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Fertilizer Industry In India - Will Government Policy & Subsidies Aid Players?

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Oct. 1, 2007 - 156 Pages


Table of Contents


Sections
Deficit scenario to continue, as policy delays affect new investments
Executive summary
1.0 Demand
Consumption of fertilisers
Consumption demand drivers
Fertiliser demand: Alternative forecasts
Supply projections
2.0 Subsidies and pricing: Perspective and recent developments
Perspective on fertiliser pricing and subsidy
Alternatives for controlling fertiliser subsidies
Improving feedstock competitiveness for urea
Expected policy changes for new investments, expansion
Direct subsidy to farmers
Long term outlook on subsidy
Box
2.0 Subsidies and pricing: Perspective and recent developments
01 Changes in the concession scheme related to phosphatic and
potassic fertilisers
Charts
1.0 Demand
01 Schematic diagram of demand forecasting approach
2.0 Subsidies and pricing: Perspective and recent developments
01 Proposed pipeline network
02 Mode of disbursement through smart cards
Figures
1.0 Demand
01 Fertiliser consumption (in nutrient terms)
02 Comparison of fertiliser intensity & foodgrain yield
03 Urea - Capacity utilisation trends
04 Trends in DAP & complex fertiliser capacity utilisation
Figures
2.0 Subsidies and pricing: Perspective and recent developments
01 Urea price vs Inflation index
02 Subsidy/GDP trend
03 Increasing subsidy and arrears
04 Rising receivable days as subsidy arrears increases
05 Delivered cost of different feedstocks-per tonne of urea
06 Natural gas demand-supply balance
07 Trend in COP & IPP
Tables
1.0 Demand
01 Nutrient-wise demand
02 Product-wise demand
03 Nutrient consumption forecast by different agencies
04 Proposed capacity additions
05 Scenario where only de-bottlenecking is considered
06 Scenario where all expansions & JVs are approved
07 Supply projections for DAP and complex fertilisers
08 Supply projections for SSP
2.0 Subsidies and pricing: Perspective and recent developments
01 Savings in subsidy
02 Increase in other costs as spelt out by the policy
03 Impact of the DAP policy
Sections
1.0 Introduction to fertilisers
2.0 Feedstocks
Introduction
Other feedstocks
3.0 Manufacturing process
Introduction
Nitrogenous fertilisers
4.0 Industry structure
Industry characteristics
Ownership structure
Concentration in the fertiliser industry
5.0 Evolution
Nitrogenous fertilisers
DAP
SSP
Potassic fertilisers
Complex fertilisers
Buffer stock approach fails to decontrol prices
Assessment of policy and their remedial measures by the government
6.0 Government policy
Extent of regulation in the industry
Policy changes during 2002-2007
7.0 Industry performance
Key success factors
8.0 Global scenario
Fertiliser demand
Consumption pattern across countries
World supply and trade
Nitrogen
Ammonia
Natural gas
Phosphorus
Potash
9.0 Organic and bio-fertilisers
Introduction
Charts
3.0 Manufacturing process
01 Manufacture of urea
02 Manufacture of DAP
03 Manufacture of SSP
6.0 Government policy
01 DAP - Groups under the new policy
9.0 Organic and bio-fertilisers
01 Steps in bio-fertiliser production
Figures
2.0 Feedstocks
01 Natural gas - Domestic prices
02 Naphtha - Domestic price and landed cost
03 Naphtha - International prices
04 Feedstocks for phosphatic fertilisers
05 Phosphoric acid - Landed costs
06 Rock phosphate - Landed cost
07 Sulphur - Landed cost
4.0 Industry structure
01 Feedstock-wise share for captive ammonia for nitrogenous capacity
02 Urea demand dependent on rainfall
03 Share of capacity of nitrogenous fertilisers as on Nov 1, 2006
04 Share of capacity of phosphatic fertilisers as on Nov 1, 2006
5.0 Evolution
01 Fertilisers (nutrient) - Production and consumption
02 Urea - Subsidy
6.0 Government policy
01 Fertiliser price trends
7.0 Industry performance
01 Sales volume vs sales revenue
02 Fertiiser industry vs segment PBIT/sales
03 Profitability per tonne of fertiliser
04 RoCE of fertiliser segment Vs Fertiiser industry
05 Debt-servicing indicators
06 Working capital indicators
Figures
8.0 Global scenario
01 World fertiliser consumption
02 Global consumption pattern
03 World consumption- Nutrient wise- 2005
04 Indian consumption- Nutrient wise- 2005
05 World consumption (nutrient-wise) over the years
06 Top five producers of N fertilisers - 2002
07 Top three consumers of N fertilisers - 2003
08 Top five producers of phosphorus fertilisers - 2002
09 Top three consumers of phosphorus fertilisers - 2003
10 Top five producers of potassium fertilisers - 2002
11 Top four consumers of potassium fertilisers - 2003
12 International price - Urea & ammonia
13 International price - DAP & phosphoric acid
Tables
1.0 Introduction to fertilisers
01 Major fertilisers - Nutrient content
02 Fertilisers - Capacity and production trends
2.0 Feedstocks
01 Fertiliser intermediates - Input norms
02 Natural gas - Industry-wise offtake
03 Natural gas - Prices
04 GAIL's pipeline across states
05 Natural Gas proposed pipelines
06 Impact of gas composition on CO2 availability
07 Units that are closest to gas pipeline
08 Units that are far from the nearest gas pipeline / where gas pipeline
infrastructure does not exist
09 Units where gas pipeline infrastructure is being constructed
10 LNG contracts by fertiliser companies
11 Naphtha - Sectoral consumption
12 Naphtha - Demand-supply
3.0 Manufacturing process
01 Technology used for urea
02 Manufacturing process - Synthesis of gas mixture
03 Fertiliser output - Specific consumption norms
Tables
4.0 Industry structure
01 Feedstock-wise share for captive phosphatic capacity
02 Fertilisers - Concentration ratio
03 Urea - Project costs of some plants
5.0 Evolution
01 Changes in farm gate price of urea
6.0 Government policy
01 Different aspects of fertiliser policy
02 Retention price across the three stages of the pricing policy
03 Impact of the DAP policy
04 Complex fertilisers - Group I and Group II companies
05 Complex fertilisers - Material costs-2002-03
7.0 Industry performance
01 PBIT/tonne of production and reasons for change
02 Increasing subsidy arrears
03 Fertilisers - Financial summary
04 Urea - Financial comparison
05 Major urea manufacturers
06 Complex - Financial comparison
07 Major complex fertiliser manufacturers
08 Financial comparisons of various companies
8.0 Global scenario
01 World nitrogen supply and demand balance 2006-2010
02 World phosphoric acid supply and demand balance- 2006-2010
03 World potash supply and demand balance- 2006-2010
9.0 Organic and bio-fertilisers
01 Differences between chemical and organic fertilisers
Sections
1.0 Supply trends
2.0 Demand trends
3.0 Feedstock
4.0 Price and cost
5.0 Global scenario
Tables
1.0 Supply trends
01 Fertilisers - Demand-supply
02 Fertilisers - Capacity and production trends
03 Nitrogenous fertilisers - Feedstock-wise share of capacity
04 Nitrogenous fertilisers - Capacity and production (nutrient)
05 Phosphatic fertilisers nutrient (non-SSP) - Capacity and production
06 Urea - Capacity and production
07 DAP - Capacity and production
08 Complex fertilisers - Production
09 Fertilisers - Production trend
10 Fertiliser - Imports
11 Phosphatic fertilisers - Variety-wise shares of consumption
12 Urea - New capacities under consideration
13 Fertilisers - Overseas projects
14 Major fertilisers - content
2.0 Demand trends
01 Fertilisers - Trends in nutrient consumption
02 Fertilisers - Consumption trend
03 Fertilisers - Relative consumption shares
04 Urea - State-wise consumption
05 Diammonium phosphate - State-wise consumption
06 Others - State-wise consumption 2005-06
07 Fertilisers - Zone-wise consumption ratios
08 Plant nutrients - Consumption per unit of gross cropped area
09 Trends in NPK usage ratios
Tables
3.0 Feedstock
01 Fertilisers - Raw materials input norms
02 Fertiliser intermediates - Input norms
03 Nitrogenous fertilisers - Feedstock-wise share of capacity
04 Phosphatic fertilisers - Feedstock-wise capacity shares
05 Ammonia - Supply trends
06 Ammonia - Producer-wise cost per tonne
07 Phosphoric acid - Producers and capacities
08 Phosphoric acid - Supply trends
09 Phosphoric acid - Producer-wise cost per tonne
10 Rock phosphate: Supply trends
11 Rock phosphate - Producer-wise cost per tonne
12 Sulphur - Supply trends
13 Sulphur - Producer-wise cost per tonne
14 Naphtha - Sectoral consumption
15 Naphtha - Producer-wise cost per tonne
16 Naphtha - Production and consumption trends
17 Natural gas - Reserves, production and utilisation
18 Natural gas - Distribution of reserves
19 Natural gas - Producer-wise cost per tonne
20 Natural gas - Domestic prices
21 Natural gas - Country-wise prices
22 Fertiliser inputs - International price trends
23 Fertiliser inputs - International price trends
4.0 Price and cost
01 Central subsidy on food and fertilisers
02 Fertilisers - Subsidies
03 Fertilisers - Producer prices
04 Fertilisers - Price trends
05 Fertilisers - International prices
06 Urea - Price realisations
07 Urea - International prices
08 DAP - Price realisations
09 DAP - International prices
10 SSP - Price realisations
11 MOP - International prices
12 Other fertilisers - Price realisations
13 Fertilisers - Ocean freight to India
5.0 Global scenario
01 Fertilisers - Global consumption
02 Fertilisers - Top consumers and India's share
03 Fertilisers - World production and consumption
04 Nutrients - World production and consumption growth rates

Abstract

Which key questions does the report answer?
  • What is the projected demand-supply balance for fertilisers in India?
  • What are the implications of the policy on the industry?
  • How has been the players performing?
  • What is the expected feedstock availability in the future?
  • How will be the pricing of feedstock and its implications?
Who will benefit:
  • Investment Managers
  • Venture Capitalists
  • Management Consultants
  • Research Companies
  • Private Equity Managers
  • Market intermediates
  • Banks
  • Fertilizer Industry participants
  • Analyst
  • Other Industry Professionals


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