Indian Automobile Industry - Tractors Outlook

Published by: CRISIL Ltd.

Published: Feb. 1, 2007 - 104 Pages

Table of Contents

Sections

Tractor sales to revert to single-digit growth trend

Executive summary

1.0 Demand review

Sales makes a strong comeback post slump,

to continue strong

Demand to grow by 4-6 per cent up to 2011-12

State-wise review

State-wise outlook

State-wise demand forecast

2.0 Competition to remain moderate

3.0 Financial profile to improve further

Improved profitability to boost credit profile

Charts

Executive summary

01 Projected state-wise growth and size matrix

1.0 Demand review

01 Evaluation of states on different variables

02 Projected state-wise growth and size matrix

Figures

1.0 Demand review

01 Tractor sales continue to grow strong

02 Southern and western states continue to display strong growth

03 Higher hp tractors continue to grow higher than industry rate

04 Comparison of tractor population with arable area

05 Comparison of tractor penetration across countries

06 Comparison of tractor penetration and past growth rates

07 Comparison of tractor penetration and past growth rates excluding

Punjab, Haryana and UP

08 Comparison of irrigation intensity and tractor penetration

09 Comparison of land holding pattern and tractor penetration

10 Comparison of cropping intensity per ha and tractor penetration

11 Comparison of agri-credit per hectare and tractor penetration

12 Comparison of agri-dependents per ha and tractor

population per ha

13 Comparison of agriculture GDP (Rs '000 per ha) and

tractor penetration

Figures

2.0 Competition to remain moderate

01 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for the tractor industry

3.0 Financial profile to improve further

01 Sales s strong momentum

02 Operating margin driven by utilisation level

03 Significant capacity addition unlikely in future

Tables

2.0 Competition to remain moderate

01 Benchmark for Herfindahl index

02 Industry financials

03 Key success factors

3.0 Financial profile to improve further

01 Illustrative financial outlook for the tractor industry

02 Operating margin of tractor industry

03 Debtor days reduced as retail sales improved

04 Improved working capital management reduced interest cost

05 Debt-equity levels improve

06 Net margins of various players

07 Return on capital employed of various players

Sections

1.0 Industry overview

Overview

Segmentation of tractors

2.0 Player profile

Domestic players

International players

3.0 Cost review

Raw material cost

Manpower cost

Selling and marketing cost

Power and fuel cost

Other expenses

Outlook

4.0 Regulations

Introduction

Fiscal regulations

Environmental regulations

Charts

1.0 Industry overview

01 Tractors: Segment-wise break-up on the basis of HP

02 Factors affecting the choice of tractors

3.0 Cost review

01 Estimated outlook for different expense heads

Figures

1.0 Industry overview

01 Tractors: Sales trend

Figures

2.0 Player profile

01 M&M: Total sales and share in total industry sales

02 M&M: Region-wise share in total industry sales

03 M&M: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

04 TAFE: Total sales and share in total industry sales

05 TAFE: Region-wise share in total industry sales

06 TAFE: Segment-wise sales mix 2004-05

07 Escorts: Total sales and share in total industry sales

08 Escorts: Region-wise share in total industry sales

09 Escorts: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

10 PTL: Total sales and share in total industry sales

11 PTL: Region-wise share in total industry sales

12 PTL: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

13 ITL: Total sales and share in total industry sales

14 ITL: Region-wise share in total industry sales

15 ITL: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

16 New Holland: Total sales and share in total industry sales

17 New Holland: Region-wise share in total industry sales

18 New Holland: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

19 John Deere: Total sales and share in total industry sales

20 John Deere: Region-wise share in total industry sales

21 John Deere: Segment-wise sales mix 2005-06

22 Deere & Company: Revenue mix for 2005

23 CNH Global NV: Revenue mix for 2005

24 CNH: Region-wise tractors sales in revenue terms

25 AGCO: Product-wise sales mix for 2005

26 AGCO: Region-wise sales in revenue

27 Same- Deutz-Fahr: Product/trademark wise sales mix for 2005

4.0 Regulation

01 Disbursements grew as tractor sales revived

Tables

1.0 Industry overview

01 Tractors up to 30 hp

02 Tractors > 30 hp and = 40 hp

03 Tractors above 40 hp

04 Segmental growth and proportion in total sales

05 Tractors: Horsepower output for various farm inputs

06 Tractor: Yearly cost of ownership

Tables

2.0 Player profile

01 Mahindra and Mahindra Limited (M&M)

02 Tractors and Farm Equipments Limited

03 Escorts Limited

04 Punjab Tractors Limited

05 International Tractors Limited

06 New Holland Tractors (India) Private Limited

07 John Deere India Private Limited

08 Deere & Company Limited

09 CNH Global NV

10 AGCO Corporation

11 Same-Deutz-Fahr

3.0 Cost review

01 Aggregate cost structure of major tractor players

02 Players' operating profit margins

03 Cost structure of major tractor players

04 Raw material cost as a percentage of net sales

05 Price trend of major raw material prices

06 Labour cost as a percentage of net sales

07 Selling and marketing cost as a percentage of net sales

08 Power and fuel as a percentage to net sales

09 Other overheads as percentage of net sales

4.0 Regulations

01 Tractors: Excise tariffs

02 Tractors: Customs tariffs

03 Emission standards for tractors

Sections

1.0 Markets

2.0 Players

Tables

1.0 Markets

01 Tractors: Region-wise company-wise sales

02 Tractors: Region-wise company-wise market shares

03 Tractors: Segment-wise company-wise sales

04 Tractors: Segment-wise company-wise market shares

05 Tractors: Company-wise segment-wise sales

06 Tractors: Company-wise segment-wise shares

07 Tractors: Player-wise capacity

08 Tractors: Player-wise production

09 Tractors: Player-wise capacity utilisation

2.0 Players

01 Eicher Ltd

02 Eicher Motors Ltd

03 Escorts Ltd

04 Force Motors Ltd

05 HMT Ltd

06 Mahindra & Mahindra

07 Mahindra Gujarat Tractor Ltd

08 Punjab Tractors Ltd

09 Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd

10 VST Tillers Tractors Ltd

Abstract

• What is the expected demand growth for the tractor industry in India?
• Which states drive the growth in domestic sales?
• What is the state of competition in the industry?
• Information on tractor penetration in the Indian market.
• What is the expected profitability/ credit profile for the industry?

• Investment Managers
• Venture Capitalists
• Management Consultants
• Research Companies
• Private Equity Managers
• Market intermediates
• Banks
• Tractor industry participants
• Analyst
• Other Industry Professionals

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