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Germany Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 31, 2008 - 61 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Political SWOT
Germany Security SWOT
Germany Defence SWOT
Germany Economic SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
European Defence & Security Ratings
Europe: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Overview
International Terrorism
Criminal Activities
Germany Security Risk Ratings
Germany Conflict Risk
Germany Terrorism Risk
Germany Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Timeline: Internal Threats
Domestic Terrorism
External Security Situation
Timeline: External Threats
International Terrorism
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2007
Defence Posture
Defence Reform
Conscription
Constraints On Defence Capabilities
International Deployments
Table: Germany International Deployments
Co-Ordination And Joint Operations
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Exports
Imports
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Key Players - Germany Defence Industry
Latest Developments
Timeline: Defence &Procurement
Background
Procurement Background
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Table: Army Enlargements
Army
Air Force (Luftwaffe)
Navy
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Company Profiles
EADS
Rheinmetall Group
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann
RUAG Aerospace Deutschland
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

In Q407 Germany’s ruling Grand Coalition of the CDU and SPD parties experienced increasing
tensions over a variety of issues, including whether to introduce a minimum wage and how to handle
industrial disputes. With the SPD adopting more left-wing policies, BMI expects tensions with
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU to continue into 2008. On the security front the government
tightened its stance on trade with Iran, which was accused by the US of developing a nuclear
programme for military ends, and there were warnings that Germany could become more of a target
for Al Qaeda extremists because of its continuing role in Afghanistan.


Germany remains a key player in the international community, taking the lead in a number of regional
issues, and retains strong international alliances through its membership of NATO, the EU and the
UN. In addition, Merkel has sought to strengthen ties with the US. Whilst there are no major
conventional military threats to Germany, it faces terrorist threats from radical Islamic groups.
German intelligence services and security forces, whilst well-trained and well-equipped to combat
such terrorist threats, lack the same experience as some of their European counterparts.
The German defence industry has grown over recent years, with an increased number of joint ventures
enabling German-based companies to penetrate large markets more successfully. Recent legislative
developments have provided greater protection of German technological intelligence. The new
ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems began trading earlier in 2007 following the merger of
ThyssenKrupp Werften and Howaldtswerke Deutsche Werft. In April 2007, the MAN AG
industrial group sold its subsidiary MAN Mobile Bridges to Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
European aerospace group EADS has finally seen a conclusion to the intense power struggle between
the French and German leading executives, but issues remain to be resolved over its current recovery
programme.


Exports have increased significantly. Germany is exploring new avenues in Eastern Europe and the
Asia Pacific region following recent successes in Australia, where it has become an established
supplier. A continuing German inflation differential relative to the euro area average could result in
short-term interest rates dampening the regeneration of domestic demand, which has been poor of late.
In April 2005, the budgetary commission of the parliament approved the country’s involvement in the
transatlantic co-operation project the Medium Extended Air Defence System (MEADS).
Berlin remains the capital of one of the most prosperous and stable countries in Western Europe. It
plays an active and significant role in the region and across the globe. Germany boasts the fourth
largest armed forces in the region and one of the best equipped. The international deployment of
German military forces is constrained under strict constitutional rules, but Germany’s deployment in
multilateral peace support operations has been increasing over recent years. Over the last two years,
Germany’s frozen defence budget has placed restrictions on its procurement and R & D projects.
However, the German defence industry continues to thrive through the substantial domestic demand
and the extensive trade in arms as one of the EU’s major exporters.




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