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Indonesia Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 31, 2007 - 46 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Security SWOT
Indonesia Defence Industry SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Core Political Scenario
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: South East Asia Q108
Overview
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Indonesia Terrorism Risk
Indonesia Conflict Risk
Indonesia Physical Safety Risk
Internal Security Situation
Aceh
Maluku
East Timor
Sulawesi
Papua
Terrorism
Table: Indonesia Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Piracy
United States-Indonesia Relations
China-Indonesia Relations
Indonesia-Australia Relations
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Defence Budget
Army
Navy
Air Force
Table: Regional Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends & Developments
Table: Key Players - Indonesia Defence Sector
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Table: Indonesia Historical Data and Forecasts
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
PT Dirgantara Indonesia
PT Pindad
PT PAL
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Indonesia’s chief internal security concerns stem from the pressures of attempting to forge a nation-state
from a range of archipelagic islands consisting of distinct ethnic groups. Indonesia faces several security
concerns from insurgencies including breakaway provinces, maritime and terrorist security threats.
Indonesia’s internal security situation is unlikely to improve in the immediate future. The recent low
profile of Jemaah Islamiah (JI) in Indonesia has led the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, to claim that the government has successfully cracked down on the organisation. Indeed, the
past two years have been free of JI attacks, whether against Indonesians or Indonesia-based overseas
interests. However, the victory may be too early to call, as JI are active regionally. In Q407, a number of
large-scale armed clashes in the Southern Philippines were linked to the Islamic extremist Abu Sayyaf
Group (ASG). ASG reportedly have strong ties to JI, and allegedly provided a safe haven for key leaders
of JI. One of the Bali bombers, Dulmatin, was reported to have been injured in a Q407 clash in
Maimbung, Jolo Island.


Indonesia’s armed forces have a long history of being under-funded, which has compromised the
country’s ability to purchase affordable defence systems. Further restrictions applied after the US placed
Indonesia under arms procurement sanctions following the 1991 violence in East Timor. Indonesia’s
defence spending traditionally comes in at 1% of GDP, and in 2006 was US$2.8bn. However, the 2007
defence budget is to concentrate on acquiring superior military transport over a 15-year plan.
Indonesia’s arms trade composition remained unchanged in the second quarter of 2007. The indigenous
defence industry is unable to support the scale of the upgrade programme. Indonesia’s defence industry is
relatively small, and can only meet 5% of the armament needs of the Indonesian military. However, this
has not stopped the industry from enhancing its profile regionally and internationally. ‘Indo Defence
2006’ was held in November 2006, showcasing products from international and Indonesian defence firms.
Companies that showcased defence items included Pindad, Air Launch, Sukhoi PAL, Lurssen
Rosoboronexport, Dirgantana Indonesia, Daewoo, Ferrostal and Kazan Helicopter.


In Q407, Indonesia and Russia finalised a significant arms deal. The Russian government agreed to a
US$1.1bn loan to assist in Indonesia’s arms procurement. It is reported that Indonesia is interested in
acquiring kilo-class submarines, as well as boosting its ageing Sukhoi fleet.




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