Mobile WiMAX: Global Opportunities, Strategies & Forecasts, 2007 - 2013

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Dec. 1, 2007 - 194 Pages

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast

Figure ES.1: Global Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region

Cumulative, 2007 - 2013

Figure ES.2: Global Mobile WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (m) by Region

Figure ES.3: Top 20 Mobile WiMAX Country Markets 2013 Subscriber (000’s)

Personal Broadband Key Market Drivers

Personal Connectivity

The Emerging Mobile Generation

New Applications and Services

Table ES.1: Top Applications & Services as Ranked by Survey Respondents

The Need for Mobility

Key Market Trends for Mobile WiMAX

Main WiMAX Drivers

Main WiMAX Inhibitors

Mobile WiMAX: Market Status

Operator Case Studies

Vendor Profiles

Recommendations

Mobile WiMAX Service Providers

Mobile WiMAX Vendors

1. Mobile Broadband - The Technologies

1.1 WiMAX

1.1.1 OFDM

Figure 1.1: OFDM Spectrum

1.2 Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005)

Figure 1.2: WiMAX Timeline

Figure 1.3: Difference between OFDM and OFDMA

Table 1.1: Scalable OFDM: Sub Carrier Permutations

1.3 Flash OFDM

Figure 1.4: Network Layer Architecture for Flash OFDM

1.4 UMTS-TDD

1.5 HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)

Figure 1.5: HSDPA Performance Improvements

Figure 1.6: LTE Migration to Packet Core

1.6 CDMA 1X EVDO & UMB

1.7 Technology Comparisons

Table 1.2: Key Parameter Comparisons

1.7.1 Coverage vs Throughput

1.7.2 Frequency Reuse and Spectral Efficiency

1.7.3 Frequency Selective Fading

Figure 1.7: Frequency Selective Fading: CDMA vs OFDM

1.7.4 Power Control

1.7.5 Adaptive Modulation and Coding

1.7.6 Soft Handoff

1.7.7 Cell Breathing

1.7.8 Smart Antennas

1.8 Duplexing Techniques

1.8.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)

Figure 1.8: Frequency Division Duplexing

1.8.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)

Figure 1.9: Time Division Duplexing

1.9 Industry Associations

1.9.1 WiMAX Forum

i. Marketing Working Group

ii. Service Provider Working Group

iii. Regulatory Working Group

iv. Technical Working Group

v. Network Working Group

vi. Applications Working Group

vii. Certification Working Group

viii. Global Roaming Working Group

ix. Evolutionary Technical Working Group

1.9.2 WiMAX Certification

i. Development of Test Scripts and Validation

ii. Lab Preparation

iii. Validation of Test Scripts

iv. Certification Testing

a. Conformance Testing

b. Interoperability Testing

1.9.3 WiMAX Spectrum Owners Alliance (WiSOA)

i. Roaming Working Group

ii. Developing Economies Working Group

iii. Specification & Joint Procurement Working Group

1.9.4 GSM Association (GSMA)

i. Billing and Accounting Roaming Group

ii. Inter-working Roaming Expert Group

iii. Security Group

iv. Fraud Forum

v. Service Review Group

vi. Devices Group

vii. Transferred Account Data Interchange Group

viii. Interconnect Working Group

1.9.5 CDMA Development Group (CDG)

2. Personal Broadband Market Drivers

2.1 Personal Connectivity

Figure 2.1: The Future of Connectivity, Content, Consumption and Context

Figure 2.2: OECD Broadband Penetration and GDP per Capita

2.2 The Emerging Mobile Generation

Figure 2.3: UK Mobile Youth Ownership by Age

2.3 New Applications and Services

2.3.1 The Emergence of 3G and Mobile Content

Figure 2.4: The Evolution of Mobile Applications

Figure 2.5: Voice vs Data ARPU 2006 Estimated

Figure 2.6: UK Text Messaging Year-on-Year Growth (based on millions of SMS/MMS per quarter)

Figure 2.7: Global Mobile Subscribers (m) in 2007 by Region

Figure 2.8: Global 3G Subscriber Base (%) by Country/Region in 2006

2.3.2 Future Applications and Services

2.3.3 Video iPod and iPhone Ignite Portable Video Revolution

2.4 The Need for Mobility

2.4.1 Mobile Phones and Laptops

Figure 2.9: Worldwide Fixed vs. Mobile Lines per 100 Inhabitants

Figure 2.10: Consumers are Driving Mobility

2.4.2 Mobile Access to Desktop PC Content

Figure 2.11: Orb Service on a PDA Accessing TV on the Desktop

3. Market Trends for Mobile WiMAX

3.1 Introduction

3.2 WiMAX Drivers

Table 3.1: Top WiMAX Drivers as Ranked by Survey Respondents

3.2.1 100% IP

3.2.2 Lack of Infrastructure in Developing Countries

3.2.3 Attractive for Greenfield Operators

3.2.4 Spectrum Availability & Efficiency

3.2.5 High QoS & Data Rate

3.3 WiMAX Inhibitors

Table 3.2: Top WiMAX Inhibitors as Ranked by Survey Respondents

3.3.1 Widespread Commercial Availability Unlikely Before 2009

3.3.2 Poor Mobility

3.3.3 New Network Build Required

3.3.4 Service Differentiation

3.4 Conclusion

3.4.1 Devices

3.4.2 Cost

3.4.3 Complementary or Competing Technologies?

Table 3.3: Complementary or Competing Technologies? (Views of Survey Respondents)

4. Mobile WiMAX: Market Status

4.1 North America

4.1.1 Overall Status

4.1.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.1: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.1.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.2: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.2 South America

4.2.1 Overall Status

Table 4.3: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.2.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.4: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.2.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.5: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.3 Western Europe

4.3.1 Overall Status

Table 4.6: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.3.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.7: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.3.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.8: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.4 Eastern Europe

4.4.1 Overall Status

Table 4.9: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.4.2 Contract Examples

Table 4.10: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.5 Far East & China

4.5.1 Overall Status

Table 4.11: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.5.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.12: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.5.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.13: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.6 Indian Sub Continent

4.6.1 Overall Status

Table 4.14: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.6.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.15: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.6.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.16: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.7 Rest of Asia Pacific

4.7.1 Overall Status

Table 4.17: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.7.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.18: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.8 Africa & Middle East

4.8 Overall Status

Table 4.19: Mobile WiMAX Announcements 2007 to Date

4.8.2 Trial Examples

Table 4.20: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 to Date

4.8.3 Contract Examples

Table 4.21: Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Date

4.9 Conclusion

5. Operator Case Studies

5.1 Altech

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

5.2 Danske Telecom

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

5.3 DigitalBridge Communications

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

5.4 FREEDOM4

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. WiMAX Trial Details

iv. WiMAX Strategy

5.5 Nth Air

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. WiMAX Trial Details

iv. WiMAX Trial Feedback and Future Developments

5.6 Urban WiMAX

i. Company Background

ii. Products & Services Overview

iii. WiMAX Network Description

iv. Future Developments

6. Vendor Strategies

6.1 Semiconductor Vendors

6.1.1 Atmel Corporation

i. The Company

ii. Key Markets

6.1.2 NXP Semiconductors

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

Figure 6.1: NXP Value Creation Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2 Subsystem & Software Vendors

6.2.1 AIRCOM International

i. The Company

ii. Products and Services

a. Consultancy Services

b. Software Solutions (ENTERPRISE 6.0)

c. Competence Development

d. Contractor Services

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.2 Andrew Corporation

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Solutions for 3G

iv. Mobile/WiMAX Strategy

v. Customers

6.2.3 Aricent

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.4 Arieso

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.5 Harris Stratex Networks

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.6 Sasken Communication Technology

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.7 Spirent

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.2.8 SyChip

i. The Company

ii. Products & Services

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.3 System Vendors

6.3.1 Airspan

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.3.2 Alvarion

i. The Company

ii. Products

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.3.3 Motorola

i. The Company

ii. Products and Services

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

6.3.4 Zyxel

i. The Company

ii. Products

Figure: 6.1: ZyXEL WiMAX Product Line

iii. Strategy

iv. Customers

7. Global Mobile WiMAX Forecast

7.1 Subscriber Forecasting Technique

7.1.1 Methodology and Assumptions

Figure 7.1: Types of WiMAX Access Possible Under the IEEE Standards

7.1.2 Geographical Splits

7.2 Key Factors

7.2.1 Handset Issues

7.2.2 Regulatory Issues

i. World Radiocommunications Conference Agreement

ii. European Commission

iii. Spectrum Auctions

iv. Further Countries

7.2.3 Technical Spectrum Issues

Figure 7.2: 2.5GHz vs. 3.5Ghz

7.2.4 Market Upside Opportunities

7.2.5 ARPU

Figure 7.3: Mobile Broadband Forecast ARPU ($) by Region, 2007-2013

Table 7.1: Mobile Broadband Forecast ARPU ($) by Region, 2007-2013

7.2.6 Mobile WiMAX Device Pricing

Table 7.2: Mobile WiMAX Device Wholesale Pricing Forecast ($), 2007-2013 132

7.3 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast

Figure 7.4: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region All Technologies

Cumulative, 2007 - 2012

Table 7.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region All Technologies

Cumulative, 2007 - 2012

Figure 7.5: Global Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast (m) by Technology

Cumulative, 2007 - 2012

Table 7.4: Global Mobile Broadband Subscriber Forecast (m) by Technology

Cumulative 2007 - 2012

7.4 Global Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast

Figure 7.6: Global Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region

Cumulative, 2007 - 2013

Table 7.5: Global Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (m) by Region Cumulative,

2007 - 2013

Figure 7.7: Global Mobile WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (m) by Region

Figure 7.8: Top 20 Mobile WiMAX Country Markets 2013 Subscribers (000’s)137

7.5 Global Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast

Figure 7.9: Global Mobile WiMAX Service Revenue Forecast ($m p.a.) by Region,

2007 - 2013

Table 7.6: Global Mobile WiMAX Service Revenue Forecast ($m p.a.) by Region,

2007 - 2013

7.6 Global Mobile WiMAX Device Forecast

Figure 7.10: Global Mobile WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m p.a.) by Region,

2007 - 2013

Table 7.7: Global Mobile WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m p.a.) by Region,

2007 - 2013

8. North America Mobile WiMAX Forecast

8.1 North America Overview

8.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

8.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 8.1: North America Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 8.1: North America Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 8.2: North America Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 8.2: North America Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 8.3: North America Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 8.3: N. America Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

8.2.2 Canada Market Commentary

8.2.3 USA Market Commentary

9. South America Mobile WiMAX Forecast

9.1 South America Overview

9.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

9.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 9.1: South America Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 9.1: South America Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 9.2: South America Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 9.2: South America Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 9.3: South America Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 9.3: South America Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

9.2.2 Brazil Market Commentary

9.2.3 Chile Market Commentary

9.2.4 Mexico Market Commentary

9.2.5 Venezuela Market Commentary

10. Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Forecast

10.1 Western Europe Overview

10.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

10.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 10.1: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 10.1: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 10.2: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 10.2: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 10.3: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 10.3: Western Europe Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

10.2.2 France Market Commentary

10.2.3 Germany Market Commentary

10.2.4 Italy Market Commentary

10.2.5 Netherlands Market Commentary

10.2.6 Norway Market Commentary

10.2.7 Spain Market Commentary

10.2.8 UK Market Commentary

11. Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Forecast

11.1 Eastern Europe Overview

11.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

11.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 11.1: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 11.1: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 11.2: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 11.3: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 11.3: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 11.3: Eastern Europe Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

11.2.2 Poland Market Commentary

11.2.3 Russia Market Commentary

12. Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Forecast

12.1 Far East & China Overview

12.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

12.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 12.1: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 12.1: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 12.2: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 12.2: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 12.3: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 12.3: Far East & China Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

12.2.2 China Market Commentary

12.2.3 Japan Market Commentary

12.2.4 S. Korea Market Commentary

12.2.5 Taiwan Market Commentary

13. Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Forecast

13.1 Indian Sub Continent Overview

13.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

13.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 13.1: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 13.1: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 13.2: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast

($m) by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 13.2: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast

($m) by Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 13.3: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 13.3: Indian Sub Continent Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

13.2.2 India Market Commentary

13.2.3 Pakistan Market Commentary

14. Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Forecast

14.1 Rest of Asia Pacific Overview

14.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

14.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 14.1: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 14.1: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 14.2: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 14.2: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 14.3: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 14.3: Rest of Asia Pacific Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m) by

Country 2007 - 2013

14.2.2 Australia Market Commentary

14.2.3 Malaysia Market Commentary

14.2.4 Thailand Market Commentary

15. Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Forecast

15.1 Africa & Middle East Overview

15.2 Subscriber, Service Revenue & Device Forecasts

15.2.1 Country Market Size & Growth

Figure 15.1: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Table 15.1: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Subscriber Forecast (000’s) by

Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 15.2: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast

($m) by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 15.2: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Figure 15.3: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

Table 15.3: Africa & Middle East Mobile WiMAX Devices Market Forecast ($m)

by Country 2007 - 2013

15.2.2 Saudi Arabia Market Commentary

15.2.3 South Africa Market Commentary

Abstract

This forward looking report forecasts subscriber numbers and service revenues from 2007 to 2013 for all mobile broadband technologies globally and by region and for 33 countries (mobile WiMAX only). This unique study first provides an understanding of the technologies that will enable the delivery of Mobile Broadband applications and services and then explores the market drivers and inhibitors of 802.16e Mobile WiMAX whilst giving an overview of its market status by region, including detailed examples of in-service systems and trials. The report also provides a number of in depth case studies analysing operators that have either deployed, or plan to deploy 802.16e Mobile WiMAX networks. The complete report also focuses on the equipment vendors that are active in the area of Mobile WiMAX and reviews their strategies.

Key questions the report answers:

• How large will the Mobile WiMAX market be over the next 5 years?
• Which will be the top Mobile WiMAX country markets in the future?
• How will broadband ARPU trends change in the future?
• What do key industry players believe are the market drivers and inhibitors for Mobile WiMAX?
• How much service revenue will be generated by Mobile WiMAX?
• What are the factors that will determine the success of Mobile WiMAX?
• What are the strategies of the leading mobile WiMAX chip, software and systems vendors?
• How are mobile WiMAX network operators deploying their networks?
• Where have mobile WiMAX network contracts been awarded in 2007?
• Which countries have started mobile WiMAX trials in 2007?

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