South African Banking Sector Analysis

Published by: RNCOS

Published: Apr. 1, 2008 - 70 Pages

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. Industry Overview

2.1 Global Banking Industry

2.1.1 Overview

2.1.2 Regional Segmentation

2.1.3 Top Performing Banks

2.2 South African Banking Industry in Global Context

3. What Makes South African Banking Industry Attractive?

3.1 Economic Growth & Development

3.2 Non-performing Loans

3.3 Household Disposable Income

3.4 Government Initiatives

3.5 Non-residents Deposits

3.6 FDI Inflows

3.7 Bankable Households

3.8 Housing Finance

4. South African Banking Industry Performance

4.1 Bank Deposits

4.1.1 Residents

4.1.2 Non-residents

4.2 Bank Loans

4.2.1 Mortgage Loans

4.2.2 Foreign Loans

4.2.3 Installment Debtors

4.2.4 Overdrafts & Loans

4.2.5 Resale Agreements

4.2.6 Credit Card Debtors

4.3 Bank Assets

4.3.1 Monetary Assets

4.3.2 Non-bank Loans & Advances

4.3.3 Interbank Loans & Advances

4.3.4 Trading & Investment Portfolio

4.3.5 Non-financial Assets

4.4 Bank Investments

4.5 Bank Profitability

4.6 Credit Card Transactions

4.6.1 By Number

4.6.2 By Value

4.7 Cheque Transactions

4.7.1 By Number

4.7.2 By Value

4.8 Electronic Transactions

4.8.1 By Number

4.8.2 By Value

5. Industry Analysis

5.1 Ratio Analysis

5.1.1 Loan to Deposit Ratio

5.1.2 Investment to Deposit Ratio

5.1.3 Loan to Asset Ratio

5.1.4 Capital Adequacy Ratio

5.2 Opportunities

5.2.1 Financial Cards

5.2.2 Online Banking

5.2.3 Target Population

5.2.4 Interest Rate & 2010 World Cup

5.2.5 Support Services

5.2.6 Retail Banking

5.2.7 Mobile Banking

5.3 Challenges

5.3.1 Basel II Accords

5.3.2 Awareness Level

5.3.3 Concentrated Banking System

5.3.4 Critical Diseases

6. Future Outlook (2008-2011)

7. Key Players

7.1 Domestic Players

7.1.1 ABSA Group Limited

7.1.2 Standard Bank Group Limited

7.1.3 FirstRand Limited

7.1.4 Nedbank Group Limited

7.1.5 Investec Limited

7.2 Foreign Players

7.2.1 Citibank N.A.

7.2.2 Deutsche Bank AG

7.2.3 ABN AMRO Holding N.V

7.2.4 JPMorgan Chase & Co.

7.2.5 State Bank of India

List of Figures

Figure 2-1: Global - Assets of Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2002-2006

Figure 2-2: Global - Forecast for Assets of Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 2-3: Global - Deposits with Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2002-2006

Figure 2-4: Global - Forecast for Deposits with Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 2-5: Global - Loans by Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2002-2006

Figure 2-6: Global - Forecast for Loans by Banking Industry (in Trillion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 2-7: South Africa - Growth Comparison of Assets of Banking Industry with World (%), 2003-2006

Figure 2-8: South Africa - Share of Banked & Unbanked Population (%), 2004-2006

Figure 3-1: South Africa - Forecast for Nominal GDP (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 3-2: South Africa - Per Head Personal Disposable Income (in US$), 2002-2006E

Figure 3-3: South Africa - Growth of Deposits with Banking Industry by Non-residents (%), 2004-2006

Figure 3-4: South Africa - Number of Bankable Households (in Million), 2002-2006E

Figure 4-1: South Africa - Deposits with Banking* Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-2: South Africa - Deposits with Banking Industry by Residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003, 2004, 2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-3: South Africa - Deposits with Banking Industry by Non-residents (in Billion ZAR), 2003, 2004, 2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-4: South Africa - Loans* by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-5: South Africa - Break-up of Loans by Banking Industry (%), 2006

Figure 4-6: South Africa - Mortgage Loans by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-7: South Africa - Share of Mortgage Loans by Major Banks (%), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-8: South Africa - Foreign Loans by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-9: South Africa - Banking Industry Installment Debtor (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-10: South Africa - Share of Installment Finance by Major Banks (%), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-11: South Africa - Overdrafts & Loans by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-12: South Africa - Share of Overdrafts & Loans by Major Banks (%), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-13: South Africa - Banking Industry Resale Agreements (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-14: South Africa - Banking Industry Credit Card Debtors (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-15: South Africa - Assets of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-16: South Africa - Break-up of Banking Industry Assets (%), 2006

Figure 4-17: South Africa - Monetary Assets of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-18: South Africa - Non-bank Loans & Advances of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-19: South Africa - Interbank Loans & Advances of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-20: South Africa - Trading & Investment Portfolio of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-21: South Africa - Non-financial Assets of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Figure 4-22: South Africa - Investment by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-23: South Africa - Investment Portfolio of Banking Industry (%), 2006

Figure 4-24: South Africa - Interest Income* of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-25: South Africa - Income of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-26: South Africa - Net Income of Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-27: South Africa - Share of Credit Cards by Major Banks (%), 2005 & 2006

Figure 4-28: South Africa - Number of Credit Card Transactions (in Million), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-29: South Africa - Credit Cards Transactions (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-30: South Africa - Number of Cheque Transactions* (in Million), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-31: South Africa - Cheque Transactions* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-32: South Africa - Number of Electronic Transactions* (in Million), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 4-33: South Africa - Electronic Transactions* (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006 & H1 2007

Figure 5-1: South Africa - Loan to Deposit Ratio of Banking Industry (%), 2002-2006

Figure 5-2: South Africa - Investment to Deposit Ratio of Banking Industry (%), 2002-2006

Figure 5-3: South Africa - Loan to Asset Ratio of Banking Industry (%), 2002-2006

Figure 5-4: South Africa - Capital Adequacy Ratio of Banking Industry (%), 2005 & 2006

Figure 5-5: South Africa - Forecast for Population in Age Group of 15-64 Years (%), 2007*-2011

Figure 5-6: South Africa - Forecast for Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2007*-2011

Figure 5-7: South Africa - H-Index of Banking System (2002-2006)

Figure 5-8: South Africa - Forecast for Population Growth (%), 2007*-2011

Figure 6-1: South Africa - Forecast for Deposits with Banking Industry** (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 6-2: South Africa - Forecast for Assets of Banking Industry** (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 6-3: South Africa - Forecast for Loans by Banking Industry** (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011

Figure 6-4: South Africa - Forecast for Net Interest Income of Banking Industry** (in Billion US$), 2007*-2011

List of Tables

Table 2-1: Global - Banking Industry Loans by Region (in Trillion US$), 2002-2006

Table 2-2: Global - Forecast for Banking Industry Loans by Region (in Trillion US$), 2007*-2011

Table 2-3: Global - Top Performing Banks by Assets (in Billion US$), 2006

Table 4-1: South Africa - Break-up of Loans by Banking Industry (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Table 4-2: South Africa - Break-up of Banking Industry Assets (in Billion ZAR), 2002-2006

Table 7-1: ABSA Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006

Table 7-2: Standard Bank of South Africa - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2005 & 2006

Table 7-3: FirstRand Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2006 & 2007

Table 7-4: Nedbank Group Limited - Key Financials (in Million ZAR), 2004-2006

Table 7-5: Investec Limited - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2005-2007

Table 7-6: Citigroup Inc. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006

Table 7-7: Deutsche Bank AG - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006

Table 7-8: ABN AMRO Holding N.V - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006

Table 7-9: JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Key Financials (in Million US$), 2004-2006

Table 7-10: State Bank of India - Key Financials (in Crore INR), 2006 & 2007

Abstract

The South African banking industry is experiencing significant growth, especially in terms of banking assets. During 2003-2006, asset growth recorded in the South African banking industry was higher than that witnessed in the global banking industry (though it was lower in 2004), according to “South African Banking Sector Analysis”, a new research report by RNCOS.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a considerable role in the development of South Africa’s economy. The number of multinationals with direct investments or employees in South Africa is increasing fast. Additionally, EU accounted for approx 66% of net foreign investment in South Africa in 2003 and 2004, and in 2005, EU’s share in the total assets held by foreigners in South Africa amounted to around 60%.

The research report provides valuable year on year trend analysis on the growing banking industry, and products and services offered by it. Its a thorough study on the structure of the South African banking industry and gives a detailed analysis of the driving and restraining forces operating in the industry.

Key Findings

• The YOY banking industry deposits in South Africa increased by 24.4% in 2006 as compared to a 19.8% YOY hike in 2005.
• During 2002-2006, banking loans grew at a CAGR of 18.03% due to lower interest rate and rising consumer expenditure in South Africa.
• The number of credit card purchases increased at a CAGR of 13.18% between 2002 and 2006.
• Rising disposable income, along with other factors, will drive the South African banking industry deposits to grow at a projected CAGR of 4.8% by 2011.
• During 2007-2011, net interest income of the South African banking industry is expected to surge at a CAGR of 13.19% due to rising interest margins and soaring return on banking investments.

Key Issues & Facts Analyzed

• Market analysis of different product segments in the South African banking industry.
• Evaluation of present and its future market trends.
• Factors pushing the banking industry of South Africa toward growth.
• Analysis of challenges and growth prospects for the industry.
• Competitive landscape of the industry.

Key Players

This section provides overview and key financials of prominent domestic and foreign players like ABSA Group Limited, Investec Limited, FirstRand Limited, Citibank N.A., Deutsche Bank AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan Chase), State Bank of India, etc.

Research Methodology Used

Information Sources
Information has been sourced from books, newspapers, trade journals, and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, monitoring industry news and developments, and through access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Methods
Methods used for analyzing the facts and figures given in this report include ratio analysis, historical trend analysis, judgmental forecasting, and cause and effect analysis.

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