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Flash Packaging: What Phone Makers Want, When & Why?

Published by: Objective Analysis

Published: Jan. 1, 2008 - 42 Pages


Table of Contents


Contentsiii

Executive Summary

Cell Handset Needs

Why Stack Memories?

How Architecture Determines Memory Mix

How Features Determine Memory Configuration

Camera Resolution

Operating System Considerations

Music Player Feature

Memory Expandability - Flash Cards

Pricing’s Play in These Decisions

Role of Minimum NAND Density

Which Stacks are Most Desired?

Multi-Chip Packages (MCP)

Package on Package (POP)

Package in Package (PIP)

Other

Through-Silicon Vias

Folded Substrates

System in Package (SIP)

MCP Markets by Handset Type

Full-Feature Handsets

Music Handsets

High-Resolution Camera Handsets

VGA Camera Handsets

Basic Handsets

Combined Stacked Chip Forecast

Total MCP Forecast

Methodology

Figures

Tables

Author

Jim Handy




LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Example of the Chips within an MCP

Figure 2. Average Memory Configuration by Handset Type

Figure 3. Magnified View of Handset Memory Configuration

Figure 4. XiP and SnD System Models

Figure 5. NAND Quarterly Average Price per Gigabyte History

Figure 6. 2007 NAND Weekly Average Price per Gigabyte

Figure 7. Typical NAND Process Roadmap

Figure 8. Unit Shipments of MCP by Type for all Handsets




LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. NAND Manufacturing Cost as a Function of Density and Process

Table 2. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for Full-Featured Handsets

Table 3. NAND/RAM MCP Forecast for Full-Featured Handsets

Table 4. NAND/NAND MCP Forecast for Full-Featured Handsets

Table 5. NOR/NAND MCP Forecast for Full-Featured Handsets

Table 6. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for Music Handsets

Table 7. NAND/RAM MCP Forecast for Music Handsets

Table 8. NAND/NAND MCP Forecast for Music Handsets

Table 9. NOR/NAND MCP Forecast for Music Handsets

Table 10. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for High-Resolution Camera Handsets

Table 11. NAND/RAM MCP Forecast for High-Resolution Camera Handsets

Table 12. NAND/NAND MCP Forecast for High-Resolution Camera Handsets

Table 13. NOR/NAND MCP Forecast for High-Resolution Camera Handsets

Table 14. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for VGA Camera Handsets

Table 15. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for Basic Handsets

Table 16. NOR/RAM MCP Forecast for All Handsets

Table 17. NAND/RAM MCP Forecast for All Handsets

Table 18. NAND/NAND MCP Forecast for All Handsets

Table 19. NOR/NAND MCP Forecast for All Handsets

Table 20. MCP Forecast for All MCP Types

Abstract

Cell phone handsets are the most important market for flash multichip packages (MCPs). Although there is widespread sentiment that the NOR/RAM MCP in current handsets will soon give way to NAND/NOR MCPs, NAND/NOR/RAM MCPs, or NAND/RAM MCPs, Objective Analysis has found compelling evidence that this is not the case. This report investigates how and why the MCP market behaves as it does, and is designed to help chip makers and chip purchasers understand the market and plan their strategic moves. The report presents data derived from careful interviews with participants in all sides of the cell phone market, through which Objective Analysis explores five levels of cell phone markets, analyzes their needs, and predicts which kinds of stacks are most likely to find widespread use over the next five years.

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