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Italy Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 25, 2008 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Political Swot
Italy Security SWOT
Italy Defence Industry SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: European Defence & Security Ratings
Europe: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Italy Security Risk Ratings
Italy Conflict Risk
Italy Terrorism Risk
Italy Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Timeline: Internal Threats
Table: Italy Insurgent Groups
Organised Crime
External Security Situation
Timeline: External Threats
International Terrorism
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted)
Defence Posture
Defence Reform
International Deployments
Table: Italy Foreign Deployments
Co-ordination and Joint Operations
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Imports
Exports
Defence & Procurement Trends & Developments
Timeline: Defence &Procurement
Italy Defence & Security Report Q1 2008
Table: Italy Defence Key Players
Industry Background
Procurement Background
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Table: Army Enlargements
Government Expenditure on Defence Industry
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Foreca41
Economy To Wind Down In 2008
Table: Italy - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Company Profiles
AgustaWestland
Alenia Aeronautica
Avio
Fincantieri
Finmeccanica
MBDA
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

In Q407 the centre-left government of Romano Prodi continued to struggle with a very narrow majority,surviving a series of closely-fought parliamentary votes of confidence. Defence and security issues duringthe period included action against organised crime, particularly the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta, and atoughening stance against criminal activity by immigrants, especially from the European accessioncountries such as Romania. BMI’s newly released Italy Defence and Security Report Q108 notes that asfar as fundamentals are concerned, Italy has a medium-term stable political outlook with a low risk fromterrorist threat. This must be qualified by a continuing vulnerability to corruption at various levels withinthe political system, and an antagonistic relationship between the judiciary and the politicians. A furthercomplicating factor is the question of bias in the media, with new legislation expected to tackle thisthorny question. There is resistance to reform and a threat of a deadlock, either at national political levelbecause after the next elections there may be a hung parliament, or at interest group/industrial relationslevel, because reform proposals may get blocked. The political system remains somewhat vulnerable toauthoritarianism.

There are currently no major conventional military threats to Italy, but the threat from internationalterrorism is significant. The threat of domestic terrorism has been significantly reduced since thedismantling of the extreme left-wing terrorist group, the Rosa Brigatta, though some fragmented memberscontinue to operate. Italy’s withdrawal of troops from Iraq at the end of 2006 helped to reduce, but ofcourse not eliminate, the threat from international terrorism.

To defend against these threats and ensure the country’s national security, Italy boasts one of the largestarmed forces in Europe, which is, under its budgetary constraints, modernising to adapt to the changingnature of threats and warfare, and focusing on force projection and complete integration at multinationallevels. The defence industry has obtained significant domestic contracts in recent years, but is lookingincreasingly towards pan-European and trans-Atlantic ventures to ensure its growth.


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