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New Video Dynamics, How Hollywood Handles the Internet

Published by: Emerging Media Dynamics, Inc.

Published: Dec. 1, 2007 - 50 Pages


Table of Contents


Introduction and Executive Summary

I. Hollywood’s Attempts to Control Unauthorized Content Distribution

A. Summary of Relevant Law and Legislative Proposals

1. The Fair Use Doctrine

2. The Digital Millennium Copyright Act

3. Pro-IP Act of 2007

4. College Opportunity and Affordability Act of 2007

5. The Napster, Grokster Decisions

6. Viacom’s Lawsuit Against Google, YouTube

B. Content Identification Technologies

1. YouTube’s I.D. Content Tool

2. Principles for User Generated Content Services

II. Overviews of Selected Online Outlets for the Distribution of TV Shows and Films

A. Hulu

B. Netflix

C. Amazon Unbox

D. iTunes

E. Wal-Mart

III. Overview of Top Hollywood Studios

A. NBC-Universal

B. The Walt Disney Company

C. Time Warner

D. News Corp.

E. Sony Corp.

F. Viacom

IV. Writer’s Guild Strike: Studios Balk over New Media Payments

IV. Internet Video Business Models

A. Ad-Supported Video

B. Premium or Pay-for-Play

V. What’s at Stake: Revenue Forecasts for Ad-Supported, Downloadable Video

A. Advertising Revenue Forecasts for Internet Video

B. Sale of Downloadable Movies

C. Sale of Downloadable TV Shows

D. The Total Take: Video Revenues from All Forms of Internet Distribution

About Emerging Media Dynamics

List of Tables

Table 1 - Programs and Movies Available on Hulu

Table 2 - Netflix Online Content Suppliers

Table 3 - Amazon Unbox Content Suppliers

Table 4 - iTunes Content Suppliers

Table 5 - Wal-Mart Video Content Suppliers

Table 6 - TV “Channels” Offered on AOL Video

Table 7 - Internet Download-to-Own Options, Pricing by Provider

Table 8 - Internet Video Ad Revenue Projections, 2007 to 2013

Table 9 - Internet-Based Movie Sales and Revenue Projections, 2006 to 2013

Table 10 - Online Sales of TV Programs, Unit and Revenue Projections, 2006 to 2013

Table 11 - Total Internet Video Revenue from All Forms of Distribution, 2007 to 2013

List of Figures

Figure 1 - Total Internet Video Revenue, 2007 to 2013

Figure 2 - Internet Video Revenues, By Type, 2007 to 2013

Figure 3 - NBC Universal Annual Revenue and Profits, 2002-2006

Figure 4 - Disney Media Networks Revenue and Operating Income, Q1 04 to Q4 07

Figure 5 - Disney Studio Entertainment Revenue, Q1 04 to Q4 07

Figure 6 - Time Warner Networks Revenue and Cash Flow, Q1 03 to Q3 07

Figure 7 - Time Warner Filmed Entertainment Revenue and Cash Flow, Q1 03 to Q3 07

Figure 8 - Time Warner DVD Sales, Q1 03 to Q3 07

Figure 9 - Total AOL Page Views, Q2 06 to Q3 07

Figure 10 - News Corp. Filmed Entertainment Revenue, Operating Income, Q3 04 to Q1 08

Figure 11 - News Corp. Television Revenues, Operating Income, Q3 04 to Q1 08

Figure 12 - News Corp. Cable Network Programming Revenues, Operating Income,

Figure 13 - Sony Pictures Revenue and Net Income, Q1 03 to Q2 07

Figure 14 - Viacom Entertainment Revenues and Operating Income, Q4 04 to Q3 07

Figure 15 - Viacom Entertainment Revenues and Operating Income, Q4 04 to Q3 07

Figure 16 - Viacom Cable Networks Revenue and Operating Income, Q4 04 to Q3 07

List of Images

Image 1 - Hulu Screenshot

Image 2 - Screenshot of Hulu Media Player, Features

Abstract

More than the advent of television or cable TV or even the VCR, the Internet is forcing Hollywood to rapidly adapt to technological change or risk obsolescence. The Internet is far more unpredictable, and more quickly evolving, than these earlier disruptions. How Hollywood handles the Internet is therefore a matter of survival for the handful of companies, namely the top Hollywood studios, that current dominate the production and distribution of TV programming and theatrical films.

Emerging Media Dynamics is pleased to announce that the latest report in our New Video Dynamics series, How Hollywood Handles the Internet, is now available. This exclusive in-depth analysis spells out the shifting dynamics that Hollywood and other traditional TV program and film producers face as they adapt to the challenges, changes and opportunities posed by the Internet.

How Hollywood Handles the Internet delivers an easy-to-understand guide to the still-experimental efforts by top program and movie providers to develop new revenue streams from Internet-based outlets. As the report documents, Hollywood is maneuvering two parallel tracks as it navigates the Internet.

The studios are seeking to slow down the potential risks to revenues through legal battles to enforce what they contend are their existing intellectual property rights, through legislation aimed at strengthening intellectual property rights and through the development of content identification technologies aimed at detecting unauthorized use of copyrighted content. At the same time, Hollywood is also attempting to exploit the opportunities the Internet presents.

Profiled in the report are the Internet video activities of the top Hollywood studios, including:
  • NBC-Universal
  • The Walt Disney Company
  • Time Warner
  • News Corp.
  • Sony Corp.
  • Viacom
The report also lays out the revenue potential of the overall Internet video market, offering detailed projections on the prospects for advertising embedded in streamed video content as well as the better established sale of pay-per-download movies and TV shows. Although any estimates for this still nascent market must be considered preliminary, our extensive model suggests that total Internet video from all forms of distribution could grow more than five-fold by 2013, climbing from around $190 million in 2007 to $1.2 billion in 2013.

But, as the report also notes, $1.2 billion is still very, very tiny in comparison to Hollywood’s revenues from traditional sources. For example, one studio alone, Time Warner, sells about $1 billion in DVDs each quarter.

The wild card for Hollywood, as the current impasse between Hollywood producers and writers attests, is advertising embedded in streamed video content. According to our analysis, there could be at least 1,502% growth in ad sales for Internet video over the next five years, with annual ad revenue for streamed content expected to climb from around only $46.3 million in 2007 to $741.8 million in 2013.

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