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Latvia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 22, 2008 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Latvia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Political SWOT
Economic SWOT
Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rankings
Pharmaceutical Ratings - Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Latvia - Business Environment Ranking
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rankings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Latvia - Market Summary
Industry Trends And Developments
Regulatory Regime
Recent Regulatory Developments
Corruption
Intellectual Property Developments
Table: USTR Special 301 Report
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Industry Developments
Health Profile
Table: Incidence Of Infectious And Parasitic Diseases, 2007 (cases per 100,000 population)
Healthcare Sector
Pharmaceutical Industry
Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments
Wholesale
Retail
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios
Biotechnology
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Latvia Drug Market Trends
Key Growth Factors - Industry
Table: Latvia’s Health Expenditure Trends
Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
Table: Latvia - Economic Activity
Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Market Indicators (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
OTC Market Forecast
Table: OTC Market Indicators (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
Generics And Patented Market Forecast
Table: Latvia Generics And Patented Market Forecast Indicators
Export/Import Forecasts
Table: Trade Trends (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Table: Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Players In Latvia, 2006
Table: Leading Products By Producers In Latvia 2005
Company Monitors
Multinational Company Profiles
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
Sanofi-Aventis
Novartis
Merck & Co
Indigenous Company Profiles
Grindeks (includes Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant)
Olainfarm
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Industry
Sources

Abstract

According to IMS Health, the total Latvian pharmaceutical market grew 30.1% year-on-year (y-o-y),reaching a value of LVL47.26mn (US$90.9mn) in Q107. While the annual growth rate will continue to bein double-digit figures, BMI expects that the market will not replicate such a robust rate over the comingfive years. The key reasons for the more conservative estimates are the broader economic worries and alack of traction on healthcare policy. Even a smooth landing for Latvia’s current boom should see overallgrowth and spending ease markedly by the end of the decade. In addition, the Latvian currency - which ispegged to the euro - is being pressured by strong growth in consumer spending and imports, resulting in ahigh current account deficit.

Prescription drugs continue to account for around 70% of spending on medicines, although this figure isforecast to decline to 65% by 2012 due to the increased uptake of OTC products. While hospitals remainmain access point for healthcare, the modernisation of the primary care sector will gradually reduce thenumber of hospital-issued prescriptions. In the meantime, the government will continue promotinggenerics as a means of containing healthcare costs, with the segment forecast to represent some 54% oftotal market value by 2012, up from around 50% in 2007.

In the BMI’s adjusted Business Environment Ranking table for the 15 key pharmaceutical markets ofCentral and Eastern Europe (CEE), for Q108 Latvia received the same score as Poland and Slovakia. Thethree countries share the ninth place, with their pharmaceutical rating falling just below the average forthe CEE region. Key limits to potential returns include the country’s small and falling populationnumbers, relatively low per capita income of the population, corruption and limited reimbursementspending. On the other hand, market risks are relatively few, given the high degree of patent protection.In terms of the country’s pharmaceutical landscalpe, multinationals continued to dominate Latvia’sdomestic market, with GlaxoSmithKlein (GSK), Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Berlin Chemie-Menarini andRoche taking the top five spots by sales, according to IMS Health. The country’s second-largest domesticdrugmaker, Olainfarm - which has a strong local market position - posted a strong sales and profitsincrease in 2007. The largest domestic drugmaker - export-oriented Grindeks - announced plans to seeka market authorisation for cardiovascular treatment Mildronate, its top-selling drug. Drugmakers arebenefiting from the buoyant market, but they will be keenly aware that the good times may not last.

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