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Australia Defence and Security Report Q1 2008

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 11, 2007 - 44 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Security SWOT
Australia Defence SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
BMI Core Scenario
Domestic Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Regional Security Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: South East Asia Q108
Overview
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
Australia Security Risk Ratings
Australia Terrorism Risk
Australia Conflict Risk
Australia Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Defence Budget
Table: Regional Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Australia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Australia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts (cont)
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts
Company Profiles
Thales Australia (formerly ADI Ltd)
Tenix Defence
Austal
BAE Systems Australia
Raytheon Australia
Boeing Australia
BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

Australia’s internal security situation remained stable halfway through 2007. The 2007-08 budget capped
off a 13-month period that saw the government promise more than US$41bn worth of new defence
initiatives over 11 years; around US$16bn in the last budget, US$14bn for this budget, and more than
US$11bn in between. As a result, next financial year the defence budget will reach US$22bn. This is an
increase of US$2.1bn over the funding for this year, and represents 2% of GDP. Key initiatives in the
2007-08 budget include US$6.1bn over 10 years for 24 Super Hornet F/A-18F aircraft, US$1.8bn for
additional logistics and US$1.3bn for C-17 operating costs. Another US$1.3bn in operational
supplementation was provided, which will bring the accumulated cost of the Australian Defence Force
(ADF)’s commitment to Iraq to US$2bn and Afghanistan to US$1.7bn.


Australia’s defence industry has experienced strong growth in recent years, mainly due to the ADF
undertaking an ambitious development and upgrade programme. In the fourth quarter of 2006, Australia’s
defence industry continued to grow, with the most significant development being the takeover of ADI,
Australia’s largest defence firm, by Thales, whose share of ADI will increase from 50% to 100%. In
Q407 defence company Tenix will likely be sold by its current family ownership, following a review of
its strategic direction. Tenix is owned solely by the Salteri family and is Australia's second largest
defence corporation, behind Thales Australia, formerly Australian Defence Industries. The business
should sell for about US$1bn, according to industry analysts. The company's annual revenue is about
US$1.2bn.


Australia’s arms trade patterns remained largely unchanged and the country still imports a range of bigticket
items, such as the purchase of the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) from
Lockheed Martin’s Alabama plant. The current production rate is 15-17 missiles per month, with 475 of
the 779 missiles having been delivered. The decision to purchase the JASSMs was due to the reduction of
unit cost if the missiles were purchased from the US.



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