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Romania Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 15, 2008 - 40 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Security SWOT
Romania Defence Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Romania Regional Security Ratings
Table: Romania State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Romania Terrorism Risk Ratings
Romania Physical Safety Risk Ratings
Romania Conflict Risk Ratings
Security Outlook
Internal Security Situation
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
International Deployment
Market Overview
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Romanian Aerospace Key Players
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Table: Romanian Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
IAR SA Brasov
Aerostar
MFA Mizil
Romaero
Multinational Manufacturers
EADS/Eurocopter Romania
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Romania was made a member of the EU on January 1 2007, and has undergone significant institutional
and social changes to meet EU accession requirements. Romania’s accession is likely to lead to an
increased participation in multilateral defence commitments, especially as it is one of the more geostrategically
important NATO and EU members due to its location on the Black Sea region. Romania’s
location allows for easier projection of NATO defence interests near regional security ‘hot spots’, such as
Iraq and Afghanistan. At present, Romania has some 2,000 troops stationed overseas in the Balkans,
Afghanistan and Iraq.


The Romanian government faces considerable challenges in modernising its armed forces. As a member
of NATO, Romania is expected to meet minimum NATO interoperability standards, which ensure that
exercises and joint operation can take place. However, Romania’s capabilities are ageing rapidly, which
places increased pressure on the Romanian defence budget. The Romanian government examined a range
of funding options to support its six large-scale procurement programmes worth an estimated US$19bn.
However, Romania’s defence expenditure is already reaching its limit, as the government is committed to
allocating 2% of GDP towards the defence budget.


Romania’s defence industry is set to mature considerably. In Q407, the Romanian Authority for State
Asset Recovery re-launched the privatisation programme for Avioane Craiova. The previous
privatisation bids for Avioane Craiova were rejected by the state authority based on the grounds that the
bidding firms were not suitable to run Romania’s top aerospace company. Also in Q407, Eurofighter
announced that it was considering producing 48 Typhoon multi-role combat aircraft in Romania in order
to secure a US$5bn contract. The amount of activity in Q407 is certainly a boost from previous months.
The question is whether the local defence industry can step up to the mark and maintain the growing
international interest in Romania’s defence industry.



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