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Yemen Defence and Security Report 2007

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 11, 2007 - 51 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Yemen Political Overview SWOT
Yemen Security SWOT
Yemen Defence Industry SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Saleh Still The Man Of Choice
Victorious Saleh
'Better The Devil You Know'
One Step Forward - Two Steps Back
Security Concerns
Succession Questions Persist
External Political Outlook
Uneasy Alliance
Washington Will Tolerate Hamas Talks
Al-Zindani Case Will Be Flashpoint
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
Table: Yemen Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: The Middle East And North Africa
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Yemen Security Risk Ratings
Yemen Conflict Risk
Yemen Terrorism Risk
Yemen Physical Safety Risk
Security Risk Profile
Internal Security Situation
Table: Yemeni Insurgent Groups
Historical Background
Unification And Civil War
Local Islamist Extremism
Zaidi-Muslim Cleric Hussein Badruddin al-Houthi
Clashes With The 'Believing Youth'
Heavy Fighting
Prisoner Release
Domestic Security Concerns Persist
External Security Situation
Regional Security Dynamics
Relations With Saudi Arabia
Pre-War Iraq
Links To Global Terror
A Saudi-Style Attack?
US
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006
Army
Navy
Air Force
International Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Development
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Yemen Defence Sector Size Of Armed Forces
Immediate Opportunities
Economy
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Oil And Water Pose Key Risks
Risks To Core Scenario
Yemen: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology
Conflict Risk Methodology
Terrorism Risk Methodology
Physical Safety Risk Methodology
Overall Risk Rating
State Vulnerability Index


Abstract

Yemen’s President is set to remain in office despite some far-fetched claims that he would not. There
seems to be little to disrupt his rule - his grip on power is as tight as ever. Calls for his departure are
limited - much of the public fears that the country could revert into disorder should President Saleh step
down. International relations remain tepid, if not disinterested, with the most significant interest coming
from the US because of Yemen’s potential role in the so-called ‘war on terror’.


Yemen now enjoys relatively stable relations with its neighbours following a decade of tensions over
several bilateral territorial disputes, primarily with Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh is now supportive of the
presidency in Sana’a. However, some security challenges are presented by internal instability in the postunification
period, including tribal and religious sectarian violence in the northern territories, remnants of
the ongoing armed insurgency of supporters of the Iranian-backed cleric Hussein Badruddin al-Houthi in
the north, and presence of global terrorist groups including al-Qaeda.


The military remains a favoured recipient of government investment, and procurements for all three
branches of the armed forces continue despite overwhelming budget constraints and a lack of trained
personnel to use the equipment. It is likely that Yemen will maintain its military strength and seek to
further modernise specific sectors of its military to respond to new or existing terrorist threats. Yemen is
completely dependent upon foreign procurements, as it enjoys no indigenous defence industry. Yemen’s
total dependence on the procurement of foreign produced arms forces the government to depend on a
brisk arms trade, although not so brisk as some of its neighbours. Historically, Yemen has acquired
Russian and ex-Soviet bloc states for military equipment, but recent signs suggest that Sana’a is seeking
to diversify. The September 2004 lifting of a US arms embargo on Yemen has allowed entry for US firms
into the Yemeni market. However, given budgetary restrictions, procurements have not yet taken place.
Sana’a is stabile for the time being but is under immense financial restraints. Oil production only began in
Yemen in the 1990s and, while average incomes rose as a result, the industry only employs a small
percentage of the workforce and has not succeeded in generating substantial wealth. However, Yemen
maintains a high level of military expenditure relative to GDP. In 2005, Yemen spent approximately 7.5%
of its GDP on the military. This trend is unlikely to change.



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