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South Africa Defence and Security Report Q3 2007

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 22, 2007 - 56 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Political SWOT
South Africa Security SWOT
South Africa Defence Industry SWOT
South Africa Economic SWOT
South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Political Overview
Domestic Political Outlook
A No Score Draw
A Demographic Perspective On Politics
Prudent Fiscal Policy to Remain
The Rising Challenge From the East
China's Africa Strategy
The Future Implications
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Risk Ratings
Table: Regional Risk Ratings
Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: The Middle East and North Africa
Inter-State Conflicts
Internal Conflicts
South Africa Security Risk Ratings
South Africa Conflict Risk
South Africa Terrorism Risk
South Africa Physical Safety Risk
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Table: South Africa Insurgent Groups
Organised Crime
HIV/AIDS
Township Unrest
External Security Situation
African Union
Border Security
Military Structure & Defence Industry
Armed Forces
Current Strength
Historical Strength
New Role For The SANDF
Acquisitions
HIV/AIDS
‘Army Vision 2020’
International Deployments
Table: South Africa Foreign Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Imports
Exports
Industry Trends & Developments
Procurement Trends & Developments
Air Force
Navy
Army
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: South Africa Defence Sector - Armed Forces
Table: South Africa Defence Sector - Government Expenditure
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: GDP, Output & Population
Company Profiles
BAE Systems Land Systems South Africa
Denel
ADS (African Defence Systems)
Grintek Defence & Technologies
Reutech
Aerosud
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources


Abstract

South Africa faces internal and external security threats. Internally, it has a well-established organised
crime and drug trafficking network, a vast wealth disparity and large scale HIV infection within its
population, not to mention ongoing racial tensions fuelling security threats such as the right-wing
Afrikaner group, Die Boeremag. Its security concerns also extend beyond its borders. As the hegemonic
power in the continent, and particularly in the Southern Great Lakes region, it has a heavy involvement in
the continent’s trouble spots in terms of security forces/peacekeeping deployments. While the numerous
security threats in the region have the potential to destabilise South Africa on a variety of levels, the
potential for its neighbours - particularly Zimbabwe - to destabilise it economically and politically is
especially strong.


The defence industry witnessed major upheaval when the lifting of the arms embargoes on South Africa
led to competition with foreign companies. With the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) no
longer a captive customer of the sector, companies have had to shed large sections of their workforce,
leading to dwindling numbers. Recent procurement packages may be the first step in reversing this trend.
The future of the South African defence industry depends on its successful break into the international
market. Joint ventures will aid the country in gaining a technological lead in key areas. Currently, the
biggest single long-term problem within the defence industry is the lack of research and development
funding and policy. Several defence industrial participation (DIP) contracts have been signed with South
African firms, which will assist in areas of defence electronics.


Arms exports are proving a more vital area of sales for South African defence companies, and should be
the main catalyst for any growth in the industry. Encouraging figures from key defence companies seem
to suggest a growing export market. Meanwhile, arms imports should increase substantially with the
delivery of the major weapons platforms recently ordered by the government. The recent normalisation of
relations between the US and South Africa offers hope for better trade.


BMI concludes that the state’s political, economic and security structures remain relatively strong. The
country is plagued with very high crime rates and high HIV/AIDS infection rates, but neither of these
poses a risk its overall stability. Recent restructuring and moves to modernise the South African armed
forces have created the best-equipped and most advanced military on the African Continent. The defence
industry is growing and making indents into international markets.



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