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Israel Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 1, 2008 - 63 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Israel Political SWOT
Israel Security SWOT
Israel Defence Industry SWOT
Israel Economic SWOT
Israel Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Internal Political Outlook
External Political Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Q407 Concerns on Gaza and West Bank
Can Israel Live With Hamas Mini-State?
The Barghouti Question
Times A-Changing: Pressure From Abroad To Increase?
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East & North Africa Defence & Security Ratings
Middle East & North Africa: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: The Middle East and North Africa
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Israel Security Risk Ratings
Israel Conflict Risk
Israel Terrorism Risk
Israel Physical Safety Risk
Security Risk Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Israel Insurgent Groups]
The Palestinian Territories
External Security Situation
Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat
The Syrian Air Raid Mystery
The Israeli-Hizbullah Conflict
Hizbullah Claims Victory: Security Implications
Hizbullah Is Still Strong
But Still A Long-Term Threat
Anti-Israel Hawks Emboldened Elsewhere
The Golan Heights
Iran
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (Including Conscripted) 2007
Current Strength
Historical Strength
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Table: Israeli Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Imports
Exports
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Key Players - Israel Defence Sector
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Israel Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Israel Defence Sector - Government Expenditure
Arms Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Slight Slowdown, But No Major Cause For Concern
Table: Israel - Fiscal Activity
Company Profiles
General Dynamics
Rafael Armament Development Authority
Israel Military Industries
Israel Aircraft Industries
Elbit Systems
Elisra Group
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Israel’s international relations are at an all-time low, except, of course, with a few key influential allies.
The intensification of the conflict with the Palestinians, and perhaps most significantly the devastating
and arguably inappropriate invasion of Lebanon, have all undone months of diplomacy with the Arab
World and the international community at large. Vast parts of the international community condemned
Israel’s actions in Lebanon, actions which arguably failed to achieve Israel’s objectives. Given this
failure, the government, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have been widely criticised by Israel’s
parliament, media and population. The withdrawal from Lebanon has been seen as a climb-down by the
right wing in Israel, having failed to either deal a decisive blow to Hizbullah, the Iran- and Syria-backed
militant Shi’a group that instigated the conflict or secure the release of the two captured Israeli soldiers.
Although domestic and international relations are in trouble, BMI does not see a significant change to the
level of threat to Israel’s security for the foreseeable future. Israel will continue to exist within a highly
volatile region and be at risk of attacks from both internal and external parties. This is not new to Israel. It
has existed under these conditions, and far worse, since its creation and has built up sophisticated and
well-tuned mechanisms for combating such threats. Whilst not numerically great, its armed forces are
well-trained, well-armed and highly experienced. Perhaps more importantly, Israel is supported by the
world’s only superpower, the US, which donates enormous quantities of military aid and equipment to the
Israeli Defence Force (IDF).


Israel’s armed forces are also supported by one of the world’s most advanced defence industries, which
benefits from large amounts of support from the government in the form of contracts. Israeli arms exports
are currently flourishing, with lucrative relationships created with major weapons purchasers such as
India and Turkey. In 2006, transfers totalled some US$4.5bn, ranking Israel in the top five exporters in
the world. Arms imports are also likely to be sustained at a significant level by several long-running
procurement programmes and an increase in foreign military financing (FMF) from the US.
BMI’s newly-released Israel Defence & Security Report concludes that the Israeli defence industry is set
to thrive regardless of the immediate political or security environment in which it operates.



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