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Lebanon Food and Drink Report 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 29, 2008 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
Lebanon’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Lebanon MGR Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Lebanon Food & Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Lebanon - Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Private Label Retailing in the Middle Eas
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Lebanon Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Lebanon Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown (%)
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Lebanon's Mass Grocery Retail Sector by Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Lebanon Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Food And Drink
Food Regional Overview: The Halal Food Industry in the Middle East
Table: Muslim Populations in Select Countries
Table: Meat Import And Exports Of Selected MEA Countries, 2004 (US$ ‘000)
Drink Regional Overview: Coffee and Doughnut Shops in the Middle East
Table: GDP Per Capita, US$
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Lebanon Sectoral Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Lebanon’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in Lebanon's Food & Drink Sector
Regional Company Case Studies
Drink: Aujan in the Middle East
Table: Aujan Industries - The Figures, 2006
Table: Aujan Shareholders
Table: Aujan Industries Production Facilities In Saudi A
Food: Kraft in the Middle East and Africa
Table: Kraft's Key Brands In The Middle East
Retail: Groupe Casino in the Middle East
Table: Store Network
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Bou Khalil
Spinneys
Drink
Société Moderne Libanaise pour le Commerce (SMLC)
Almaza Beer
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits of Potential Returns
Table: Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

The Lebanese food and drink production industry has begun the long road to recovery, as discussed inBMI’s recently published Lebanon Food & Drink Report for 2008. Following the Israeli bombings inmid-2006 which devastated the country and the industry, a number of companies have started to reportthat production and sales are improving. In 2007 reconstruction work began on the Liban Lait dairyfactory, which had been completely destroyed by the Israeli bombing campaign. The plant had an annualcapacity of some 20mn litres, and produces fresh and UHT milk, as well as a wide range of cheeses andyoghurts, with its products accounting for around 70% of annual dairy consumption in Lebanon. Thecompany said it should take about a year for the plant to regain its full capacity, which is a far morerealistic target compared to the original estimate of two months.

In other dairy news, Danish company Arla has said that sales at its Lebanese joint venture Arla KalassiFoods have got off to a good start in 2007, following a difficult first year. In 2006 the group'sperformance was first held-back by the boycott of Danish goods throughout the Middle East, leading to amajor drop in sales, which was then followed by the Israeli military attacks, which led to severe damagesin infrastructure, and put major limitations on distribution, hampering new product launches and salesgrowth, according to the company. However, followed by a favourable start to 2007, Arla Kalassi is nowplanning to further increase its sales and launch new products, including a low-fat variety of Puckprocessed cheese, which is designed to meet the strong demand in Lebanon for ‘light’ products.Another company that reported recovering results was Chateau Ksara Lebanon’s oldest and largestwinery. In late 2007 the company reported that turnover for 2007 was up 10% to US$27mn, with thecompany exporting 40% of its production. With the difficult domestic situation, exports of Lebanesewines are one of the main avenues of growth, with large Lebanese communities in Europe and the UnitedStates presenting major export opportunities, especially given the country’s long history of viticulture.These company results reflect Lebanon’s gradual recovery and the slow return of consumer confidence,but also show that there is still a long was to go. BMI believes that Lebanon will continue to struggle into2008, as consumer and business confidence remains low, and political uncertainty makes even our 2.0%growth forecast seem optimistic. Nonetheless, the ongoing activity in the ports, as well as someinfrastructural rebuilding (under the auspices of both the government and Hizbullah), will keep GDPgrowth broadly in positive territory, with a return to violence and civil unrest the key risk. The economyhas had another difficult year, and the post-war bounce that many had anticipated has certainly not beenas much in evidence as we had hoped. Ongoing political tension has kept and consumer and investorconfidence low, which means that despite some moves in the right direction, the food and drink industry’srecovery still has a long way to go.


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