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Flashpoint - Next-Generation Biofuels: Steps Toward Commercial Viability

Published by: Kline & Company, Inc.

Published: Dec. 1, 2007


Table of Contents


Introduction

Table 1: Comparison of first- and next-generation biofuels

Table 2: Overview of next-generation biofuels and production processes

Kline Insights

Factors Influencing the Business

Oil prices

Feedstock

Production costs

Figure 1: Indicative biofuel costs compared with gasoline and diesel prices, 2005 and 2030

Table 3: Overview of estimated investment and production costs

Production technology

Infrastructure: production, distribution, logistics

Vehicle availability

Well-to-wheel efficiency

Environmental impact

High initial costs

High risk of capital investment

Biofuel price for end users

Marketing and consumer perceptions

Regulatory issues and subsidies

Industry standards and norms

Keys to Success

Partnerships

Managing uncertainties

Cost optimization

Financing for production facilities

Regulatory support

Ensure quality through standardization

Marketing: users' willingness and acceptance

Regulatory Issues

European Union

Economic/fiscal measures

Table 4: Tax rebates and respective excise tax duties in Germany

Table 5: Level of tax reduction on biodiesel and ethanol and market share in selected member states, 2005

Table 6: Summary for implementation for directive, 2003/30

Regulatory or control measures

Biofuel sales obligation

Table 7: Biofuel share and indicative targets in EU member states, 2003 to 2010

Table 8: List of selected EU member states that have

implemented biofuel obligations

Procurement measures

Direct user incentives

The economic and environmental impact of biofuel promotion

Multilateral negotiations for biofuels market

Biofuel blends

United States

Table 9: U.S. biofuel tax incentives administered by the Internal Revenue Service Canada

Next-Generation Technologies

Figure 2: Overview of automotive conversion routes

Biofuels with Economic Potential

Fischer-Tropsch diesel

Biomethanol

Bio-dimethylether

Mixed alcohol fuels

Cellulosic ethanol

Major producers

Other major companies involved in cellulosic ethanol production

Hydrothermal upgrading diesel

2,5-Dimethylfuran

Pyrolysis oil

Bio-synthetic natural gas

Future outlook

Table 10: Summary of next-generation biofuels analyzed in this repor

Abstract

Next-generation biofuels are liquid or gaseous fuels made from biomass—any organic matter including all plant-derived materials as well as animal manure. They promise cleaner fuel not only compared with conventional fuels, but also with first generation bio-fuels such as biodiesel and bioethanol, and have several other advantages over both.

These next generation biofuels can use a much wider range of feedstock. As a result, feedstock availability for next-generation biofuels is estimated to be double that of first-generation biofuels. This abundance of feedstock offers many possibilities for development and a variety of new technology processes and also helps to reduce biofuel production costs. The feedstock is derived from non-food biomass and does not compete with food production. The next-generation biofuels are cleaner because of lower greenhouse emissions, are of better quality and energy content, more cost effective, and in most cases, do not require any engine modifications when used as fuel for transportation.

Today’s biofuels are characterized by rapid development and change. The most common biofuels are biodiesel, such as rapeseed methyl ester (RME) made from vegetable oil, and bioethanol and its derivative ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE), which is made from sugar and starch crops. Such first-generation biofuels will still be used in the short and medium term and will be complemented by next-generation biofuels. So there is a race among the industry participants to see who will succeed in converting biomass to a transportation fuel faster and at lower cost.

These next-generation biofuels have reached various development stages and some of them are expected to be introduced in the market as early as 2010-2015. The major current and potential markets for biomass and biomass-related technologies are transportation fuels, organic chemicals and materials, and electricity.

Each next-generation biofuel has its advantages and disadvantages. In the end, the best ones are those which can be produced at a lower cost, over a sustained period of time, and do not affect natural resources.

This report discusses next-generation biofuels that can be used as transportation fuels and for which biomass is currently the only renewable source. It examines three aspects of next-generation biofuels: the technologies, the potential biofuels made from these technologies, and their development stages.

The intention of this report is to give a general overview and an independent insight into the new technologies and potential next-generation biofuels. It examines crucial issues, such as:
  • Fuel properties
  • New technologies available and their development stages
  • Challenges and how the industry is tackling them
  • Regulatory issues
The report discusses and compares next-generation biofuels made from biomass related to the following materials:
  • Waste biomass
  • Agricultural residues, including stover (the dried stalks and leaves of a cereal crop) and straw (from maize, cereal, rapeseed, flax/hemp, grass seed hay, rice, oats, amaranth)
  • Forest residues: logging residues from harvest operations, residues from forest management, thinning wood, (bark, wood chips, sawdust, residue wood)
  • Mill residues: primary and secondary processing mill residues, food processing residues, demolition wood
  • Animal manure: solid manure (chicken manure), liquid manure (cattle, pig, sheep manure)
  • Municipal solid waste: municipal sewage sludge, organic wastes
  • Produced biomass from dedicated energy crops
  • Lignocellulosic crops: willows, poplars, eucalyptus
  • Herbaceous lignocellulosic crops: miscanthus, switchgrass, common reed, reed canarygrass, giant reed, Cynara cardunculus
The following biofuels are covered:
  • Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) diesel
  • Higher mixed alcohol fuels
  • Hydrothermal upgrading (HTU) diesel
  • Pyrolysis oil
  • Bio-dimethyl ether (DME)
  • Biomethanol
  • 2,5-Dimethylfuran (DMF)
  • Cellulosic ethanol
  • Bio-synthetic natural gas (SNG)
Demand in the new biofuels market is partly politically driven, in that it is created by the effort to reduce greenhouse emissions and oil dependence. Cooperation among new biofuel producers, carmakers, energy producers, and governments would make the transition to these new biofuels much easier.

Demand in the biofuels market is also encouraged by the effort to reduce the dependence on oil. Ambitious biofuel targets set by governments and generous incentives strongly boost demand.

The primary and secondary research for this report was conducted by Kline consultants and subject matter experts in the United States and Europe, who are familiar with the latest technical advances in this field and the markets where they are applicable.

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