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Indonesia Food and Drink Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 4, 2008 - 73 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
Indonesia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
Indonesia Food And Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: - Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (store numbers)
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific Markets, 2006 (sales, US$
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format (US$bn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure of Indonesia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Number of Outlets
Table: Structure of Indonesia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (US$mn)
Table: Average Annual Sales by Format (US$mn)
Table: Sales/Store Number Breakdown by Retail Format Type - 2006
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption, Sales & Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors, Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Agriculture
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Food
Agriculture
Table: Indonesia Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (‘000 tonnes, unless stated) - Historical Data
Table: Indonesia Dairy Industry Production, Consumption & Trade Data (‘000 tonnes)
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Indonesia’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2006
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in Indonesia’s Food & Drink Sector, 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Per Capita Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Matahari Putra Prima
Carrefour
Food
Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka
Drink
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA)
Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua)
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

As Indonesia’s vast population continues to feel the trickle down effects of the country’s steady andsustained economic development, a very real opportunity has emerged for consumer goods manufacturersin the country to start, not only boosting their sales, but building up a portfolio of added-value, morepremium products. Of course annual per capita food consumption of just US$330.50 in 2007 and anunemployment rate still stubbornly hovering at around 10% ably demonstrate that the benefits ofeconomic growth are not being felt by all and the sheer size of Indonesia’s poorer rural populationcontinues to drag down average spending levels, as well as restricting potential audience size.Nonetheless, sectors of Indonesia’s food and drinks industry are highly appealing, particularly for thosewith the financial might to offset the need for immediate gratification.

In late 2007, the local subsidiary of Dutch consumer goods giant Unilever acquired the Buavita-brandedenhanced fruit juice range from local aseptic and long-life beverage manufacturer Ultrajaya MilkIndustry Tbk. The acquisition really underlined the trend noted above in addition to some other majorIndonesian beverage industry trends; not least the emphasis consumers now place on the hygienicmanufacturing and packaging of their products which has allowed a relatively small player like Ultrajayato establish such a name for itself. It also highlighted the existing and growing popularity of healthybeverages within Indonesia’s soft drinks industry. For the first time this quarter BMI has incorporated abreakdown of Indonesian soft drink sales by category and amazingly - particularly for a country in whichglobal behemoth The Coca-Cola Company is present - carbonates account for just 17% of sales. Bottledwater and ready-to-drink teas and coffees are the largest product categories, while juices lag way behindaccounting for just 2% of soft drink sales.

Having acquired Buavita, Unilever will now look to improve the popularity of fruit juices in the countryand BMI believes that the company’s immense scale, coupled with local consumption trends, suggest ithas every chance of success. The Dutch firm is looking to expand within a soft drinks market that BMIpredicts will grow by an enormous 108.6% to reach a value of US$7.4bn in 2012. Likewise, it is lookingto further penetrate a country in which consumers have demonstrated a strong preference for healthierbeverages, where alcohol consumption is fairly moderate and where fruit consumption is showingsignificant annual growth. Of course Ultrajaya was also operating within this environment, but with salesof just US$88mn annually, it lacked the distribution, marketing and expansion muscle of UnileverIndonesia, which generated annual sales of US$1,296mn in 2006.The prevalence of this trend does not mean that Indonesian firms cannot compete in high-growth localconsumer goods industries, but with price sensitivity still acute, those with the financial clout to offer lowprices will always fare better regardless of how strong local consumer interest might be.



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