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The Great Apparel Sourcing Issues of 2008 - and How to Deal with Them - Management Briefing

Published by: just-style

Published: Apr. 1, 2008 - 36 Pages


Table of Contents


Introduction

How the apparel industry globalised

Where garments are bought

Where garments are sourced

What is sourced abroad?

Where is it sourced from?

Pressure on supply sources

The returns from a cheaper workforce are doomed to diminish

The world seems to have run out of Shangri-Las

The conventional wisdom in 2007

What the market wanted

Ever-declining prices

Faster turnarounds

Profits still under pressure, despite buying cheap and selling fast

More pressure on ethics

But consolidation never really happened

Uncertainty

East Asia

Suppliers near home

The rest of the world

The 2008 multiple whammy

Why we believed in permanent deflation

Then the whammy

Market growth is slowing

Imports are slowing - though hardly falling from cliffs

Inflation is rising in poor countries...

…so is economic growth

Growth in emerging-market retail too

But populations aren't growing as fast

And then there's the herd mentality

The reality in China

Why should it be taken particularly seriously?

Why Chinese propaganda needs a grain of salt

What is currently being claimed?

Growing input costs, especially of energy and raw materials

Increasingly expensive customer demands

Growing labour costs

Real costs of quotas and duty

Currency

Conclusion

The wider problem

The problem is common…

…but the whammies' effects vary widely

Consumer price inflation

Other inflationary influences on wages

Consumer price inflation passed through to higher wages

Raw material inflation

Manufacturers' greater preference for local sales

The herd mentality works two ways

The need to pass prices on

What to do about it?

What's going on?

What can be done?

What's the best source of intelligence?

Is that the only source?


List of figures

Figure 1: Destination of Chinese apparel manufacture, Nov 2007 (% country/region share)

Figure 2: China age groups, 2000-2022 (m people)

Figure 3: Chinese labour costs, wages and productivity, 2000-2006 (index)


List of tables

Table 1: Apparel retail market size, 2005-2007 (US$bn and %)

Table 2: Apparel import penetration, 2006 (%)

Table 3: Garment imports to Japan, the EU and the US, Jan-Sep 2006 (% share by source country)

Table 4: Clothing retail sales (% change on previous year)

Table 5: Change in apparel imports by importing country/region, 2007 (% change on 2006)

Table 6: Volume changes in individual countries' exports

Table 7: Consumer inflation (% change in consumer prices on same period previous year)

Table 8: China's factory-gate annual clothing inflation (%)

Abstract

By 2007, the overwhelming majority of apparel buyers and sellers had adjusted themselves to a world in which virtually all clothes sold in affluent countries were assembled in poorer countries. The relocation of manufacture had brought prices down over the previous 15 years and restrictions and taxes on international trade were generally headed for extinction. However, subtle differences between the ways each exporting country is treated has made understanding trade restrictions increasingly difficult. This briefing reviews apparel trade over the last 12 months and looks at how to deal with the major sourcing issues in 2008.

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