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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2008Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 2, 2008 - 42 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe security situation in Iraq began to get better - or more accurately, become less bad - during Q407.There was a clear reduction in levels of violence, although the overall situation as far as the safety of the civilian population and the rule of law was concerned remained arguably one of the bleakest anywhere in the world. At the end of November 2007, US sources said that the total number of attacks across Iraq had fallen by 55% since the ‘surge’ in US troop strength reached its high-water mark of 30,000 extra troops in June. Overall civilian deaths calculated by the Iraqi authorities fell consecutively in each of the three months to November. In October they had totalled 758, compared to 1,971 in January. US military deaths were in their fifth month of a downward trend in October at 38, compared to 126 in May. A variety of factors were credited for the improvement. The ‘surge’ had brought US forces out of their strongholds to patrol more visibly on a local level. Rebel groups had begun to fragment and fight between themselves. In the south the Shi’ite Mahdi Army was continuing to observe a ceasefire. Syria and Iran, two neighbours generally hostile to the US project in Iraq, had nevertheless appeared to collaborate, making it more difficult for foreign jihadists to enter the country and join the ranks of the insurgency. There were some early signs that the Iranians were cutting back weapons supplies to the insurgents. The US effort to recruit mainly Sunni militants into unofficial ‘neighbourhood security’ patrols seemed to be paying off. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki faces significant challenges if he is to take advantage of this window of opportunity and press ahead with political moves to build reconciliation between the country’s different ethnic communities and political factions. Prospects on this front were not terribly encouraging. Extensive disputes over Iraq’s constitution amongst the Shi’a, Sunni and Kurdish population, especially concerning oil-revenue sharing arrangements, remained unsolved. Various draft laws on these issues were deadlocked and seemed unlikely to progress quickly. Despite the improvements, nobody expects to see an end to the violence any time soon. Similarly, not many people expect Iraqi security forces to take full responsibility for the whole country at any time soon, nor for the coalition forces to withdraw from the country on any large scale. Finally, with almost all military equipment entering the country through donations or at least at ‘gifted’ prices, any talk of establishing a functioning defence industry in Iraq will remain premature for the foreseeable future. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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