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Published by: Intelace Research
Published: Mar. 1, 2008 - 44 Pages
Table of Contents
- 1. Macroeconomic overview
- Slide 1: Executive summary
- Slide 2: Baltic countries - population, area and GDP contribution, 2007
- Slide 3: Gross domestic product evolution, 2000-2007; GDP per capita 2007
- Slide 4: Inflation, C/A balance, 2000-2007
- Slide 5: Wages & salaries, 2000-2007; unemployment rates 2007
- Slide 6: Yield curves, 2007
- Slide 7: CEE banking markets: size vs. growth matrix, 2005-2007
- Slide 8: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2007
- Slide 9: Banking assets evolution by country, 2000-2007, penetration benchmarks 2007
- Slide 10: Top 5 banking groups in Baltic countries, combined market share, 2007
- Slide 11: Retail deposits & loans by country comparison; per capita benchmarks, 2007
- 2. Estonia
- Slide 12: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 13: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 14: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 15: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 16: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 17: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 3. Latvia
- Slide 18: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 19: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 20: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 21: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 22: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 23: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 4. Lithuania
- Slide 24: Top 10 banks by assets; market share; ownership structure, 2007
- Slide 25: Banking market concentration - benchmarks; Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
- Slide 26: Customer deposits by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 27: Customer loans by origin evolution, 2003-2007
- Slide 28: Payment infrastructure POS, ATM penetration and evolution, 2000-2007
- Slide 29: Payment cards evolution, penetration, 2000-2007
- 5. Mid-term forecasts
- Slide 30: Estonia - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- Slide 31: Latvia - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- Slide 32: Lithuania - Bank assets & asset/GDP penetration, forecast 2008-2009
- 6. Methodological note
AbstractMacroeconomic situation. The year 2007 was another successful period for all Baltic economies. Falling unemployment, advancing GDP and increasing wealth of individuals made the Baltics the most dynamically developing region in the whole Europe. Unfortunately first warning signs have been also visible in 2007 - Accelerating inflation, falling growth rate of GDP, huge C/A imbalances and interest rates on record highs, all factors threatening further economic growth.
Banking markets. Baltic banking markets were flourishing in 2007. Explosive expansion of lending, including mortgage and very quick deposits growth contributed to jump in total banking assets by ~35% on average, placing Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia among the top 5 most rapidly growing banking markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Encouraged by growing volumes in 2007 Baltic banks kept investing in infrastructure and significantly expanding branch, ATM and POS networks.
Competition. Baltic banking markets are highly concentrated if compared to other CEE markets. Top 5 international groups present in all 3 countries still control almost 75% of combined banking assets. On the other side lack of major administrative entry barriers makes Baltic markets still an interesting opportunity for new entrants including both M&A and “greenfield” approach.
Perspectives. The recent macroeconomic tensions, overheated real estate markets and worsening worldwide economic climate are likely to reduce temporarily the rate of growth in all Baltic countries. Especially Latvia and Estonia may be affected by lower growth rates and possible currency devaluation. Nevertheless Baltic economies are relatively flexible and healthy, so after a temporary problems, they are likely to quickly resume growth. Intelace Research expect that banking assets in Baltic countries will further increase by 23% on average p.a. through 2009.
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