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Japan Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 28, 2007 - 47 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Japan Security SWOT
Japan Defence Industry SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Japan Political SWOT
Political Overview
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Japan Regional Security Ratings
Table: Japan State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: South East Asia Q108
Overview
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Japan Terrorism Risk Ratings
Japan Physical Safety Risk Ratings
Japan Conflict Risk Ratings
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: Japan Non State Armed Groups
External Security Situation
Territorial Disputes
External Diplomatic Relations
Relations With North Korea And China
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Normalisation Of Japan’s Defence Forces
Defence Budget
International Deployments
Table: Japan Regional Comparisons
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Table: Japan R&D Trends
Industry Trends & Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Japan Defence Sector
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Army Enlargements
Table: Japan Defence Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Government Defence Expenditure
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Japan - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Company Profiles
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI)
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI)
Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Japan’s internal and external security situation did not change significantly in Q407, with Japan facing a
range of strategic uncertainties. Much of this stems from the country’s evolving security identity and the
strategic role it will play in the Asia Pacific. Japan’s re-evaluation of its security identity has been
prompted by changes in government, as well as external factors. For the last six years it has been led by
Koizumi and Abe, leaders that are known for their strong nationalist tendencies. However this trend may
be reversed in 2008 after Yasuo Fukuda was chosen in Q407 to lead the Japanese government. One of the
first key policy pledges made by Fukuda was to strengthen ties with East Asia, with a focus on North East
Asia. Prime Minister Fukuda also noted that Japan would extend the Maritime Self Defence Force’s
(MSDF) deployment in Afghanistan. These commitments suggest that for now, Japan will be as
committed to strengthening strategic ties in the Asia region, as well as maintaining its commitment to the
West.


In the first quarter of 2008 the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) requested a 0.74% increase for the
2008 budget, at US$41.427bn. If the budget is approved, the defence budget will reach 1% of the
country’s GDP and approximately 5.6% of the estimated total 2008 budget. This is a distinct shift away
from previous budgets which have hovered around the 0.8% of GDP mark. Moreover, expenditure
patterns have not changed dramatically, with procurement only receiving some 20% of the total defence
budget and personnel costs accounting for up to 45% of the defence budget.


The Japanese defence industry, officially part of the heavy industries, is dominated by giants such as
Mitsubishi. The industry’s unique structure is underpinned by Article 9 in its Constitution, which
prohibits Japan from having a fully developed armed force and defence industry However, there are likely
to be substantial changes in the coming quarters as indicated by the shifts in Japan’s diplomatic position.
The government is moving forward with plans to produce the PAC-3s missiles indigenously at the cost of
JPY10bn, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) initially awarded the contract in 2005 to produce the
PAC-3s missiles. In the fourth quarter of 2006, BMI’s arms exports forecast for Japan remained
unchanged, with Japan importing more arms.




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