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Russia Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 15, 2008 - 59 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Russia Political Overview SWOT
Russia Security SWOT
Russia Defence Industry SWOT
Russia Business Environment SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Russia Terrorism Risk
Russia Physical Safety Risk
Russia Conflict Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Russia Insurgent Groups
Chechnya
External Security Situation
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripts) 2005
Current Strength
Modernising The Military
Defence Budget
Historical Strength
International Deployments
Table: Russia Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Restructuring The Russian Defence Industry
Industry Trends And Developments
Table: Key Players - Russia Defence Sector (2005)
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Russia Defence Sector - Army Enlargements
Table: Russia Defence Sector - Government Expenditure
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Sukhoi Aviation Corporation
Uralvagonzavod
Irkut
Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RSK MiG)
Kazan Helicopters
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
Rosoboronexport
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Russia’s defence exports rose considerably in 2007 due to a number of high-profile orders secured with
Venezuela, Iran, India, Algeria and most recently Indonesia. In the fourth quarter of 2007, Indonesia
secured a US$1bn loan from a Russian bank to purchase six Sukhoi fighter aircraft. It is probable that
Indonesia will have to request additional finance from overseas banks given that the defence budget is
small compared to its relatively ambitious procurement programme. The budget remains under 1% of
GDP, despite the 13% increase from the 2006 to the 2007 general budget. However, despite the boom in
overseas demand for Russian defence products, there are obstacles to the Russian industry benefiting
from the deals. It is estimated that Russia may require up to 100 patents to fully protect its defence
exports, but there are currently only 15 defence systems that are under patent protection. Consequently,
Russia’s defence industry may be in danger of losing between US$5bn-$6bn per annum due to a failure to
patent military hardware that is regularly exported.


Other defence industry developments in 2007 include the Russian government confirming plans to
establish three shipyard holding companies. The firms have not been selected yet but some have been
mentioned, namely Severnaya Verf and Baltiisky Zavod, which are majority-owned by
Mezhprombank through United Industrial Corporation. The Kalingrad-based Yantar shipyard was
also named as a possible candidate. The selected companies will cover a range of production lines,
including naval ship and submarine production into a streamlined process. In Q307, Sukhoi Aviation and
the Italian Aeronautica signed a US$25mn contract to jointly produce commercial aircraft. In recent
years Sukhoi has managed to corner much of the Asia Pacific market, with significant orders from
Indonesia. Indeed, following the success of Sukhoi-designed jets, the Russian aviation industry has
managed to establish itself as a principal player in the global US$500bn military fighter and transport
plane market. The Sukhoi-Aeronautica contract represents one of the first joint ventures into commercial
aircraft.



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