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Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q3 2007Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 23, 2007 - 53 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractPakistan’s overall security situation deteriorated during Q307. Opposition to President Pervez Musharrafgrew as a result of his highly unpopular decision to suspend Pakistan’s Chief Justice, who was subsequently reinstated by the Supreme Court. In mid-August, the Information Minister announced that the government was contemplating the imposition of a State of Emergency - which substantially reduced the probability of free and fair elections taking place on time. As we discuss, BMI believes that the imposition of a State of Emergency would be a dangerous outcome, which could lead to public violence and dramatic action by the military to restore order. In late August, official sources confirmed that President Musharraf would step down as head of the army at the end of 2007, as ordered by the Supreme Court. It remains to be seen what will be the long-term impact of these domestic political developments on Pakistan’s relationship with the US. Pakistan’s government (or, more precisely, President Musharraf and some of the government) have been key allies of the US in the war against terrorism that it has been prosecuting since the events of 11 September 2001. The US government censured President Musharraf for the dismissal of the Chief Justice and for his authoritarian approach to quelling the unrest that followed. This has, in turn, raised the possibility of closer ties between Pakistan and China (who have a joint interest in containing India). China, like the US, is a significant supplier of military material - and at discount prices - to Pakistan. However, the US has little leverage over the Pakistan government. The US sees Pakistan’s large and well-organised armed forces as being the only effective institution in the country - and essential to keep on side if Taliban and al-Qaeda are to be kept in check. Meanwhile, the war on terror is going badly. The tempo of conflict within Pakistan itself intensified during the middle of 2007. The most high profile - but far from only - incident was the army’s attack on and capture of the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) which had been occupied by Islamic militants. The 10- month old peace agreement between the government and tribesmen in North Waziristan broke down, and there was an upsurge in anti-government violence. All this overshadowed the ongoing peace talks between India and Pakistan in relation to Kashmir, although India’s Defence Secretary recommended a 20,000 man reduction in Indian forces there. Worryingly, violence intensified in Afghanistan, where an alleged Taliban spokesman indicated that there would be further attacks on Kabul. Elsewhere, three other trends are evident. The first is that Pakistan’s armed forces are maintaining good relations with NATO. In August, Pakistan took command of the multi-national naval task force (comprised mainly of ships and personnel from NATO countries) which forms the maritime element of the US’ Operation Enduring Freedom and almost immediately undertook a major exercise. Pakistan’s special forces have been training in counter-terrorist warfare with their counterparts from Turkey, an important NATO member. The second trend is that spending on new equipment - and the general modernisation of the armed forces - remains heavy. Indications are that defence spending will increase by at least 10% in the current financial year - or by slightly more than overall GDP. Pakistan is looking to buy JF-17 and F-16 aircraft, for which separate allocations - outside the 2007-2008 budget - may be made. Recent reports also suggest that the armed forces are considering the purchase of helicopter gunships from Russia. On August 25 2007, Pakistan successfully tested a Hatf VIII Raad air-launched cruise missile. This missile is said to be able to carry all kinds of warheads over a range of 350 km. The third trend is that Pakistan’s substantial indigenous defence industry continues to develop export markets, of which it already has over 30. A small arms deal with Vietnam - in the face of opposition from India, with whom Vietnam has also been negotiating to purchase material, was a feature in August. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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