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Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 5, 2007 - 39 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Security SWOT
Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economic SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
BMI Core Scenario
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Vietnam Regional Security Ratings
Table Vietnam State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: South East Asia Q108
Overview
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Vietnam Physical Safety Risk Rating
Vietnam Terrorism Risk Rating
Vietnam Conflict Risk Rating
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Governance
Ninth Party Congress To Present
The Central Highlands
Religion
Disease
Piracy and Maritime Security
Table: Actual and Attempted Piracy Attacks
Border Security
Illegal Trafficking
External Security Situation
Bilateral Relations
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview And Structure
Industry Trends & Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army And Military Enlargement
Table: Vietnam Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Vietnam is in the process of re-integrating into the international community, and as such much of its
internal political and social structures have undergone change. Vietnam is also forging a role for itself in
regional strategic and security developments, particularly with traditional allies. In Q407, Vietnam hosted
a visit from North Korean officials, keen to learn from Vietnam’s successful doi moi economic
programme. Should the visit to Vietnam be successful, it is likely that the country may play a more
significant strategic role in coaxing North Korea from its reclusive existence in Asia Pacific strategic
relations.


In 2007, the Vietnamese government announced plans to reform the financial dealings of the Vietnam
People’s Army (VPA). The move to reform the private business enterprises of the Vietnamese armed
forces is the result of it strengthening ties with other regional armed forces, which has kick-started the
move towards a professionalised force focusing on conventional armed force duties. The move is part of
the government’s larger policy to consolidate all state-owned enterprises under the control of one
umbrella group, and then to sell the stakes off to private investors to generate a steady revenue for the
state for the next 10-20 years. Vietnam’s defence spending continues to hover above US$3bn, but much
of this money is allocated to wages and quality of life improvements. In 2005 the defence budget was
estimated at US$3.15bn and in 2006 US$3.43bn. The 2007 budget is estimated at US$3.5bn.
Vietnam’s local defence industry is smaller than that of its neighbours, including Thailand and Singapore,
and thus the local defence industry faces stiff regional competition. Encouragingly, in Q207 the
International Traffic in Armed Regulations amendment enabled the US to embark on examining two-way
trade with Vietnam on non-lethal defence systems. In the long run this may provide Vietnam with
additional export opportunities in the sale of small arms and light weapons.



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