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UK Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 31, 2008 - 70 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
United Kingdom Political SWOT
United Kingdom Security SWOT
United Kingdom Defence Industry SWOT
United Kingdom Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
European Defence & Security Ratings
Europe: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
UK Security Risk Ratings
UK Conflict Risk
UK Terrorism Risk
UK Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Threats
Table: United Kingdom Insurgent Groups
Narrow Focus?
Background
Timeline: Internal Threats
Domestic Terrorism
Northern Ireland
Table: Proscribed Irish Groups
External Threats
International Terrorism
Table: Proscribed International Groups
Drug Trafficking
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2007
Defence Reform
International Deployments
Table: Principal Deployments of the British Armed Forces:
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Exports
Imports
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: UK Defence Sector: Key Players
Background
Procurement Trends & Developments
Timeline: Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Table: Army Enlargements
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Table: Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Who Is In The Economic Driving Seat?
Table: United Kingdom - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Company Profiles
BAE Systems
GKN
QinetiQ
Rolls Royce
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Q407 turned out to be a tough time for Gordon Brown, Britain’s new Prime Minister who had succeeded
Tony Blair as the head of the Labour Party government in mid-2007. He saw his lead in the opinion polls
steadily erode and eventually reverse as he hesitated over whether to call early general elections (in the
end he decided not to), and as the first signs of a credit crunch and economic recession began to emerge.
Despite what was seen as a strong start on the security front, when the new Prime Minister had to deal
with al-Qaeda-inspired attempted bombings in London and an attack on Glasgow airport, his position in
this area too began to weaken. The government was damaged by the loss of the confidential bank and
personal details of 25mn citizens and other security lapses. Internationally, the government continued
with the slow and delicate process of beginning to extricate the UK from Iraq, handing over control of
Basra, the country’s second largest city, to local authorities. Britain’s military commitment in
Afghanistan remained significant, with troops involved in heavy fighting to recapture territory held by the
Taliban. This looks like remaining a long-term commitment for the British authorities.


There are currently no major conventional military threats to the UK. However, the country’s fear of an
international terrorist attack remains high; before the mid-2007 scare in London and Glasgow, memories
remain fixed on July 7 2005, when four bombs were detonated across London’s transport system by an al-
Qaeda cell. A similar attack was launched two weeks later but the bombs failed to explode, signalling the
organisation’s commitment to continue its campaign on British soil.


The defence industry is benefiting from a range of multinational programmes and major procurement
projects within the UK. Rationalisation and internationalisation of the industry continue, and the
announcement of an agreement over the second tranche of the Eurofighter’s Typhoon is good news for
the British defence industry and employment levels generally. So too is confirmation of the order for two
new 65,000-tonne aircraft carriers, which will be the largest warships ever built in the UK. The MoD also
made a large number of procurements during 2006-2007, reflecting the UK’s continued commitment to
the US-led war on terror. Plans to restructure the defence industry to meet the long-term needs of the
armed forces could lead to the UK becoming less sensitive to where platforms and systems are built.
Involvement in multinational programmes is expected to increase UK arms exports over coming years.
These projects should enable UK firms to gain defence contracts for the supply of components,
subsystems and structures. Regardless of the strength of the UK defence industry, there are perpetual
reports that the British Armed Forces deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan are inadequately equipped - as
such, a significant domestic demand exists should the funds be found.



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