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UAE Defence and Security Report Q3 2007

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 27, 2007 - 50 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
United Arab Emirates Political SWOT
United Arab Emirates Security SWOT
United Arab Emirates Defence Industry SWOT
United Arab Emirates Economic SWOT
United Arab Emirates Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Overview
Labour Market Problems Threaten Government-Business Relations
External Political Outlook
Iranian Tensions and the GCC
Fearing the Rise of Tehran
The Economic Damage - Diversification to Suffer
Too Close For Comfort For The White House…
US Alliance to Remain Firm…
Regional Issues to Dominate
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa Regional Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: The Middle East and North Africa
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
UAE Conflict Risk
UAE Terrorism Risk
UAE Physical Safety Risk
Security Risk Overview
Internal Security Situation
Historical Background
Emirate Rivalry
External Security Situation
Security Risks
Regional Security
Iran
Global Engagement
Insurgency and Terrorism
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2007
Current Strength
Army
Navy
Air Force
International Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Imports
Exports
Industry Trends & Developments
Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: UAE Defence Sector - Army Enlargements Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: UAE Defence Sector - Defence Expenditure Historical Data & Forecasts
Immediate Opportunities
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB)
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is arguably the most politically stable country in the Arab world. It is
currently edging towards reforms, largely at the behest of the US’ limited agenda to introduce popular
participation in the Gulf States, but these will be symbolic and will not cause any fundamental shifts in
the power dynamics.


The UAE has few explicit security threats. However, its inauspicious geo-strategic location dictates a
permanent state of insecurity. Minor territorial disputes with Iran continue to put a low-level security
pressure on the Emirates, while instability in nearby Iraq and political uncertainties in the wider region
provide reason for caution. The security threats to the UAE in terms of insurgency and terrorism are thus
far not significant.


The UAE’s 10-year modernisation programme has created a military with the potential to challenge Iran
and Saudi Arabia for regional dominance. The confluence of strategic imperative and immediate wealth
contributed to the UAE’s establishment as a procurer, not a producer, of arms. The UAE lacks an
established local defence industry and its forces are almost entirely reliant upon foreign procurement,
training and expertise. The Offsets Group Programme mandates that foreign contractors establish joint
ventures with local firms, providing the opportunities for technology transfers and the establishment of
local maintenance and manufacturing facilities. A number of indigenous firms are however making
limited progress in strengthening their position within the industry. Strong support for advanced military
procurements and upgrades drive the industry for the medium term. Coming to the end of a 10-year
US$15bn defence modernisation programme, the UAE is the most rapidly developing military power in
the Gulf region. The UAE engages in a brisk arms trade with a variety of international suppliers. Regional
security imperatives mean that the UAE is consistently looking to maintain its credible deterrent force by
importing the latest technologies. To dilute the potential political effect of heavy reliance of foreign arms
producers, the UAE consciously aims to diversify its suppliers among the four main global suppliers of
arms: the US, France, the UK and Russia. The UAE does not export arms to any significant degree.
It seems the Emirates have little to worry about for the time being - a stable political system, a strong
economy, limited security threats, and a military with technology that can, in some aspects, rival the best
in the world.



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