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Australia Food and Drink Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 1, 2008 - 74 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
Business Environment
Regional Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings - Q108
Australia’s Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
SWOT Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Australia Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Food and Drink
Australia Food And Drink SWOT
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Australia - Economic Activity
Retail
Regional Overview: Declining Role Of Independent Retail In Asia Pacific
Table: MGR Versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia
Table: MGR versus Independent/Traditional Retailers In Selected Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Australia MGR Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Australian MGR Market By Estimated Number Of
Table: Structure Of Australian MGR Market, Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet Type (US$mn)
Table: Sales/Store Number Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2006
Food And Drink
Regional Overview: Confectionery in the Asia Pacific region
Table: Leading Global Chocolate Manufacturers
Table: Leading Confectionery Companies in the Asia Pacific Region
Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food consumption indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Table: Australian Drinks Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Food
Drink
Market Overview
Agriculture
Table: Australia Agricultural Sub-Sector Production Data ('000 tonnes)
Table: Australian Agricultural Imports/Exports ('000 tonnes) by Sub-Sector
Table: Australia Organic Agricultural Data
Food
Table: Australian Dairy Industry Data
Drink
Tobacco
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Cigarette Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts
Industry Developments
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players in Australia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Food And Drink
Table: Key Players in Australia's Food & Drink Sector, 2006
Regional Company Case Studies
Food: Unilever In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Food Consumption in Selected Asia Pacific Markets (US$)
Drink: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: San Miguel Corporation Revenue And Earnings Growth By Operating Division, Q107 (%)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Sales By Market (US$mn)
Table: San Miguel Corporation - Key Historical Data
Mass Grocery Retail: Metro In The Asia Pacific Region
Table: Metro Group - Five-Year Financial Results
Company Analysis
Mass Grocery Retail
Aldi
Woolworths
Food
National Foods
Drinks
Foster’s Group
Coca-Cola Amatil
Food & Drink Ratings Appendix
Introduction: Revised Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns
Weighting
Weighting
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Retail Industry
Sources


Abstract

"If one trend can account for Australia’s ranking in BMI’s new Food & Drink Business EnvironmentRatings it is premiumisation. This mature market, with its relatively tiny population and vast areas ofunpopulated and under-developed land, ranks second out of 14 Asia Pacific markets in terms of thepotential it offers to would be food and drink investors. A high spending population, intrigued by, andwilling to part with cash for, innovative products ensures attractive consumption levels and yet theselevels are forecast to grow further still thanks to industry dynamism and the continued pursuit ofpremiumisation. In BMI’s newly-published Q108 Australia Food & Drink Report we examine the natureof the investments driving industry growth and assess the five-year sales outlook for the industry.Two of BMI’s industry forecasts that best demonstrate the extent of premiumisation in the local marketare our food consumption forecast and our confectionery sales forecast. Food consumption is forecast toincrease by 10.4% to US$32.28bn in 2011. This represents considerable growth in a market in which foodconsumption in volume terms is forecast to remain fairly constant. Of course, this growth will in part byfuelled by rising food prices; a global trend caused by severe climatic extremities of the past couple ofyears, by heavy demand from the alternative energy sector and by soaring fuel prices which push up bothproduction and transportation costs. However, this growth also reflects an ever-growing Australiandemand for higher-value, better-quality food and beverage products. Growth in the confectionery sectorperhaps sums this up best. This is a completely non-essential product category which consumers wouldsimply retreat from should rising food prices jeopardise their spending patterns. However, BMI’sconfectionery sales growth forecast of 5.3% to 2011 in volume terms, is completely usurped by ourgrowth forecast of 17% in value terms, reflecting the fact that Australian consumers are still buying nonessentialgoods such as confectionery and are increasingly buying more expensive, added-value variants.This trend is in evidence across multiple sectors of the food and drink industry; soft drinks, alcoholicdrinks, frozen foods, snacks and processed foods among them. Two, reasonably small, yet significantinvestments from the last three months, ably highlight the phenomenon. Coopers Brewery - a mere bitpart player in Australia’s vast beer market - announced plans to invest US$9.7mn in production andwarehousing in order to boost its market share from 3% to 5% by 2011. The company plans to exploitinterest in its premium niche and boutique brands to get one over on the industry giants whose expertiselies in the mass-market sector. Meanwhile US food major Heinz announced a US$8.6mn investment in itsWagga Wagga processing plant, the bulk of which would go towards a new ready meal line. This isnotable not just because of the impact that convenience foods such as ready meals have on the value offood sales in Australia, but because it highlights a rare case of a global major opting to stay in Australiaand exploit the market’s potential from within rather than looking to the low-cost and potentially highergrowth markets of Asia. In summary, the Australia food and beverage market might be mature, but itremains immensely profitable and dynamic.



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