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Poland Defence and Security Report Q3 2007Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 16, 2007 - 48 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractWe are hopeful that a snap election, to be held on October 21 will be a positive move for the country andthe early election, almost two years ahead of schedule, will end long-running political turbulence. While we believe that a coalition government between the Civic Platform (PO) and the Law and Justice (PiS) is the most likely scenario, the weak polling data of some of the smaller parties could mean that the PO and the PiS could even achieve a simple majority, making it possible to form an administration with just one other coalition partner. From a security standpoint, there is little risk that Poland will face armed conflict. Instead, the greater threat remains, as in so much of Eastern Europe, from organised crime. The country is also vulnerable to the wider threat from international terrorism in its position as both frontier state of the enlarged EU and a vocal supporter of the US’ ‘war on terror’ and its consequent role in Iraq. This has led to substantial increases in spending on internal security. The country’s large armed forces have fed into the recent restructuring of Poland’s defence industry and this has attracted attention from international defence companies. Their involvement, however, has been delayed, due to the cautious nature of the privatisation programme. Nevertheless, there is a growing feeling of optimism that the industry will see further co-operation and injections of foreign direct investment (FDI) as the country’s five-year plan to modernise the air force, navy and army, including substantial procurement programme proceeds. Real GDP growth is expected to come in at 6.6% for 2007 after a year of strong growth in 2006. There remains growing consumer demand, strong private investment and robust export growth, although this may peak in 2007, with growth falling back to some 5.5% in 2008, as the country sees further monetary tightening and an expected deceleration in eurozone economic activity. Despite this growth, there will still be strains on the government purse from the twin effects of defence-equipment procurement and the reduction of the number of conscripts forces, with the attendant costs of retirement plans and pensions. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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