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Iran Business Forecast Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Oct. 26, 2007 - 55 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Ratings
Domestic Politics
A Delicate Game As The Struggle Intensifies
While the election of former politician Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to the head of the Assembly of Experts is
encouraging in terms of the growing influence of pragmatist figures in the Republic, we do not believe that this
heralds an immediate change in policy
Foreign Policy
US-Iran Talks Continue But Risks Remain
Recent moves by Washington and Tehran bode well for the continuation of diplomacy, and we maintain our view
that the prospect of a military conflict in the short to medium term remains minimal
Table: Cabinet List
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
Economic Activity
Economic Woes To Continue
We maintain our bearish outlook for the Iranian economy, and see no improvement in policy under the current
administration
Table: Economic Activity
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal Situation To Remain Negative
We maintain our negative outlook for the Iranian fiscal position on the basis of continued imprudent economic
policymaking, and see risks purely to the downside
Table: Fiscal Policy
Balance Of Payments
Oil Boosts BoP, But Politics A Risk
The current account is set to stay positive but politics continue to impose a drag
Table: Balance Of Payments
Regional Investment Climate
The Global Picture
Chapter 3: Special Report
Negative Oil Price Shock Scenario
Table: Top 10 Energy Producers, Consumers And Importers
Table: % Point Changes To Base Forecasts From A Downward Oil Price Adjustment Scenario
Chapter 4: Business Environment
SWOT Analysis
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
Legal Framework
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Foreign Trade Regime
Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Iran, Annual Inflows
Tax Regime
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
Freight Transport
Table: Iran Freight Transport Industry Forecast
Petrochemicals
Table: Petrochemicals Sector Forecasts


Abstract

Imprudent Macro Management Still Taints Outlook

With both the US and Iranian administrations under pressure domestically and externally, thelikelihood of a military conflict erupting remains small. The president of Iran has come under increasingpressure due to his poor handling of the economy, while many in the regime appear to bedispleased with Iran’s increasing isolation in the international arena. At the same time, the issuesof Iraq and Afghanistan continue to dog the White House. These dynamics, and the recent flurryof diplomatic activity including unprecedented talks between Iran and the US over Iraq, shouldwork against a new military campaign. However, the danger is that hard-liners on both sides couldprovoke a crisis that puts an end to diplomacy.


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