Fixed WiMAX: Opportunities for 'Last Mile" Broadband Access 2008-2013

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Apr. 1, 2008 - 137 Pages

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Forecast

Figure ES.1: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure ES.2: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast

Figure ES.3: DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) Global

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure ES.4: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013 19

Figure ES.5: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure ES.6: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure ES.7: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Key Market Trends for Fixed 802.16e WiMAX

Main WiMAX Drivers

Main WiMAX Inhibitors

Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Status

Operator Case Studies

Recommendations

Fixed WiMAX Service Providers

Fixed WiMAX Vendors

1. Last Mile Broadband - The Technologies

1.1 WiMAX

1.1.1 OFDM

Figure 1.1: OFDM Spectrum

1.2 Fixed WiMAX (802.16d-2004)

1.3 Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005)

Figure 1.2: WiMAX Timeline

Figure 1.3: Difference between OFDM and OFDMA

Table 1.1: Scalable OFDM: Sub Carrier Permutations

1.4 Duplexing Techniques

1.4.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)

Figure 1.4: Frequency Division Duplexing

1.4.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)

Figure 1.5: Time Division Duplexing

1.5 HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)

Figure 1.6: HSDPA Performance Improvements

Figure 1.7: LTE Migration to Packet Core

1.6 CDMA 1X EVDO and UMB

1.7 Competing Broadband Access Technologies

1.7.1 ADSL

i. Comparison of ADSL with WiMAX

1.7.2 WiFi and Mesh Networking

Table 1.2: List of WiFi Standards

Figure 1.8: WiFi Mesh Network

i. QoS (Quality of Service) in WiFi

ii. Differences between WiMAX 802.16e and WiFi

Table 1.3: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX (802.16-2004) and 802.11

iii. WiFi Mesh and Mobile WiMAX

1.7.3 Satellite

i. Satellite and Fixed WiMAX

1.8 Industry Associations

1.8.1 WiMAX Forum

Table: 1.4: WiMAX Forum Working Groups

1.8.2 WiMAX Certification

Table: 1.5: The Certification Process

1.8.3 WiMAX Spectrum Owners Alliance (WiSOA)

Table: 1.6: The WiSOA Working Groups

1.8.4 DSL Forum

Figure 1.9: Broadbandsuite Release 2.0

Figure 1.10: Broadbandsuite Release 3.0

1.8.5 Satellite Industry Association (SIA)

1.8.6 WiFi Alliance

1.8.7 GSM Association (GSMA)

Table: 1.7: The GSMA Working Groups

1.8.8 CDMA Development Group (CDG)

2. Market Trends for WiMAX 802.16e

2.1 Introduction

2.2 WiMAX Drivers

Table 2.1: Top WiMAX Drivers as Ranked by Survey Respondents

2.2.1 100% IP

2.2.2 Lack of Infrastructure in Developing Countries

2.2.3 Attractive for Green Field Operators

2.2.4 Spectrum Availability & Efficiency

2.2.5 High QoS & Data Rate

2.2.6 Fixed, Portable & Mobile Usage

2.3 WiMAX Inhibitors

Table 2.2: Top WiMAX Inhibitors as Ranked by Survey Respondents

2.3.1 Widespread Commercial Availability Unlikely Before 2009

2.3.2 Poor Mobility

2.3.3 New Network Build Required

2.3.4 Brand Identification and Service Differentiation

2.4 Conclusion

3. WiMAX 802.16e: Market Status

3.1 North America

3.1.1 Overall Status

3.1.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.1: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.1.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.2: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.2 South America

3.2.1 Overall Status

Table 3.3: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.2.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.4: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.2.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.5: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.3 Western Europe

3.3.1 Overall Status

Table 3.6: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.3.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.7: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.3.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.8: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.4 Eastern Europe

3.4.1 Overall Status

Table 3.9: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.4.2 Contract Examples

Table 3.10: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Q1 2008

3.5 Far East & China

3.5.1 Overall Status

Table 3.11: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.5.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.12: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.5.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.13: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.6 Indian Sub-Continent

3.6.1 Overall Status

Table 3.14: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.6.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.15: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.6.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.16: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.7.1 Overall Status

Table 3.17: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.7.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.18: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.8 Africa & Middle East

3.8.1 Overall Status

Table 3.19: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.8.2 Trial Examples

Table 3.20: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008

3.8.3 Contract Examples

Table 3.21: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008

3.9 Target Market Analysis

Table 3.22: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: N. America

Table 3.23: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: S. America

Table 3.24: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: W. Europe

Table 3.25: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: E. Europe

Table 3.26: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: Far East & China

Table 3.27: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: India Sub Continent

Table 3.28: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: Africa & Middle East

3.10 Conclusion

4. Operator Case Studies

4.1 Altech

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

4.2 Danske Telecom

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

4.3 DigitalBridge Communications (DBC)

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

4.4 FREEDOM4

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. WiMAX Trial Details

iv. WiMAX Strategy

4.5 Nth Air

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. WiMAX Trial Details

iv. WiMAX Trial Feedback and Future Developments

4.6 Urban WiMAX

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

5. Global Fixed WiMAX Forecast

5.1 Subscriber Forecasting Technique

5.1.1 Overall Approach

5.1.2 Methodology and Assumptions

Figure 5.1: W. Europe DSL Subscriber Base by Download Rates, at the End of 2006

Figure 5.2: % of DSL Subscribers with Download Speeds of 2Mbit/s or Less by Region 2006 - 2013

5.1.3 Geographical Splits

5.2 Market Issues

5.2.1 Devices

Figure 5.3: Types of WiMAX Access Possible Under the IEEE Standards

Figure 5.4 ZyXEL MAX-200M1 IEEE 802.16e CPE

Figure 5.5 Samsung’s WiMAX USB Dongle SPH-H1200 - (WiMAX Card / Receiver)

5.2.2 Regulatory

i. World Radiocommunications Conference Agreement

ii. European Commission

iii. Spectrum Auctions

5.2.3 Untapped Potential in Developing Countries

Table 5.1: India & the US - Basic Statistics 2007

5.2.4 ARPU

Figure 5.6: 802.16e WiMAX ARPU ($) in Fixed Applications - Regional Forecast, 2008- 2013

Table 5.2: 802.16e WiMAX ARPU ($) in Fixed Applications - Regional Forecast, 2008- 2013

5.3 Global Broadband and DSL Subscriber Forecast

Figure 5.7: Broadband Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006-2013

Table 5.3: Broadband Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006-2013

Figure 5.8: DSL Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006 - 2013

Table 5.4: DSL Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecasts - 2006 - 2013

5.4 Global Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Forecast

Figure 5.9: DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) Global

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 5.10: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 5.5: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 5.11: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast

Figure 5.12: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 201391

Figure 5.13: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 5.6: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 5.14: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Market Size (% Subscribers) Regional Forecast

5.5 Fixed vs. Mobile WiMAX Market Trends

Figure 5.15: 802.16e Global Fixed & Mobile WiMAX Market Comparison (%), 2008 & 2013

5.6 Global Fixed WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast

Figure 5.16: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 5.7: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013

5.7 Global Fixed WiMAX Device Forecast

Table 5.8: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Wholesale Pricing ($) Forecast, 2008-2013

Figure 5.17: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013

6. North America Fixed WiMAX Forecast

6.1 North America Broadband Overview

Figure 6.1: N. America Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

6.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

6.2.1 Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Market Size & Growth

Figure 6.2: N. America DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 6.3: N. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 6.1: N. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 6.4: N. America Fixed, 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast 2008 - 2013

7. South America Fixed WiMAX Forecast

7.1 South America Broadband Overview

Figure 7.1: S. America Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

7.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 7.2: S. America DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 7.3: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 7.1: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 7.4: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

8. Western Europe Fixed WiMAX Forecast

8.1 Western Europe Broadband Overview

Figure 8.1: W. Europe Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

8.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 8.2: W. Europe DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 8.3: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 8.1: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 8.4: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

9. Eastern Europe Fixed WiMAX Forecast

9.1 Eastern Europe Broadband Overview

Figure 9.1: E. Europe Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

9.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 9.2: E. Europe DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000’s)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 9.3: E. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 9.1: E. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 9.4: Eastern Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

10. Far East & China Fixed WiMAX Forecast

10.1 Far East & China Broadband Overview

Figure 10.1: Far East & China Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 10.2: Far East & China FTTH Penetration

10.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 10.3: Far East & China DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber

Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 10.4: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 10.1: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 10.5: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

11. Indian Sub Continent Fixed WiMAX Forecast

11.1 Indian Sub Continent Broadband Overview

Figure 11.1: Indian Sub Continent Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s Subscribers)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

11.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 11.2: Indian Sub Continent DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber

Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 11.3: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 11.1: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 11.4: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

12. Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed WiMAX Forecast

12.1 Rest of Asia-Pacific Broadband Overview

Figure 12.1: Rest of Asia-Pacific Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

12.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

Figure 12.2: Rest of Asia-Pacific DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber

Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 12.3: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 12.1: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers)

Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 12.4: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

13. Africa & Middle East Fixed WiMAX Forecast

13.1 Africa & Middle East Broadband Overview

Figure 13.1: Africa & Middle East Broadband Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

13.2 Fixed WiMAX Forecasts

13.2.1 Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Market Size & Growth

Figure 13.2: Africa & Middle East DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000’s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 13.3: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Table 13.1: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000’s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Figure 13.4: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

Abstract

This comprehensive report provides a complete assessment of the opportunities for 802.16e WiMAX to replace DSL as a "last mile" technology.The report examines the key drivers and inhibitors for this wireless broadband technology and the detailed assessment also provides case studies on a number of 802.16e operators based on one-on-one interviews with key industry players. The primary target market focus of 55 service providers who have made recent commercial network announcements is analysed, and the report compares the advantages and disadvantages of the various last mile technology alternatives.

Furthermore this thorough appraisal of the future opportunities for 802.16e WiMAX forecasts five year subscriber numbers and service revenues up until 2013 for fixed 802.16e WiMAX globally and by region for eight regions, along with ARPU and device markets.

Key Questions Answered In the Report:

• At what rate will the regional DSL subscriber base migrate to WiMAX?
• How large will the fixed WiMAX market be over 5 years?
• What do key industry players believe are the market drivers and inhibitors for fixed WiMAX?
• How much service revenue will be generated by fixed WiMAX?
• Which will be the top fixed WiMAX regional markets in the future?
• How will fixed WiMAX average revenue per user (ARPU) trends change over the next 5 years?
• Which countries have new fixed WiMAX trials and networks been awarded to?
• How will fixed WiMAX network operators be deploying their networks?

Get Full Details About This Report >>

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