300 prisoners who escaped from Chhattisgarh jail in mid-December. At the same time, attacks by Naxalites against police stations - and other targets - in UttarPradesh continued. In north-east India: the United Liberation Front of Assam carried out severalbombings. Also, at the beginning of January 2008, the state government of Nagaland was dismissed: thatstate is now run directly by the Government of India from New Delhi. Violence also continued in Nepal,where the Constituent Assembly elections were postponed until April 10 2008.

An ongoing notable feature of India’s defence industry is the strength of its relationship with Russia. Thisis testified to by the recent signing of an Inter-Governmental Agreement for the Joint Development andProduction of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft. At the same time, the continuing delay in the refittingand delivery to India of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, and the spiralling of its associated costs, inpart due to the decreasing value of the US dollar, has proved a slight annoyance to India.

Several significant recent events reported by the Indian Ministry of Defence are also worth noting. OnJanuary 18, the 6th Battalion of the Sikh Regiment departed from Delhi in order to take up its role in theUN Peace Keeping Mission in Congo. On the same day, the Minister of State for Defence Shri MMPallam Raju announced that the government had no immediate plans to initiate conscription. Thisannouncement came in response to widespread speculation that the government was considering adoptingconscription due to an acute shortage of students opting for military officers’ training through the NDAand CDS exams. Finally, on January 21, the Defence Minister Shri AK Antony inaugurated a two-dayseminar entitled ‘Synergising Defence, Industry and Technology through Standardisation - Perspectiveconcerns and Spin offs’. The seminar was organised by the Directorate of Standardisation underDepartment of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence, and was seen as the first step of the plan todevelop and upgrade the country's defence standardisation and codification procedures in line withinternational standards.

India and Vietnam have agreed to further expand their relations in defence co-operation. The DefenceMinister Shri AK Antony announced that New Delhi will assist Vietnam in restoring and maintaining theoperational capabilities of its ageing navy by transferring 5,000 naval spares designed for the Petya classwarship. The coming months should also see an Indian team training Vietnamese troops for UN PeaceKeeping Operations. In general, these events are indicative of the ongoing movement by India andVietnam towards a close strategic partnership. India has likewise been increasing its defence ties withFrance, discussing plans for service-to-service co-operation activities later this year, and hostingdiscussions pertaining to the joint development, production and research of defence infrastructure andmunitions.

Finally, it is worth noting that over the past 12 months, the Indian Army has staged joint exercises withthe Armies of China, the UK, Maldives, Russia and Singapore. The joint exercise with China wasparticularly noteworthy, being the first of its kind between the traditional military rivals. The Indian AirForce carried out joint exercises with the air forces of France and Russia, and the Indian Navy carried outjoint exercises with the navies of the US, Russia, Japan, Oman, Australia, France, Malaysia, New Zealandand Singapore.


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