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India Food and Drink Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 4, 2008 - 74 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
India’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Food and Drink
India Food & Drink Industry SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: India - Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia Pacific
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: India MGR Sales by Format (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of India’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number
Table: Structure Of India’s Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales By Format
Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format, 2006 (US$mn)
Table: Sales/Store Number Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2006
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: India Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value/Volume Sales Historical & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: India Agricultural Sub-Sector Production (‘000 tonnes) - Historical
Table: India Agricultural Sub-Sector Output by Value (US$mn)
Table: India Organic Agricultural Data
Table: India Dairy Industry Data, 2006
Food
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in India’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector - 2006
Food and Drink
Table: Key Players in India’s Food & Drink Sector - 2006
Asia Pacific Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division,
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Pantaloon Retail India
RPG Retail
Food
Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL)
Drink
United Breweries Limited (UBL)
Coca-Cola India
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

"India’s fledgling food processing industry continues to fascinate as investors, both local andmultinational, begin ramping up their commitment to the sector in preparation for what is expected to beexplosive growth. However, as BMI examines in its newly-published Q108 India Food & Drink Report,such investment is still only targeting a minority of India’s immense population, and the effects ofeconomic growth remain unfelt by the country’s vast rural majority.

BMI believes that four key features of, or events within, the new report ably sum up this trend. Localdairy major and ice cream specialist Amul Dairy has announced plans to enter India’s US$500mn snackfood market, via the addition of a savoury snack product to its predominantly dairy portfolio. Meanwhile,Italian confectionery company Ferrero SpA has unveiled plans to invest US$35mn in the construction ofa mint manufacturing plant in Maharashtra state, a plant that will later look to target the growing premiumchocolate confectionery sector. Both investments are astute. Amul plans to leverage its existingdistribution strengths to gain a foothold in what is an increasingly competitive sector, while Ferrero wantsto target a market whose small size bellies its potential. To 2012, BMI is forecasting growth of 22% invalue terms in India’s confectionery market, a forecast that could well be dramatically increased shouldmore multinationals come forward in search of opportunities.

Both manufacturers, alongside the more obvious names of PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay and Britannia, arelooking to secure a slice of India’s US$69bn processed food industry, an industry growing so quickly thatthe country’s Ministry of Food Processing and Industry announced in October 2007 that it could nowboast a fairly dynamic export sector - between 2003 and 2007 the value of India’s processed food exportsgrew by around 194% to US$13.9bn, according to ministry figures. However, while this is certainly anindustry sub-sector worth getting excited about - as these latest investments show - it is also worthconsidering the risks associated with investing in such an industry.

To 2012, BMI is forecasting food consumption in dollar terms to increase by just 9.4% in India, a verymodest rate when one considers the pace of the country’s economic expansion. In per capita terms thisgrowth is even more telling, with food consumption expected to rise by just 4.3% to reach US$150.50 in2012. These forecasts highlight the downside to India’s otherwise immense potential. India’s vast ruralmajority are yet to feel the benefits of economic growth and thus do not participate in consumer goodsindustries such as processed foods, snack foods and confectionery. This explains why India secures only amid-table position in our new Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - the country’s size beingnowhere near reflected in the size of its consumer audience. Ultimately India’s sheer size means thisdownside will not affect its capacity to attract investment, but the amount of capital manufacturers will bewilling to invest without the promise of immediate and plentiful rewards remains to be seen.



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