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Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 5, 2007 - 47 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Central Asia Political SWOT
Central Asia Security SWOT
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
Central Asia Political Outlook
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Security Overview
Regional Security Profile
Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups
Central Asia Conflict Risk Ratings
Central Asia Terrorism Risk Ratings
Central Physical Safety Risk Ratings
Islamist Extremism and Transnational Threats
Illegal Arms Trafficking
Internal Instability
Inter-Regional Competition and Co-Operation
Regional Organisations
Land Borders
Natural Resources
Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US
The US Presence
Operation Enduring Freedom
Russia’s And China’s Presence In Central Asia
Defence Industry
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006e
Armed Forces, Kazakhstan
Armed Forces, Uzbekistan
Armed Forces, Tajikistan
Armed Forces, Turkmenistan
Armed Forces, Kyrgyzstan
International Deployments
Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan
Table: Kazakhstan Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Table - Central Asia - Military Expenditure (US$bn)
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Kazakhstan
Table: Kazakhstan - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Company Profiles
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

The outlook for Central Asia in Q108 is relatively stable, despite civil unrest and the presence of terrorist
and extremist groups. Terrorism is a significant security concern for Central Asia due to the wide range of
extremist groups active across the region, such as Jamaat of Central Asian Mujahedins (JCAM), the
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Uighur-led Islamic Party of Eastern Turkestan, Hizb ut-Tahrir al-
Islami, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Kongra-Gel Kurdish organisation, right-wing Turkic group the Boz
Qurd and Al-Qaeda. In Q407 the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit concluded with the
‘Bishkek Declaration’, pledging to increase co-operation with Afghanistan and to create an ‘anti-drug
zone’ around the country. Additionally, the declaration called for increased collaboration on ‘international
information security’ to change the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure and to combat terrorism.
In addition to efforts to curb non-traditional security threats, the Central Asian region has also attempted
to strengthen traditional defence ties. The Kazakhstan Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Emergency
Situations has sponsored a computer-simulated disaster response exercise - Regional Co-operation 2007
(RC07), involving 230 civilian and military personnel from Central Asian states, Afghanistan,
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan and the US. For the exercise, the Kazakhstan Ministry of
Emergency Situations employed its National Crisis Management Centre in Astana. The other
participating states based their national response centres in Bishkek.


The geo-strategic significance of the Central Asia region has led to an increase in defence expenditure in
the region. Both Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan increased their defence budgets, largely to modernise their
forces and support existing military personnel. In 2007, most Central Asian states received increases in
their Foreign Military Financing (FMF) assistance from the US. The US 2008 Fiscal Year budget
proposal offered significant increases in defence funding for the South and Central Asian region, with a
total amount of US$300mn proposed. However, the majority of the FMF funding is earmarked for
Pakistan. Central Asian states set to receive FMF in 2008 include Kyrgyzstan with US$1.5mn (20.3%),
Tajikistan with US$675,000 (up by 36.4%) and Kazakhstan with US$2mn (an increase of 42.3%).
Turkmenistan did not receive any FMF funding for 2008. Overall, the US FMF funding will remain
steady under the FY08 proposal, with the International Military Education and Training programme
(IMET) witnessing a significant funding increase of 15%.


Central Asia’s arms and defence systems do not have a significant presence in the international arms
trade, with most Central Asian states relying on Russia for arms and defence systems. However, a wellestablished
illegal arms trade route runs through the Central Asia region, with the supply and demand for
small arms and light weapons (SALW) emanating from ongoing conflicts in Nepal, Kashmir, Sri Lanka
and Afghanistan. It is estimated that approximately 75mn firearms have found their way to conflicts in
South Asia via the Central Asia region.



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