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Bulgaria Autos Report Q2 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Apr. 4, 2008 - 44 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Auto Industry SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Regional Overview:
Post-Daewoo Success
Business Environment Rankings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ranking
Bulgaria - Business Environment Ranking
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Industry Forecast Sce19
Production and Sales
Table: Bulgaria Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Macroeconomic Contribution
Table: Bulgaria Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Industry Trends And Developments
Regulation
Brand Competition
Table: Bulgaria, Top 10 Brands In The Car Market, 2007
Component Production
Table: Component Production
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Bulgaria, Key Players In Bulgarian Truck And Bus Sales, 2007
Company Monitor Regional Case Study: Ford
Sales
Table: Ford passenger car sales by market, Central and Eastern Europe, 2007
Production
Company Profiles
EPIQ Electronic Assembly
Grammer JSC
Alucom
BMI Forecast Modelling
Automobile Industry
Sources


Abstract

Bulgaria’s automotive sector performed better than BMI expected, with the post-accession influx of usedcars only exerting moderate downward pressure on automotive sales, according to our latest BulgariaAutomotive Report.

Strong economic growth, rising incomes and the growth of credit options for car loans have combined tomake the Bulgarian car market one of the fastest growing in Europe. However, it remains one of thesmallest markets. In terms of sales volume, Bulgaria still lags behind other EU states with similarpopulation size. In Austria, Sweden and Portugal, car sales amounted to 339,699, 358,722 and 276,643units respectively, putting Bulgaria’s automotive market at a fifth of the level achieved in the EU’s moredeveloped economies in terms of per capita sales.

In 2007, Bulgarian automotive sales totalled 51,728 units (up 21.9%), including 41,029 passenger cars(up 26.2%) and 10,699 commercial vehicles (up 7.0%). In terms of market share, Toyota was the mostpopular brand, with its sales rising 38.2% to 5,813 units with a market share of 11.18%. Peugeot’s 5.3%drop in sales meant it fell from first to third place in 2007, with 4,384 units sold. Ford moved from thirdto second place, with sales up 8.56% to 4,450 units. In the top 10 most popular brands, Dacia, Chevroletand Volkswagen recorded growth of 75.1%, 55.6% and 53.9% respectively. Compact city cars and midsizemodels generated 44.2% of overall automotive sales in 2007. Small and mid-size vans generated afurther 21% of sales while four-wheel-drives contributed 16.6%. The Dacia Logan sedan, manufacturedin neighbouring Romania, was Bulgaria’s most popular car model in 2007 with 2,529 units sold.

In 2007, Mercedes retained its lead in the commercial vehicles segment, with sales rising 34.1% to 1,218units, giving it a market share of 36.6%. Iveco also maintained its second place position with a 23.2%market share, despite an 11.6% drop in sales. Volvo’s performance was impressive, with sales up 149.2%to 633 units, giving it a market share of 19.0%. This was secured by the opening of a new Volvo truckcentre in Sofia in April 2007, including a spare parts warehouse. The first Volvo-owned workshop openedin the country in 2000.

Bulgaria scored 39.1 (out of a theoretical maximum of 100) in BMI’s new automotive businessenvironment rating, putting it joint last with Croatia in our regional rankings. This market’s stronger areasinclude a highly competitive environment and low market risk. Areas of particular weakness are theregulatory environment and the lack of assembly facilities. Bulgaria has the lowest rate of car ownershipin the EU. The situation is changing with rising income levels leading to rapid car sales growth and ahighly competitive market in which no brand is dominant. BMI expects Bulgaria to climb up the rankingsin the years ahead, a trend that could be given a major boost if an automotive producer decides to set upassembly operations in the country.


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