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The North American Class 8 Truck Market,Forecasts to 2013

Published by: Automotive World

Published: Mar. 1, 2008 - 38 Pages


Table of Contents


INTRODUCTION

MARKET FORECASTS

Overview

Consumer spending and the credit squeeze

A declining dollar

Oil prices

’Optimistic’ forecast

’Benign’ forecast

’Severe’ forecast

Conclusions

THE OEMS

AB Volvo

Daimler Trucks

Navistar

Paccar

THE ENGINE SUPPLIERS

Caterpillar

Cummins

Detroit Diesel Corporation (DDC)

WINNERS AND LOSERS

EMISSIONS LEGISLATION AND THE SCR VERSUS EGR DEBATE

Background

Technological Overview

Urea infrastructure demands

Operational issues

The European experience

SCR versus EGR - the winners and losers

CONCLUSIONS




LIST OF TABLE/FIGURE

Table 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007-2012

Figure 1: The North American market for Class 8 trucks, 2007

Abstract

The North American market for Class 8 trucks faces major challenges over the next five years. With an economy likely to be sluggish at best, a major change in emissions legislation due in 2010 and the increasing demands of a globalised truck manufacturing industry, any business involved in either the manufacture or the use of trucks will need to be at the top of the game if profitability is to be maintained.

This report endeavours to project market developments over the next five years through to 2013, taking into account the next protocol change due on 1 January 2010. It brings together opinions from and conversations with both sides of the demand and supply equation within the North American truck market.

Three five year forecast sets are presented, based on three different market scenarios - 'benign', 'optimistic' and 'severe'. In addition, the report examines the key legislative and related technical issues that will inevitably shape the market and dissects the strategies that the major truck OEMs and key engine suppliers are implementing to steer them through what could be difficult times.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Oliver Dixon is a journalist and analyst with twenty years experience in the Commercial Vehicle industry. He is a partner in the US/UK-based West End Commercial Vehicle consulting practice and the author of the World Trucks Blog.

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