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Japan Food and Drink Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 4, 2008 - 75 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
Japan’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Japan Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Food and Drink
Japan Food And Drink SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Japan - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Retail
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (store numbers)
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (sales, US$mn)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Japan Mass Grocery Retail Indicators - Sales Value by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales By Format (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format (US$mn)
Table: Sales/Store Number Breakdown by Retail Format Type, 2006
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption, Category Sales & Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: Japan Beverage Sub-Sectors - Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: Japan Agricultural Production by Sub-sector ('000 tonnes)
Table: Japan Organic Agricultural Data
Table: Japan Processed Dairy Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated)
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2007
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in Japan’s Food And Drink Sector, 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Seven & I Holdings SWOT
Lawson Inc SWOT
Food
Ajinomoto SWOT
Drink
Kirin SWOT
Asahi Breweries Ltd SWOT
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits of Potential Returns
Table: Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

BMI’s newly-published Japan Food & Drink Report for Q108 examines how Japan’s food and beveragemarkets remain frustrating for both existing and would-be investors. On the hand this is one of theworld’s largest and highest-spending consumer goods markets, boasting buyers that are highly responsiveto all innovative new product launches. On the other it is an enormously mature market, in which sales incertain key industry sub-sectors have been stagnating for years in spite of sustained domestic andinternational investment. This conflict is highlighted by Japan’s position in BMI’s new Food & DrinkBusiness Environment Ratings - included for the first time in this report. Placing fifth out of 14 analysedmarkets, Japan’s appeal to investors is plain and yet market maturity, the absence of clear-cut growthopportunities and severe food import dependency all serve to make investors think twice.

The strategic activities of a number of Japan’s leading industry players, as discussed here, also serve tomake the point. Leading breweries Asahi Breweries and Kirin Holdings - struggling in a beer marketthat BMI expects to grow by just 9% in volume terms to 2012 - are both increasingly prioritising productdiversification and more importantly international expansion; Kirin frenziedly so. Within the final fewmonths of 2007 Kirin paid US$2.6bn each for local drug maker Kwoya Hakko Kogya, to bolster itspharmaceuticals divisions, and Australian food major National Foods, to improve its geographicdiversity. In pursuit of the latter objective, Kirin also expanded its soft drinks interests in China with theconstruction of a new Shanghai plant, as well as entering into a soft drinks joint venture in Vietnam.However, while many firms look beyond Japan for growth, others are continuing to prioritise seeking newopportunities within the country. Leading cigarette producer Japan Tobacco International (JTI) - keento diversify away from what is now a declining industry - has sought expansion in the domestic foodmarket. In November 2007, in partnership with Nissin Food Products Co, JTI acquired frozen foodmanufacturer Katokichi Co. Yes, frozen food is also a mature market sub-sector, but for both companiesit offers sufficient synergies and development potential to be deemed worthy of a US$1bn acquisition.Seeking a different sort of opportunity, Swiss chocolate giant Barry Callebaut upped its commitment toJapan at the end of 2007, entering into a partnership with local food producer Morinaga. Of course, inthis age of health consciousness, the confectionery industry - which BMI expects to grow by just 7% byvolume to 2012 - is about as stagnant as it comes. However, Callebaut has viewed this as an opportunity,not a risk. Yes, people are consuming less chocolate, but why not then get them to indulge in betterquality, more expensive and perceived healthier variants, on which producers make far greater margins?The following report shows that Japan is, and will remain, a hugely attractive market for food and drinkinvestors, provided they have the capacity to innovate and the willingness to accept sound profits andsteady sales over explosive long-term growth.



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